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000
FXUS64 KMAF 131144
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings have been slow to lower this morning. Forecast soundings
still indicate a brief period of MVFR cigs at all terminals before
lifting to VFR. All low clouds should dissipate between 18Z-20Z.
Winds will remain out of the ESE and may become elevated by late
this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the Western US and a
trough over the east.  The axis of this ridge will slide east moving
over the area late Friday into Saturday.  Also on Friday a trough
working its way down the West Coast will develop into a closed low
Friday night as it moves down across CA.  This low will cut off by
Sunday as it moves from CA into NV then down across AZ Monday... NM
on Tuesday... and across the Panhandle Tuesday night.  Brief pause
Wednesday before a weak trough moves across the region Thursday.

As far as temperatures the sun came out yesterday afternoon and
started the warming trend... that will continue today into next
week.  Low clouds are moving back into the area this morning but
these should burn off by midday with temperatures climbing into the
70s.  Will be warmer on Friday and Saturday with highs in the 80s...
increasing to 80s and 90s on Sunday and Monday with near normal
temps mid week.

Not expecting much in the way of rain today but storm chances
increase Friday around the Guadalupes expanding across the Davis
Mtns and Marfa plateau Friday night.  Saturday looking like the best
chance of storms as a shortwave moves through.  Model qpf pointing
to the development of strong storms/locally heavy rain over Pecos
and Terrell Saturday/Saturday night with some moving across the
Permian Basin too.  Sunday looks to be a down day but with the
approaching cut off low storm chances will increase early next
week... could see some dryline storms Monday and Tuesday over the
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  56  84  59 /   0   0  20  30
Dryden                         77  60  82  64 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  75  57  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  79  60 /   0  10  20  50
Hobbs                          72  53  80  58 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          72  47  82  51 /   0  10  10  50
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           78  57  86  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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