Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 260431
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1031 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

A very warm, breezy April...I mean February day is in progress
across the region. Most locations are already seeing temperatures
in the 80s as we max out near record highs today. At Midland Intl
we will get pretty close to the current record high of 86 degrees
set in 2009. Mild conditions are expected overnight as winds
remain elevated and clouds begin to increase.

Monday looks downright HOT out there with a high (>90%) chance for
the eastern half of the area to reach 90 degrees. If Midland reaches
90 it would tie our record high for the day. Leeside surface
troughing will lead to increasing westerly winds while mid level
flow also strengthens. Thickening high clouds will limit mixing
somewhat, but still believe some higher wind gusts will make it to
the surface across the mountains and northern Permian Basin. High
winds will begin to mix down across the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains by mid afternoon so will upgrade to a High Wind Warning
with this forecast. While winds may decrease slightly for a few
hours across the mountains Monday evening, they will increase once
again well before sunrise Tuesday. Given the stronger winds,
temperatures look very mild (20 degrees above normal) Monday night
with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Tuesday afternoon sees the main core of the jet associated with a
progressive trough to the north move over the region. Strong westerly
winds develop behind a quick moving Pacific front during this time.
High Winds are expected to continue across the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect with
additional high winds expected to develop across the Davis Mountains
and the adjacent plains where a High Wind Watch is in effect.
Advisory-level winds may also develop across a large portion of the
remaining area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the
Pacific front during the afternoon but due to their downslope
component should still reach well into the 70s and lower 80s for a
large portion of the area. Moving into Wednesday, a cold front
slides south through the region as the main trough continues to
advance into the Great Lakes. This brings cooler weather to much of
the area as temperatures fall below normal in the 50s and lower 60s
for many.

Our next weather maker arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. A
trailing shortwave trough moves over the region and aides in ascent
over the frontal inversion. Widespread showers are forecast to
develop from the Presidio Valley northeast into the Permian Basin
overnight. This precipitation should fall as mainly rain at first
but snow may begin to mix in across the mountains and far northern
Permian Basin as temperatures fall to near or slightly below
freezing across these areas. A dry sub-cloud layer should limit any
accumulations with continued dry, cold air advection. Any snow
accumulation should be limited to only the higher elevations where
temperatures fall below freezing for longer. Elsewhere, limited
below freezing temperatures and very warm ground temperatures should
result in little to no accumulations or impacts.

Temperatures remain below normal in the 50s and 60s Thursday
afternoon behind the departing secondary shortwave trough. These
below average temperatures do not last long as mid-level ridging
quickly returns by Friday. Sunny skies further aide the building
ridge pushing temperatures well into the 70s and back above normal.
Temperatures continue to hold nearly steady in the 70s and lower 80s
as we head into the following weekend.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly surface winds
will increase and become gusty by late morning, then decouple but
remain elevated after sundown. High clouds will gradually increase
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Widespread critical relative humidity and increasing wind speeds
ahead our next trough are resulting in widespread elevated and near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement is in effect for most of the area as a result of
this. Monday afternoon sees winds continue to remain elevated across
portions of the region. The strongest of these winds are expected
across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of west Texas.
These winds combined with continued critical relative humidity are
expected to result in near critical to critical fire weather. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for the aforementioned areas due to this.
More widespread strong winds and near critical relative humidity is
expected Tuesday afternoon as the main core of the jet moves
overhead. Additional fire weather products may be needed for a large
portion of the area in later forecasts.

-Chehak

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  53  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 85  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   92  56  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            88  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    80  47  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  55  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   83  57  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     85  53  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 2 PM CST /1 PM MST/ Monday to 6 AM CST /5
     AM MST/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44


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