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000
FXUS64 KMAF 031700
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for all terminals. Cu
field will develop over KMAF/KFST this afternoon shortly after the
current stratus moves out. Slight chance of TSRA over KFST between
20-00z, but probs are low, so have left out of TAF. KCNM/KHOB will
have to monitor for potential complex out of NM dropping south
this evening. Low threat of TSRA, but cloud cover will increase
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge still centered over AZ this morning will build east
becoming centered over NM/TX midweek as upper trough over eastern US
moves off.  Looking out over the coming week a series of upper
troughs moving along the US/Canada border will flatten the ridge but
even out 240hrs it is still around.  This will be a hotter and drier
trend.

Showers and thunderstorms moved across SE NM into the Upper Trans
Pecos and Nrn Permian Basin overnight but rainfall totals were not
heavy. Never the less the outflow from these storms will affect
highs temps somewhat today. Have trended forecasted temps downward
but stayed above guidance.  On Tuesday should see widespread 100s
spread across the area.  As of now Wednesday looking like the
hottest day this week.  Could see limited locations along the Rio
Grande approach heat advisory criteria Tuesday with a better chance
of more locations reaching it along the Rio Grande as well as
portions of SE NM and the Permian Basin on Wednesday. Look for
highs in the 100s to continue for most of the area the rest of the
week.

Not expecting much to be left of this nocturnal precip by sunrise
but model qpf indicates could see a few morning showers/storms
possible from Van Horn to Presidio with some afternoon showers and
storms over the Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and Big Bend region.
Will include a rest of tonight period in the zones to handle the
ongoing precip.  Less rain expected tonight with some slight chance
pops skirting the SE NM counties.  After that rain chances look low
most of the week favoring the higher elevations if anything as
shifting ridge causes area to lose the influence of NW flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71 104  74 104 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       70 104  73 104 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         74 104  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72 103  74 104 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          67 101  71 104 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                          60  94  60  96 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           72 104  75 105 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         73 104  75 106 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           72 106  74 107 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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