Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 020438
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1038 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southwest winds will continue the next 24
hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM at 18Z, w/area
radars indicating light precipitation, mainly over the northern
Permian Basin. P-types reported have included just about everything
but FZRA, and a look at the 12Z KMAF RAOB shows why. Models have
not done a good job capturing this, but the HRRR/NAM suggest this
will taper off to the NE by mid-afternoon as the trough moves into
the Southern Plains.
Skies should clear out overnight as subsidence sets in on the
backside of the trough, and coupled w/light and variable sfc winds,
will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico wide open to a hard
freeze for most of the area as radiational cooling is optimized.
This should be the coldest night this forecast.
Weak/dirty ridging follows the trough, w/return flow kicking in
overnight, for a quick rebound to above-normal temperatures by
Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday could be our warmest day this
forecast, as afternoon temperatures top out in the mid-70s or higher
most locations, feeling more like early April than early March.
Meanwhile, a secondary trough just off the west coast is poised to
make landfall near SoCal Wednesday night, and pass through the
panhandles Thursday night. This feature has been trending north
over the past few days, and at present could kick off -SHRA in
northern Lea County Thursday morning, but that`s about it. A Pac
front will accompany the trough, followed by a secondary cold front,
which will crater temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s Saturday
afternoon. Zonal flow ensues through the weekend, and temps should
be back to the upper 70s or better most locations by Monday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 28 61 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 26 62 31 74 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 33 65 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 28 61 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 27 53 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 24 58 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 23 58 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 27 60 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 27 59 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 26 62 33 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/10