Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Area radars show the
cold front and associated convection has cleared all terminals.
a low-based cu field should develop most locations by late
morning, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL, with little chance of convective
redevelopment. Otherwise, sfc flow will begin veering SE over the
next 24 hours, w/skies scattering out by sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Yesterday`s front brought some much needed rainfall to portions of
the area, with showers and thunderstorms continuing this morning
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Expect this area to
remain the focus for additional storm activity today, and while
severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning could accompany storms that develop. Expect
this axis of rainfall to continue to shift westward and southward
through the day, with rain coming to an end areawide by later this
evening. Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler, with highs
for most in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees, with middle 90s
and up confined to the Rio Grande Valley. Drier air will continue
to filter into the region today in the wake of the front, with
dewpoints expected to drop into the 50s this afternoon, and
localized areas in the 40s overnight tonight. Given clear skies
overnight, the low dewpoints will allow for unseasonably cool
early morning lows in the lower to middle 60s for most of
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, and even some upper 50s
possible across higher terrain and portions of northern Lea county
and the northwestern Permian Basin. Temperatures Wednesday will
be a couple degrees warmer, however, lows Wednesday night look to
remain cool, in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area.

Dry conditions will be the rule through the rest of this week and
into the weekend, as the upper pattern remains relatively
stagnant with the upper ridge anchored over the Four Corners
Region, and persistent northerly to northeasterly flow aloft. At
the surface, northeasterly to easterly surface flow will maintain
dry low levels, with moisture return not anticipated until late
this week as winds shift to the southeast. 850mb temperatures will
also remain around +22C to +25C through the end of the week,
yielding temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, close to
normal for this time of year, or even a degree or two below for
some locations. Temperatures begin to warm up late in the weekend,
though another change could come on Monday as the upper ridge
retrogrades westward, yielding potential rainy and cooler
conditions for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       86  64  90  65 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  69  95  68 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  87  64  90  65 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 77  62  83  65 /  50  10   0   0
Hobbs                          85  61  89  63 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          82  54  85  53 /  40  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         88  62  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           90  63  92  65 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44


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