Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251426
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1026 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east today resulting in
southerly winds that will bring increasing heat and humidity.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the
weekend, particularly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will be east of the area today allowing for
southerly flow and warm temperatures. Went close to guidance
with high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s.

There is not a lot of forcing today, but there is some
instability that develops across far southeastern portions of
the forecast area across the lower Scioto Valley and therefore a
few storms will be possible there this afternoon with daytime
heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening into Saturday morning weak PVA will approach the
area from the west which will likely bring some form of
weakening showers and thunderstorms into the area Saturday
morning. During the afternoon Saturday a summer like pattern
will begin to take hold as humidity and atmospheric moisture in
general returns to the Ohio Valley. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop Saturday afternoon during peak
heating as forecast soundings quickly destabilize. Shear values
are extremely low, so am not expecting much in the way of
severe. As mentioned above, it appears to be a day of garden
variety showers and thunderstorms. Saturday night, the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will slowly decrease as daytime
heating is lost.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will push east across the southern Great
Lakes through Saturday night. Between this and the loss of diurnal
heating, we should see a decreasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms from west to east across our area Saturday night.

Some mid level ridging will try to build into the region Sunday into
Monday, with our area in between the tropical system to the south
and an upper level low over the Rockies. This will allow for
temperatures to push into mid to upper 80s for highs on Sunday and
then the upper 80s to near 90 for highs on Monday. The models are
suggesting the possibility of a weak boundary pushing down into the
region on Sunday. This, combined with decent instabilities, will
result in the possibility for isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. By Monday, there is little in the
way of forcing so think any thunderstorm activity will be fairy
limited.

Moisture associated with the tropical system to our south will work
slowly north through mid week. This could allow for a few showers or
thunderstorms to sneak into our southern areas by Tuesday, with a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms then pushing north across
the rest of our area for Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with highs mainly in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slide east of the TAF sites today
with winds veering from the southwest. All sites will remain VFR
through today with only some passing high clouds.

Saturday morning the next upper level disturbance will approach
the area with weakening showers and thunderstorms possible.
Saturday afternoon, moisture rich air will move across the Ohio
Valley allowing forecast soundings to quickly destabilize. As of
now have left the TAF sites dry, but future TAF packages will
likely have to start mentioning thunder.

OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines


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