Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 282347
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Post frontal conditions with a gusty NE wind that will continue to
decrease this evening and slowly come around to the E. Storm
activity has moved east of the area but redevelopment tonight
possible. May see low clouds develop by morning at FST with MVFR
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front has pushed south into Mexico early this afternoon on
gusty northerly winds.  Temperatures are more tolerable areawide
behind the front, with readings running around 15 degrees cooler
than yesterday so far this afternoon, and winds have begun to
settle down.  There were a few showers and thunderstorms along the
cold front this morning, but prospects for additional convection/
precipitation appear slim through the rest of the afternoon.
Tonight, an approaching weak, mid level shortwave trough could
spark widely scattered showers and storms, but mainly south of
Interstate 10.  If storms develop, a couple could be strong with
perhaps nickel hail at best.  For Memorial Day, low level flow
will be easterly, upslope as the parent surface ridge resides over
the southern U.S. Plains, which will keep high temperatures near
normal Monday afternoon.  There does not appear to be much mid
level support for convection during the afternoon/evening, but we
could see thunderstorms develop in a modestly unstable, uncapped
atmosphere over the higher terrain during max heating.  Since mid
level lapse rates will be 7-7.5 C/Km, and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
25-35kt, a few storms could be severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

Models appear to be latching on to another shortwave trough as it
approaches the region Monday night, then shears out as it moves
overhead Tuesday.  It`s difficult to say whether convection will
flourish late Monday night/Tuesday morning over western reaches of
the CWA as some models suggest, but will keep a decent chance of
thunderstorms going as there is too much agreement not to.  Despite
being the unfavorable part of the day for strong/severe storms, some
could be just that due to enough instability, shear and steep mid
level lapse rates.  If a few clusters of storms do come together,
heavy rainfall could materialize late Monday night and Tuesday over
portions of the forecast area.

By Wednesday, more widespread rain chances appear to be in the
offing.  Low level easterly, upslope flow will persist, aid in
dropping high temperatures at least 10 degrees below normal, and
drive PWats 1-2 S.D. above normal, as a weak upper trough moves
slowly overhead.  Although shear will be weaker than previous days,
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding could come about due to
high precipitable water in the atmosphere and slow storm motion.
will continue to mention these possibilities in the HWO.  Rain
chances, and near to below normal temperatures, look to last through
Friday as weak upper troughiness remains in the vicinity of the
southern Plains.  Thereafter, models are at odds on whether an upper
ridge builds over the region, or another front ua trough affect the
region. Will cleave to the middle on both Pops and temps for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  85  63  85 /  10   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       58  87  62  83 /  10  20  30  40
Dryden                         67  83  67  83 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  62  84  65  82 /  20  30  20  40
Guadalupe Pass                 58  79  58  75 /  20  20  30  40
Hobbs                          56  85  59  80 /  10  10  20  30
Marfa                          56  80  57  79 /  20  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           61  88  64  83 /  10   0   0  20
Odessa                         61  87  64  83 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                           61  89  64  84 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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