Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 080434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

A backdoor cold front is moving across the Mid-South this evening
with little fanfare. Winds have shifted from the northeast in the
wake of this boundary, but it has failed to produce much in the
way of precipitation. More organized mid-level cloud cover is
noted in the post-frontal air closer to the 850-700 mb thermal
gradient and this could result in some light showers later
tonight, though QPF looks to be minimal. Some additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday along and south of the
front, generally southwest of a Jonesboro-Memphis-Tupelo line.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler north of the front with highs in
the low/mid 80s while highs will approach the upper 80s to the
south. Air quality is expected to improve tomorrow across most of
the CWA with the greatest regional smoke concentrations extending
from western IL into Middle TN.



Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

A few showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Midsouth
tonight, along a slow-moving cold front. Following the passage of
this front, low relative humidity will prevail, with cool nights,
warm afternoons and little chance of rain through Friday.

Rain chances will increase Saturday night and Sunday, as a warm
front returns humidity to the Midsouth, in advance of an upper
level disturbance.


(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The stubborn omega block pattern will persist over the U.S. into
the weekend, but change sufficiently to bring increased humidity
and rain chances to the Midsouth Saturday night and Sunday. The
eastern leg of this omega block, a closed lower over the Northeast,
will lift out to the Canadian maritimes by Sunday. This will
expose the Midsouth to more seasonal west/northwest flow aloft,
displacing the fetch of smoke from central Canada.

In the interim, a weak cold front will pass through the Midsouth
tonight. 3 PM surface dewpoints were warmer to our north, in the
lower and mid 60s over southeast MO, western KY and southern IL,
where convection had already formed. This activity will likely
drop into the Midsouth tonight, aided by midlevel height falls
and focused along the weak surface cold front.

With the Northeast upper low lifting out late Saturday, a weaker
upper low move into Great Lakes from eastern Canada. Over the
Midsouth, flow aloft will transition from northerly to west/
northwesterly, placing us downstream from expected thunderstorms
over the central plains. Thunderstorm timing is a bit uncertain at
this point, and will likely be tied to a trough axis rounding the
Great Lakes upper low.

Additional rain chance will arrive the middle of next week, aided
by the return as 70s dewpoints and the approach of a southern
branch upper level trough. Following this system, upper level
heights will build over the gulf coast. For the Midsouth, lower to
mid 90s high temps appear probable, along with typical early
summer daytime convection.



(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

A weak cold front will continue to sag south across the Mid-South
overnight, allowing for winds to become northeast at around
4-5kts. Current observations have wind speeds greater than
originally forecast, so adjusted overnight speeds. As such, the
fog threat at MKL has diminished so took out of TAF.

In addition, shower development is possible by the afternoon hours
at JBR and MEM. CAMs continue to struggle with developing any
thunderstorms for this time period, so kept with VCSH for now.
Otherwise, winds will remain mainly out of the northeast at 6-8kts
through the evening.





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