Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 262340
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along
an advancing frontal boundary this evening. Confidence is higher
for storms to impact CNM over the next few hours where areal
coverage is higher. Will monitor and amd if thunderstorms
continue to develop INVOF of the remaining terminals. Otherwise,
convection should begin to wane after sunset with increasing E-NE
winds, especially at MAF and INK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Upper ridge centered over TX today will shift west becoming centered
over NV Monday as an upper trough moves across the NE US. By Tuesday
morning the next upper low will arrive on the NW Coast.
A weak cold front pushed down into the area overnight resulting in a
bit cooler temperatures today for the northern half of the area.
This front should continue to sag southward into the southern CWA
tonight. Will have an E to NE wind tonight and Monday. A High Wind
Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Pass tonight.
There is a chance of storms tonight along and behind the front.
Based on current cu field have expanded low pops this afternoon and
evening across Srn Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos... and into
the Big Bend Region. After midnight best chance of rain will be over
SE NM. On Monday highest rain chance will shift south across the
Lower Trans Pecos. With PW over 1 inch some locations could receive
locally heavy rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022
No significant changes to the long term from the previous forecast
package. Northwest flow aloft on Tuesday will keep highs relatively
on the cool side, in the upper 80s to low 90s. The upper ridge will
be over the Four Corners by this point, and models indicate that a
shortwave trough will push down through the area Tuesday afternoon,
providing the best chance for precipitation that we`ve had in
awhile. Forecast soundings show PW values between 1.25-2.00" for
much of the CWA on Tuesday, indicating the potential for some
locally heavy rainfall with these storms. Currently, the greatest
chances for storms on Tuesday look to be across the Davis Mnts and
Marfa Plateau, as well as up into Southeast New Mexico.
The ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward through the later
half of the week, and thickness will be increasing each day due to
this. Models show that an inverted trough will attempt to move into
the area and upslope thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon
through the end of the forecast period. Have gone ahead and put in
POPs mainly across the western half of the CWA each
afternoon/evening due to this. The inverted trough will also help
keep temperatures across the CWA from warming above normal despite
increasing thickness as the ridge shifts east. Models diverge on the
movement of the inverted trough this far out, but temperatures for
the end of the week and through the weekend look to be in the mid-
90s for most.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 64 87 67 90 / 20 20 10 30
Carlsbad 63 85 64 89 / 40 20 30 40
Dryden 74 93 71 93 / 10 30 20 50
Fort Stockton 68 89 67 90 / 20 40 20 50
Guadalupe Pass 56 79 62 81 / 20 20 20 40
Hobbs 59 83 63 86 / 30 20 20 40
Marfa 59 84 57 83 / 10 30 10 60
Midland Intl Airport 66 87 67 89 / 20 20 20 40
Odessa 68 87 69 89 / 20 20 20 40
Wink 67 89 67 90 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Monday for
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...24