Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
436 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018


See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.



Return flow will continue next 24 hours under an upper-lvl ridge
building in from the west. Convective temps too high for cu
development, but a few high clouds will be possible. Thu night, a
40+kt LLJ is forecast, and may advect some LIFR cigs into KMAF and
MVFR/KINK near the end of the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

Today a mid-level ridge axis will be positioned across ern 1/3 of NM
and with M20C 85h temps across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos it will be
especially warm there. High temps yesterday were about 15 degrees
above 85h temps which will easily result in highs from the U80S
across the central PB to the L90s across Eddy Co/Trans Pecos lower
elevations. By Fri sw flow aloft will develop as said ridge axis
moves e and high temps will increase a few degrees across the PB,
even with high clouds, this will probably be the 1st 90 degree temp
reading for Midland/Odessa this yr. Wind will increase on Fri with
stronger wind in sw flow aloft available for mixing and MSLP
gradient tightens as surface low moves e into central KS. Not alot
of change on Sat-Sun just a few degrees cooler, and still breezy at
times across SE NM/PB. As for GDP Mtns there will likely be low end
high winds thru GDP Pass Fri-Sun, no watch for now. A few high based
showers are possible Sun PB across the wrn CWFA, possibly Mon AM,
but upper jet is not in best location? Falling heights/backing mid-
level flow Mon ahead of a cold upper low in the Great Basin does
suggest better PoPs Mon PM. Dryline will extend from Lower Trans
Pecos newd into the n-ne PB and seems reasonable that models would
develop TSRA mostly along and e of dryline. Dryline will retreat
some Mon night so TSRA can`t be ruled across central PB, but much
better chances in far ern CWFA and Lower Trans Pecos. Dryline edges
e on Tue. Still some hints of another chance for rain mid week or

An upper-lvl ridge will continue building into West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico from the west today, resulting in unseasonably
warm temperatures ~ 5-15F abv normal.  Light southerly 20-ft winds
will dominate most of the area, but a westerly component over the
higher terrain this afternoon will sharpen up a weak dryline mid-
CWA, leaving SE NM and adjacent plains of West Texas south w/RH in
the teens. RFTIs of 1-2, high fire danger, and dry fuels suggest a
RFD is in order.

Friday, critical fire wx conditions become a bit more widespread
under SW flow aloft on the backside of the ridge, as the LLTR moves
further east into the region.  Leeside troughing on the front range
will induce increasing SW-W 20-ft winds over all but the far eastern
zones, sharpening up a dryline and leaving critical RH to the west.
Forecast soundings mix from up to 650 mb NW to 725mb E, bringing
critical 20-ft winds to the sfc on the windward side of the LLTR.
Current ERCs are 70-90th percentile over most of the area, and above
90 percentile over the Texas Trans Pecos/Permian Basin/Wrn Low
Rolling Plains.  We see nothing to keep them from climbing higher
between now and Friday.  Models are in pretty good agreement w/all
of this, so we`re going to go ahead and upgrade the watch to a
warning this package.

Beyond Fri, models develop a closed upper trough and park it over
the SW CONUS into next week.  SW flow aloft will offer similar fire
wx patterns Sat/Sun to Friday`s, and possibly beyond, and we`ll
address this on a day-to-day basis.


Big Spring                     86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       92  53  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         86  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  92  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 84  57  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  94  58 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Friday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.



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