National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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FXUS64 KMAF 120500
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1100 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

High clouds will lower Wed mid morning or so as a mid-level trough
approaches. There is some guidance that generates precip INVOF
PEQ/FST/INK. We will indicate lowering clouds to around 10KFT AGL
through the day and omit precip for now. Winds will increase at CNM
toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
High clouds and southerly winds mostly less than 10kts are expected
overnight. METMOS at MAF does show a brief window for low clouds,
but based on soundings any moisture is very shallow and for now
we will not include in forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A cutoff 500 mb upper low over the baja California has induced
southwest flow aloft across West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Current wv imagery shows high clouds streaming over the area which
will keep our overnight lows a bit warmer tonight and keep fog out
of the forecast. Surface winds will increase and become
southwesterly tomorrow as this upper low slides south of the area.
Sustained winds will most likely reach warning criteria in the
Guadalupes where a High Wind Watch is in effect. Temperatures are
expected to warm above normal, but high clouds will prevent strong
mixing and reduce warming a bit.

Things will get a lot more interesting late Wednesday into Thursday.
An impressive high amplitude shortwave trough will drop south out of
the central Rockies and begin to deepen over New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle. As the low center passes north of the region a
sharp pressure gradient will develop over the forecast area. The 700
mb height gradient will approach 90nm/200nm between 15-21Z which
is indicative of sustained winds over 40 mph. A High Wind Watch
will be expanded to include the southeast New Mexico Plains and
Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau for Wednesday night into early
Thursday. The watch may need to be expanded to include parts of
the Permian Basin at a later time. The other factor of this system
will be the potential for precipitation to develop on the back
side of the upper low as it passes. Soundings show saturation of
the column below freezing, but surface surface temperatures look
to remain above freezing. Therefore, snow is possible across the
northern Permian Basin, but accumulations will not amount to much.

The large upper storm system will shift east and upper ridging
will take its place. This will keep the forecast dry with warming
temperatures into early next week. Long-range models diverge
thereafter with respect to the upper pattern so haven`t changed
much in the extended. It does appear that temperatures next week
will remain slightly above normal for mid December.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  42  66  41 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       60  41  67  38 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         58  42  66  43 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  67  47  68  42 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  44  59  33 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          59  37  65  34 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          62  39  63  34 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           60  43  67  41 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         60  42  67  40 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           62  41  70  39 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

44/67/44
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
