671
FXUS62 KMFL 131928
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
328 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Greatest threat for flooding on Monday across the east coast
   metros.

 - Widespread 1-2" with scattered locations around 3-5".
   Reasonable worst case scenario would be a specific location or
   two could experience 5-7".

 - Heavy rain threat continues through Wednesday but shifts
   primarily to the interior and west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The primary features responsible for the local weather through
mid-week are a pair of TUTTs moving west through the Gulf and
Atlantic. At the surface, their reflections are/will be a surface
ridge over the eastern Gulf and a developing area of low pressure
across the far western Atlantic and SE US. The steering flow
between these low-level features will generally be out of the NW
through Tuesday.

While low-level flow remains weak today as these features continue
to develop, the main threat will be slow storm motions along a
somewhat pinned seabreeze boundary. So far though, slow-moving
storms have only been able to produce about 1-1.5" before
meandering elsewhere. Generally speaking, the threat for flooding
or severe weather remains low today.

On Monday, all the global ensemble suites indicate PWAT values
climbing into the top 10th percentile of observed climatology for
this time of year. As the low pressure system draws nearer, the
low-level NW/WNW flow will increase as well and result in
increased convergence along the east coast. More deep layer
forcing will be present as well as the full-column synoptic ascent
increases. As far as the evolution of storms is concerned for
Monday, expect convection to spread south through the state where
convergence is enhanced along the increasing wind field. Then
later in the afternoon, convection will focus along the east
coast. Generally speaking, expect 1-2" of rain in areas impacted
by thunderstorms, with scattered amounts of 3-4" certainly a
possibility. Right now, a reasonable worst case to consider on
Monday will be along the east coast metros and could reach 5-7" in
an isolated spot or two.

Ensembles continue to show an anomalously moist background
environment through Wednesday, however, with the surface low
pressure moving into the Gulf and weak troughing in the lower
troposphere, convergent flow will be reduced on Tuesday. In fact,
flow will generally be transitioning to a southerly direction and
may focus convection across the interior and Lake regions both
Tuesday and Wednesday. With limited convective allowing model data
available in the Tues/Wed range, the courser resolution guidance
has similar rainfall amounts to Monday, with roughly 1-2" in
locations impacted by thunderstorms and isolated to scattered
amounts around 3-5". As southerly flow increase on Wednesday, the
more progressive nature of storms may knock an inch or so off
those amounts. The threat for flooding is naturally reduced as the
focus shifts off the metros, but will have to monitor as more
guidance comes in and the threat evolves to assess the flood
potential if similar areas across the interior are impacted over
multiple days.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Thursday will be the transition day to a more typical easterly
flow regime that will persist into the weekend. Some influence
from the passing upper wave may continue to result in pockets of
heavier rain across the west coast on Thursday. Heat will return
to being the main threat by the end of the week and into the
weekend, with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s and heat
indices climbing well into the 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Storms have mostly moved inland, away from the southeast coast
terminals (with the exception of PBI). Tempos will continue for
the next hour or so but otherwise the TAFs remain generally on
track advertising convection winding down late this afternoon and
through the night. Tomorrow`s expected storms fall just past the
18Z cutoff for this TAF issuance. Background WNW winds (away from
storms) will prevail through the first half of tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light winds and low seas will prevail through mid-week. Winds will
then turn solidly southeasterly and may increase to Cautionary
levels as the western edge of high pressure becomes established
across the western Atlantic. Showers and storms will be numerous
through mid-week as well, before returning to more typical
summertime coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  87  75  84 /  70  80  60  80
West Kendall     73  87  72  85 /  60  80  50  80
Opa-Locka        76  89  75  87 /  70  90  50  80
Homestead        75  87  74  85 /  70  80  60  80
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  75  85 /  70  90  50  80
N Ft Lauderdale  75  87  75  85 /  70  90  50  70
Pembroke Pines   78  90  77  88 /  70  80  50  80
West Palm Beach  74  87  74  86 /  70  80  40  70
Boca Raton       74  89  74  87 /  70  90  50  70
Naples           77  89  75  88 /  50  90  60  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan