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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1029 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. A cold front will move through early in
the morning, shifting winds to the north with gusts increasing to
20-25kt sustained. Otherwise, gusts will subside by the afternoon
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the northern Rocky Mountains/northern plains
states with an upper low extending south over the Pacific Ocean
south of California. Temperatures across West Texas and southeast
New Mexico will warm up a little from yesterday to near normal aided
by a strengthening surface trough and southerly winds. A cold front
will begin moving into the area Sunday morning as the previously
mentioned upper trough digs southward and moves over the central
part of the country. The upper trough will move eastward over the
Mississippi River with a cut off low remaining south of California.
Temperatures across the CWA will cool a little behind the front on
Sunday, but high temperatures will still mostly be in the 60s.
Temperatures will warm up on Monday with highs mostly in the 70s as
surface winds become more westerly and northwesterly. The previously
mentioned upper trough moves over the east coast on Tuesday with
another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. This upper pattern
will leave the CWA under westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming up a little into the mid 70s across the Permian Basin.

The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward and
will combine with the upper low south of California on Wednesday.
Precipitation chances increase across the CWA beginning Tuesday
night as upper lift from the upper system to the west begins to
influence the area. Temperatures will cool a little across the area
on Wednesday as a result of the rain and increase in cloud cover. A
portion of the upper trough breaks off and moves over the Upper
Midwest with an upper low over the southwest U.S. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Thursday associated with the upper
trough over the Upper Midwest. Cooler temperatures are expected to
continue for Friday into next Saturday. Models start differing quite
a bit in the upper pattern late next week so do not have as much
confidence in precipitation output. Therefore, went lower on POPs
than NBM during that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  61  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  61  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  69  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  44  64  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  56  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  62  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  62  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  62  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  64  38  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/99