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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along
an advancing frontal boundary this evening. Confidence is higher
for storms to impact CNM over the next few hours where areal
coverage is higher. Will monitor and amd if thunderstorms
continue to develop INVOF of the remaining terminals. Otherwise,
convection should begin to wane after sunset with increasing E-NE
winds, especially at MAF and INK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Upper ridge centered over TX today will shift west becoming centered
over NV Monday as an upper trough moves across the NE US. By Tuesday
morning the next upper low will arrive on the NW Coast.

A weak cold front pushed down into the area overnight resulting in a
bit cooler temperatures today for the northern half of the area.
This front should continue to sag southward into the southern CWA
tonight.  Will have an E to NE wind tonight and Monday.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Pass tonight.

There is a chance of storms tonight along and behind the front.
Based on current cu field have expanded low pops this afternoon and
evening across Srn Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos... and into
the Big Bend Region. After midnight best chance of rain will be over
SE NM. On Monday highest rain chance will shift south across the
Lower Trans Pecos. With PW over 1 inch some locations could receive
locally heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through  Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

No significant changes to the long term from the previous forecast
package. Northwest flow aloft on Tuesday will keep highs relatively
on the cool side, in the upper 80s to low 90s. The upper ridge will
be over the Four Corners by this point, and models indicate that a
shortwave trough will push down through the area Tuesday afternoon,
providing the best chance for precipitation that we`ve had in
awhile. Forecast soundings show PW values between 1.25-2.00" for
much of the CWA on Tuesday, indicating the potential for some
locally heavy rainfall with these storms. Currently, the greatest
chances for storms on Tuesday look to be across the Davis Mnts and
Marfa Plateau, as well as up into Southeast New Mexico.

The ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward through the later
half of the week, and thickness will be increasing each day due to
this. Models show that an inverted trough will attempt to move into
the area and upslope thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon
through the end of the forecast period. Have gone ahead and put in
POPs mainly across the western half of the CWA each
afternoon/evening due to this. The inverted trough will also help
keep temperatures across the CWA from warming above normal despite
increasing thickness as the ridge shifts east. Models diverge on the
movement of the inverted trough this far out, but temperatures for
the end of the week and through the weekend look to be in the mid-
90s for most.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  87  67  90 /  20  20  10  30
Carlsbad                 63  85  64  89 /  40  20  30  40
Dryden                   74  93  71  93 /  10  30  20  50
Fort Stockton            68  89  67  90 /  20  40  20  50
Guadalupe Pass           56  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  40
Hobbs                    59  83  63  86 /  30  20  20  40
Marfa                    59  84  57  83 /  10  30  10  60
Midland Intl Airport     66  87  67  89 /  20  20  20  40
Odessa                   68  87  69  89 /  20  20  20  40
Wink                     67  89  67  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Monday for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...24