Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210416
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1016 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail for most of the forecast period,
but cigs should begin coming down Tue afternoon as the upper
trough moves into the region. These lwr cigs should develop ESE
into the evening, to MVFR KCNM, and IFR KHOB/KMAF, and a chance of
-RA to these terminals as well. Leeside troughing ahead of the
 system will induce gusty south winds over the NE CWA into the
 evening hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Surface ridging finally starts to wane Tue. However, with cloud
cover and the possibility of rain cooled air across the nw-w CWFA
temps will still have a cold feel, especially with increased
southerly winds. Highs mostly in the 50s, except 40s across far
nw CWFA. Models have been slowly backing off on PoPs for late Tue
PM into early Wed AM, possibly due to lack of return low-level
moisture? The location of the upper-level jet does look favorable
for precip though, especially along and n of the I-20. We will
attempt to sharpen PoP gradient from s-n, as all models are
reluctant to develop precip south into the Trans Pecos. By 00Z/Wed
there is a good overlay match-up with model QPF and lift in mid-
levels as seen by OMEGA fields. Precip quickly moves across and
out the n-ne-e CWFA between 09Z-12Z/Wed. Clearing skies after 18Z
in most areas and downslope winds of 15-20 mph from SE NM into PB
will support about a 10 degree or so warm-up. Colder air will
filter in Thur with a frontal passage and high temps will fall
back closer to normal Thur-Fri. Thereafter a slow warm-up Sat-Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  52  43  65 /   0  70  60  10
Carlsbad                       34  49  35  65 /   0  70  10  10
Dryden                         36  56  42  67 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton                  36  56  43  66 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 35  46  38  53 /   0  50  10  10
Hobbs                          33  46  35  62 /   0  90  20  10
Marfa                          29  56  33  60 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           36  51  41  65 /   0  50  30  10
Odessa                         36  51  40  65 /   0  50  20  10
Wink                           34  53  36  66 /   0  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27/44



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