072
FXUS64 KMAF 202307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

- Dangerously cold wind chills in the single digits and below zero are
  expected tonight through Tuesday morning.

- Light snow or flurries are possible over the Lower Trans Pecos
  tonight. No accumulations or impacts are expected.

- Temperatures slowly warm closer to normal by the end of this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A front loaded short term forecast begins with winds picking up
tonight as a reinforcing front is pushed across the area. Windy
conditions combined with temperatures dropping back into the
teens(and even the single digits for a few spots) make for a
dangerously cold night. For that, have continued the inherited
Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory and will keep them as
is temporally and spatially. As the front moves through the area,
gap winds become strong and persist through the night before
decreasing early Tuesday morning. Thus, have left the inherited High
Wind Warning as is. The front pushes southward and with some better
ascent and just enough low and mid level moisture, portions of Pecos
and Terrell counties may see flurries/light snow showers just after
midnight local time. The southern reaches of Terrell County may see
a brief transition to rain or freezing rain, but precipitation
amounts in any area will not be enough to cause impacts.

With the new push of colder air, highs on Tuesday reach into the mid
to upper 30s for most locations. Some spots, mainly over SE NM and
the higher terrain may only make it to freezing. The "warmest"
areas, as usual, will be along the Rio Grande where highs reach into
the 40s. Winds shift around to the south and southwest heading late
Tuesday. Tuesday night sees lows in the teens to low 20s for many
and while this is still quite cold, lighter winds keep away the need
for any cold weather products at this time.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Quasi-zonal, mid-level flow will begins to return to our forecast by
the middle of this week. While a weak cold front is expected to move
through the region during the afternoon on Wednesday, sunny skies,
increasing heights, and downsloping winds ahead of the front should
allow for warmer weather. Temperatures are likely to climb 20 to 25
degrees over Tuesday into the 50s for most locations. While this is
a welcomed improvement, this remains below normal for January.
Another frigid night is expected due to the cold front, persistent
dry air, and excellent radiational cooling as a result. Most fall
well into the 20s with even the teens hanging on for a few of the
colder locations. Temperatures end up a touch cooler on Thursday as
well with most holding in the 40s with any 50s confined to southern
portions of the area. Thursday night remains frigid in the upper
teens and 20s for the majority once again.

The pattern improves a little heading into Friday and the weekend. A
developing upper-level low pressure off of Baja will cause lee
troughing across the southern Great Plains. The southerly winds as a
result of lee troughing and modest height rises contribute to
warming temperatures. Friday sees more 50s and even low 60s for the
region with overnight seeing chilly but less frigid temperatures
near to slightly below freezing. Saturday is anticipated to see
above normal temperatures finally make a return as 60s and even 70s
make an appearance. Heading into Saturday night we can expect most
to remain above freezing with 40s for southern portions of the area.

Sunday will hopefully be another mild day for the region, but this
part of the forecast into early next week becomes uncertain. The
upper-level low over Baja should begin to progress east during this
time with another upper-level trough moving across the Great Lakes
region. This northern trough may act to push another cold front
south through the southern Great Plains resulting in colder weather
as early as Sunday afternoon. As of right now, guidance is keeping
much of the cold air at bay as everyone continues the run of near to
above normal temperatures. While this remains possible, ensemble
guidance and cluster analysis remain evenly split on the strength of
each of the two aforementioned weather systems. A stronger northern
upper-level trough would likely see the return of below normal
temperatures, but if the upper-low is closer and stronger, southerly
winds could slow or prevent the cold front from reaching the area.
These features are going to be monitored as we head through the week
and we should hopefully get a better idea in the coming forecasts.
Other than these temperatures, the entire forecast remains dry as a
bone.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, but a few high clouds
will be present. A cold front will move through the terminals late
tonight/Tuesday morning, before winds relax and back to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               37  15  36  21 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 37  13  38  17 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   43  23  38  20 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Stockton            46  17  36  21 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           34  15  30  19 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    33  11  33  19 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    51  11  36  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     38  16  34  21 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   38  16  34  21 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     40  17  36  20 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 10
     AM CST /9 AM MST/ Tuesday for Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Tuesday
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44