Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Expect SE winds less than 10kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a ridge of high pressure centered over NW Sonora,
abutted by a trough moving into the MS Valley.  To the SE, s slug of
tropical moisture is bringing heavy rainfall to the lwr Texas Gulf
Coast under an inverted trough, but will be inconsequential for West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, as this moisture is forecast to
remain coastal.

Instead, as the upper trough moves east, the ridge will build back
east, allowing triple-digit temps to return just in time to kick off
summer.  Models are in good agreement increasing thicknesses thru
Saturday, w/widespread triple digits arriving as soon as Fri
afternoon.  Temps for this forecast will peak sat, and a heat
advisory will likely be warranted.  Sat night, models bring a
shortwave/front thru Texas, w/isolated convection clipping the upper
Colorado Rvr Valley along the front.  Upstream, an upper trough will
be digging into the Rockies, flattening the ridge and bringing
thicknesses/temps down to just a few degrees above normal Tue thru
the extended.  The ridge more or less stays elongated/flat across
the CONUS.  Beginning midweek, long-range models hint at bringing an
inverted trough west into the area, for perhaps a chance of rain
over the srn zones Thu.  However, model solns are pretty divergent
by this time, so confidence in this scenario is low attm.  We`ll
keep chances on the low side.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  74 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       97  72 105  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         98  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  72 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 94  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          93  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  61  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           96  73 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  73 104  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/44


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