Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290608
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.Aviation...
Prevailing VFR is anticipated for the eastern terminals, but
areas of low clouds and/or fog are possible, mainly over interior
portions of South Florida early this morning. Chances for these
to impact the TAF sites appears low, but will monitor for possible
changes. Light N winds early this morning before shifting from
the E then SE then SW throughout the day today. Additional clouds
will move into the area late this afternoon with increasing shower
chances during the overnight hours from west to east.

&&

Prev Discussion... /issued 357 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Short term (Tonight-Wednesday night): High pressure over the
Southeastern United States will move quickly into the Atlantic
waters tonight. This will allow for low pressure over Texas to
move east southeast and through Southeastern United States on
Wednesday. An associated cold front with the low will also be
moving east southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. This weather
pattern will allow for the wind flow over South Florida to go from
a northerly flow this afternoon to a south/southwest direction on
Wednesday. However, the atmosphere will remain mostly dry through
Tuesday before low level moisture increases over the region on
Wednesday. Therefore, the weather will remain dry through Tuesday
night before increasing PoPs from west to east on Wednesday.

The low pressure over the Southeastern United States will continue
to move eastward into the Western Atlantic waters Wednesday night
allowing for the cold front over the Gulf of Mexico to move
southeast through South Florida and stall over the Florida Keys or
the Florida Straits. This will end PoPs from west to east across the
region.

A few of the showers Wednesday night could produce some gusty winds
over South Florida especially over the western areas, as a mid to
upper level jet of 35 to 50 knots will be moving northeast from the
Southern Gulf of Mexico across the Lake Okeechobee region and into
the Western Atlantic waters. Therefore, gusty wind wording will be
added in the extended HWO product for the showers for Wednesday
night.

Long Term (Thursday-Monday night):

A few showers are possible through the early morning hours on
Thursday with some possible overrunning from a stationary
decaying front lingering over the Florida Keys. But drier
conditions will prevail for the rest of the day as high pressure
establishes across the area.

Meanwhile, long range model solutions depict a deepening mid level
trough across the eastern CONUS, with a cyclogenesis sfc reflection
over the Gulf waters by late Thursday and into Friday. As the low
intensifies, it will help the aforementioned stalled front in
retrograding back across SoFlo, which will bring weak isentropic
lifting by Friday afternoon. This synoptic scenario will result in
increased shower activity across much of the area for the start
of the weekend.

Models show the still deepening low crossing the extreme SE CONUS
and into South Carolina Friday night into early Saturday. Both the
low and a supporting upper level jet remain well to the north of the
area, along with the best dynamic support for deep convection. But
there should be enough low level instability for justifying keeping
slight chance of storms, especially Friday evening and through the
overnight hours. In terms of rain, model PWATS are gradually
increasing with latest runs from GFS getting close to 2 inches.
So, forecast will keep mentioning the potential for heavy showers
and localized flooding in the Friday night through Saturday time
frame.

The front should be clearing SoFlo by Saturday evening with high
pressure building behind it. The wind will veer to the northwest
by Sunday, with 10 to 15 kts at the surface Sunday morning,
subsiding to below 10 kts late Sunday. There is also some cold air
advection in the wake of the FROPA, with highs remaining in the
upper 60s to low 70s Sunday afternoon. Sunday night into Monday
morning will experience colder temperatures with lows in the mid
40s near the lake to around 60 along the Atlantic beaches. High
pressure will prevail with benign weather in place for early next
week.

Marine...
The winds will swing from a northerly direction this afternoon to a
southerly direction on Wednesday with speeds of 10 knots or less.
The northeast swells will continue to slowly decrease this afternoon
and should be gone by Wednesday over the Atlantic waters. This will
keep the seas at 2 feet or less in the Atlantic and Gulf waters
through Wednesday, except around 3 feet in the Atlantic waters of
Palm Beach County.

Beach Forecast...
The northeast swells from this afternoon will help to keep the
High Risk of Rip Currents ongoing through this evening for the
northern beaches of Palm Beach County. The treat of rip currents
will then decrease late tonight into Wednesday along the beaches
of Palm Beach County, and remain low along rest of the beaches of
South Florida.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  77  61  78  62 /  20  30  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  78  64  78  65 /  20  40  10   0
Miami            79  64  80  66 /  20  40  10   0
Naples           74  61  75  59 /  10  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&



Aviation...03/Fell






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