731
FXUS64 KMAF 191050
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Yesterday was hot, but it`s only up from here! Similar conditions
are in place today, but with a bit stronger southwesterly, downslope
flow. 850 mb temperatures will push 32C-34C across much of the area
today. Deep mixing will push highs well above normal and into the
100s for most. This will be the first time above the century mark
for most of the Permian Basin including Midland and Odessa. While
hot, we will stay several degrees below record highs. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the Davis Mountains (highs in the mid
to upper 90s) south to the Rio Grande (highs around 110). After a
very mild night, Monday looks like a repeat of today. Will likely
need to extend and possibly expand the Heat Advisory. Dry conditions
will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

If you came to the long term looking for the cooler weather, you`re
out of luck. An upper level trough will progress across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, and compressional warming from downsloping
westerly winds maintain above-normal temperatures in the 90s for
most Tuesday afternoon. As the trough sweeps northeastward, a
backdoor cold front will push down into Texas Wednesday morning,
bringing a small reprieve from this abnormally hot May. Post-front,
highs may ~only~ reach the low to mid 90s north of I-10 Wednesday
afternoon, but anything below triple digits is a welcome change. As
the front progresses southward on Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
move across the Desert Southwest and help initiate a few storms
across the far eastern Permian Basin late Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Moisture in the lower levels will be lacking during this
time, so even if a few storms manage to develop, there won`t be much
precipitation to go along with them. Unfortunately, this looks to be
the only chance for rain in the long term.

Our "reprieve" from the heat will be short lived as upper level
ridging builds back in following the departure of the shortwave
trough. Temperatures rebound into the upper 90s by Friday with 100s
returning possibly this weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR with gusty southwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Conditions have turned dry for spots along and west of the Trans
Pecos where little rain has fallen in the past several months. Under
a warming and drying trend this week, humidity will fall to single
digits across much of the region each afternoon, with poor overnight
recovery out west. This, along with critically dry fuels and ERCs
approaching the 90th-97th percentile, will maintain near-critical
fire weather conditions for much of the week. Luckily, 20ft winds
will remain fairly light until Tuesday as an upper level trough
passes to the north and westerly winds increase. On Wednesday, a
cold front will push down and cool temperatures a bit, but moisture
will still back lacking and near-critical fire weather conditions
will continue. A few storms will be possible across the far east
Wednesday evening into Thursday with lightning bringing possible
fire starts, but storms don`t look to coincide with the driest
spots. As storms move out Thursday, another warming and drying trend
sets in with fire concerns increasing late week and into the weekend.

Given humidity as low as 6 percent today and critically dry fuels
with ERCs around the 90th percentile, a Fire Danger Statement is in
effect for this afternoon and early evening across far West Texas,
Southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  69 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                100  64 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  104  71 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           104  68 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    99  62  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    96  56  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    101  68 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  101  69 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    105  65 104  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...29