066
FXUS64 KMAF 062317
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

- Above normal temperatures persist through Saturday.

- A strong cold front brings gusty northeasterly winds and colder
  temperatures to the area Saturday night into Sunday. High winds
  are possible at Guadalupe Pass and Carlsbad Caverns National
  Park behind the front.

- Subfreezing temperatures are forecast for portions of West Texas
  and Southeast New Mexico Monday morning, especially across the
  northern Permian Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 128 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

The weak front that moved across the Permian Basin this morning has
washed out. Winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are
becoming southwesterly to westerly under clear skies. Today will
feature well-above normal temperatures yet again, though this
morning`s front will at least help shave 3-5 degrees off of highs
compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, lows tonight generally range from
upper 40s to low-to-mid 50s. Another weak front pushes across much
of the region Friday morning. This front will knock another couple
of degrees off of tomorrow`s highs (mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s,
with higher temperatures along the Rio Grande). Nevertheless, these
temperatures are still 7-11 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Lows Saturday morning likewise drop a couple of degrees
relative to Friday morning (mid-to-upper 40s and low 50s).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Temperatures trend back up a couple of degrees Saturday, but this
warm-up will be short-lived. By Saturday evening, a front begins to
approach the northern Permian Basin. This front will be quite a bit
stronger than this morning`s front and Friday morning`s. In addition
to much cooler temperatures, it will also bring gusty winds to our
area Saturday night into Sunday morning as it pushes through the
region. One thing we will be keeping a close eye on is the necessity
for High Wind products due to gap winds in the Guadalupes and at
Carlsbad Caverns - right now our forecast has winds just hitting
criteria at these locations. In any case, cold air advection Sunday
keeps temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s areawide. The next
big thing we are keeping an eye on is Monday morning`s low
temperatures. Clear skies and light easterly winds imply effective
radiational cooling will occur Sunday night into Monday morning.
Widespread temperatures in the 30s are forecast, with some locations
in the northern Permian Basin dipping down into the upper 20s. As a
result, a few more locations (mainly in the northern Basin) may see
their first freeze of the season. Trends will be monitored, so stay
tuned for updates!

Cooler temperatures hang around Monday (60s across the board,
besides some 70s along the Rio Grande), though winds once again
become southerly as post-frontal high pressure shifts southeastward.
By the middle of next week, temperatures begin the trend up as
ridging starts to develop to the west of our area. No rain is
expected through the whole forecast period due to a lack of moisture.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions continue. A cold front shifts winds northerly
across the region between 8z-14z Friday morning. Wind speeds
remain around 10-15kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               51  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 50  78  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   54  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            57  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           53  72  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    50  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  79  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     53  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   53  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     49  79  46  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93