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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271134
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
May have some brief improvements in vsbys but kept mention of IFR
conditions in all TAFs. The heavier precipitation has moved off
to the east but getting redevelopment back across SE NM. Light
freezing drizzle/freezing rain expected at all TAF locations today
along with low cigs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

..Major Winter Storm will Impact the Area with Accumulating Ice
and Snow through Tonight.....

No major changes were made to the forecast with the winter storm
on track to significantly impact travel across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas through tonight. The record breaking
cold continues to surge south with only temperatures along the
Rio Grande River currently above freezing. Freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain is ongoing across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas as upper level forcing increases ahead of a
major upper level storm system currently located in southern
Arizona. Radar is indicating that the heaviest activity is
currently in the extreme northeast Permian Basin where an Ice
Storm Warning is in effect through tonight. This activity is
expected to continue today and tonight as the upper system tracks
toward New Mexico. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect as well through tonight.

The precipitation is expected to transition to sleet and moderate
snow across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains this afternoon as cooler air aloft overspreads
those areas. Freezing rain and sleet, heaviest across the northeast
Permian Basin, will continue across west Texas this afternoon with
the pronounced warm layer aloft continuing. The colder air aloft
will continue to spread eastward tonight into west Texas and the
freezing drizzle and freezing rain will also gradually transition
to a mixture of sleet and snow with accumulating snows of 1 to 3
inches expected across portions of the northern and central Permian
Basin by sunrise Wednesday morning. The warm layer aloft is
expected to persist through much of tonight across the extreme
eastern and southern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos with sleet and
freezing rain persisting with snow amounts of less than 1 inch
expected in those locations.

Precipitation will come to an end Wednesday morning with little or
no additional accumulation expected. Conditions will rapidly
improve during the day Wednesday as warm downslope flow develops,
although high temperatures will still remain well below normal.

For the remainder of the week dry conditions are expected behind
this system with temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  30  50  39 /  80  90  20   0
Carlsbad                       31  23  45  30 /  80  70  10   0
Dryden                         39  34  65  43 /  50  60   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  27  55  40 /  60  60   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  21  39  36 /  80  50   0   0
Hobbs                          29  24  43  33 /  80  80  10   0
Marfa                          34  19  55  28 /  40  30   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  27  51  38 /  80  90  10   0
Odessa                         32  27  51  38 /  80  80  10   0
Wink                           35  25  53  35 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Loving-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Andrews-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Martin-
     Midland.

     Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$