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000
FXUS64 KMAF 020438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1038 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southwest winds will continue the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM at 18Z, w/area
radars indicating light precipitation, mainly over the northern
Permian Basin.  P-types reported have included just about everything
but FZRA, and a look at the 12Z KMAF RAOB shows why.  Models have
not done a good job capturing this, but the HRRR/NAM suggest this
will taper off to the NE by mid-afternoon as the trough moves into
the Southern Plains.

Skies should clear out overnight as subsidence sets in on the
backside of the trough, and coupled w/light and variable sfc winds,
will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico wide open to a hard
freeze for most of the area as radiational cooling is optimized.
This should be the coldest night this forecast.

Weak/dirty ridging follows the trough, w/return flow kicking in
overnight, for a quick rebound to above-normal temperatures by
Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday could be our warmest day this
forecast, as afternoon temperatures top out in the mid-70s or higher
most locations, feeling more like early April than early March.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough just off the west coast is poised to
make landfall near SoCal Wednesday night, and pass through the
panhandles Thursday night.  This feature has been trending north
over the past few days, and at present could kick off -SHRA in
northern Lea County Thursday morning, but that`s about it.  A Pac
front will accompany the trough, followed by a secondary cold front,
which will crater temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s Saturday
afternoon.  Zonal flow ensues through the weekend, and temps should
be back to the upper 70s or better most locations by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     28  61  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  62  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  65  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  28  61  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          24  58  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          23  58  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  60  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  59  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  62  33  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10