053
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

- There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms today, Friday, and
  Saturday, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains.

- Warm temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
  Saturday being the warmest day this forecast.

- A cold front will intrude upon the region beginning Sunday
  night, bringing much cooler temperatures and respectable chances
  of rain next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The heat is on, but that doesn`t mean there won`t be a chance of
storms. That will be the story to close this week. Deterministic and
ensemble models depict 500 mb geopotential heights above 588
decameters Thursday and Friday, with 1000-500 mb thicknesses near or
above 576 decameters, indicating above average temperatures in an in
the expanded column of warm air that has built over the southern
CONUS after the brief cooler temperatures earlier this week.
Shortwave IR and Air Mass RGB satellite imagery shows little to not
cloud cover early this morning. Mostly clear skies into early
afternoon will allow for ample diurnal solar radiation, which
coupled with the high May solar angle, will allow temperatures to
soar at least 10 degrees above average. This translates to mid to
upper 90s, upper 90s to triple digits along the Pecos River, Midland-
Odessa area into northeast Permian Basin, southern Rio Grande
basins, and upper 80s to lower 90s in higher elevations such as
Lower Trans Pecos into Marfa Plateau. Clouds increase later in the
day, but PoPs higher than 15% located farhter northeast only extend
into northeasternmost parts of Permian Basin this afternoon through
this evening. Higher-res CAMs also depict most convection staying
northeast of the area. Therefore, we can expect hot temperatures and
a low probability of storms today. Southerly winds back to
southeasterly today as a lee trough sharpens into a dryline, per WPC
Surface Analysis. Southeasterly winds could become gusty from the SE
NM plains into Stockton Plateau and parts of the Permian Basin this
afternoon. This allows dew point temperatures in the 50s to the
lower 60s F to advect westward to at least the 103W meridian. Apart
from highest elevations of the Lower Trans Pecos into Marfa Plateau,
ensembles are consistent in showing a high probability of highs
greater than 90F today, with a medium probability of highs above 95F
across the Upper Trans Pecos into most of the Permian Basin as well
as the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. There is also a medium to
high probability of highs up to greater than 99F over the Upper
Trans Pecos, southwesternmost Presidio Valley, and southernmost Big
Bend.

These warm temperatures will be slow to cool off tonight even as
only scattered high cloud cover forecast allows for radiation
cooling, so NBM lows only fall into the 60s to lower 70s for most of
the area. In the Canadian GEPS ensemble, there is a high probability
for most if not all of the area of lows greater than 65F, medium to
high probability of lows at least 65F, and  medium to high
probability from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County of lows at
least 70F. For other ensembles such as GEFS, ENS, and Grand
Ensemble, there is still a medium to high probability of lows only
falling to 75F for the Upper Trans Pecos, southermost Rio Grande
basins, and Terrell County. This continues the stretch of warm
nights, which while not meeting heat advisory criteria, will still
feel warmer and more humid than what we`ve felt for this area since
last summer.

The dryline retreats westward again Friday morning before advancing
westward later in the day. This allows dew point temperatures to
surge into the 60s F for most of the region north/east of Davis
Mountains (>70% probability in ensembles). Warm and humid air,
amplification of the back end of a short wave over the Missouri
Valley increasing northwesterly low to mid tropospheric shear to 30
to 40 knots adequate for organization of rotating updrafts
sustaining long-lived storms capable of producing severe weather,
CAPE at least 500-1000 J/kg with mean values 2000 J/kg or above east
of the dryline and higher than Thursday , and elongated hodographs
with high winds out of the northwest in the upper troposphere
overlying west-southwesterly winds in the mid troposphere and
southerly winds in the lower troposphere: all indicate potential for
more active convective weather than today. SPC has outlined Stockton
Plateau into Permian Basin in a MRGL risk for Friday, up to 8 C/km
lapse rates allowing for large vertical non hydrostatic motions and
mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface in thunderstorm
updrafts. Damaging winds look to be the main threat with storms
Friday as LCLs remain high (> 2500 meters in high-res CAMs), SRH
mostly below 80 m2/s2 magnitude threshold needed for tornadogenesis,
freezing level stays higher up in the mid troposphere allowing for
sufficient melting of any large hail in spite of low-level and mid-
level RH below 70% outside of heavy precipitation. NBM PPs still
show isolated 20 to 30% PoPs from the leeward side of the Davis
Mountains into the Stockton Plateau. Higher-res CAMs reflect this,
indicating highest coverage of reflectivity in all CAMs over this
region. These storms are expected to congeal and grow upscale,
moving to the east/southeast. Upscale growth into the evening will
enhance the damaging wind threat. Highs will not be much different
than Thursday. NBM is still showing much lower PoPs than CAMS
indicate, so rainfall accumulations of only a few hundredths of an
inch are indicated in grids. For ensembles, similar with low spread
just a few hundredths of an inch are indicated. Therefore, despite
CAMs showing storms over portions of the area today and tomorrow,
the biggest story will remain the hot temperatures. However, a
pattern change will be on the way later this weekend and continuing
into next week. Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday night, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be
under an upper ridge.  However, a trough will be making landfall on
the west coast, shunting this feature to the east and putting the
area under progressive southwest flow aloft. A strong, 50+kt LLJ is
set to develop, retreating the dryline to the western CWA border,
and even farther west into Mexico, where convection is forecast to
be ongoing.  A few cells could cross the river into the Presidio
Valley during the evening.

Saturday, thicknesses peak for perhaps the warmest day this
forecast, and the warmest day so far this year as highs top out in
the triple digits for much of the area, around 10-12 F above normal.
Convection is forecast to develop south of the border, but some of
this activity could develop as far north as the Davis
Mountains/Stockton Plateau during the afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the trough continues pushing into the region, but attenuates
somewhat.  Thicknesses start a downward trend, shaving 3-4 F off
Saturday`s highs.  Sunday night, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop,
banking the dryline up against the higher terrain out west.  To the
north, a cold front will intrude upon the area, resulting in
respectable chances of convection along and east of the dryline.
Long-range models increase deep layer bulk shear over Southeast New
Mexico and areas of West Texas to the east, so we wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few cells go severe as the front pushes in.

Monday, the cold front pushes farther into the area, almost to the
Presidio Valley by 00Z Tuesday.  Highs will drop below normal most
locations along and north of I-10, with a continuing chance of
convection, mainly east where richer boundary layer moisture
resides.  Strong, deep-layer shear remains in place.

Tuesday/Wednesday, CAA continues, but surface flow slowly veers to
east.  This will continue to advect ample Gulf moisture into the
region, sending the dryline to El Paso and beyond.  By Wednesday
afternoon, highs should be stumbling along ~ 8-10 F below normal,
making it feel more like mid April than late May.  Easterly upslope
flow will result in decent chances of convection, and this will
combine w/overcast skies to assist in the cooler temperatures.  If
trends go as they usually do, rain chances will decrease 5-10% a day
between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR VIS and CIGs forecast throughout TAF period. Southerly winds
back to southeasterly at terminals and become gusty above 12 knots
00Z-03Z Thursday. Gusts at or above 20 knots expected for
terminals in most of SE NM plains into central and southern
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau after 02Z Thursday, and
continuing into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  68  99  73 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                100  65 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  100  72 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton           100  71 100  72 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  67  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    97  64  98  66 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                    92  62  93  63 /  10  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  70  99  73 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   98  70  98  73 /  10   0  10  10
Wink                    100  70 102  70 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94