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000
FXUS62 KMFL 080620
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
120 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A short-wave ridge is projected to follow an eastward path across
the Florida peninsula. The trajectory of this feature will prompt
a low-level mass response, resulting in a veering of winds with a
predominately easterly direction. Consequently, a warming trend
near the surface is anticipated, as a mild maritime air mass
progressively infiltrates over South Florida. The absence of
atmospheric forcing for ascent and the scarcity of available
moisture are expected to curtail precipitation potential, thereby
sustaining predominantly dry conditions across the region. High
temperatures will climb into the upper 70s across many locations
this afternoon.

On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is projected to persist in its
eastward progression, coinciding with the intensification and
amplification of a mid-level trough traversing the Great Plains.
Although the mid-level ridge will maintain proximity sufficient to
predominantly sustain dry conditions across the region on
Saturday, there will be a marginal increase in moisture advection,
which is anticipated to facilitate the possible development of
isolated showers, primarily over the Atlantic waters and along the
east coast. Temperature-wise, Saturdays high temperatures are
expected to vary, with readings in the lower 80s in the east coast
metropolitan areas, while reaching the mid-80s in the interior
regions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

On Sunday, the intensifying mid-level trough is anticipated to
advance further into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico.
Concurrently, a robust surface frontal boundary will progress
through the Southeast, extending into Northern and Central Florida
as the day unfolds. Ahead of this frontal system, regional winds
are expected to shift towards a south-southwesterly direction, and
concurrently, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will
incrementally heighten. However, substantial uncertainty persists
regarding the specifics, as recent ensemble model outputs have
indicated a deceleration in the eastward movement of both the mid-
level trough and the surface frontal boundary. This delay suggests
that the peak probabilities for showers and thunderstorms might
occur later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the
most favorable dynamics and instability are projected to remain
significantly north, there remains a potential for a few intense
thunderstorms, characterized by gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Elevated values of bulk shear and mixed-layer Convective Available
Potential Energy (ML CAPE) will create a conducive environment
for the development of thunderstorms, contingent upon adequate
low-level mass convergence. This aspect of the forecast will
continue to be closely monitored throughout the week. Sundays high
temperatures are expected to reach the lower 80s in east coast
metropolitan areas and the mid-80s in the interior regions of
Southwest Florida.

With model guidance indicating a slower movement of the frontal
boundary, its passage over South Florida is now forecast for the
overnight and early morning hours of Monday, possibly stalling
over the Florida Straits thereafter. Cold air advection across
South Florida is expected to be modest, as winds rapidly shift to
a more north-northeasterly direction from Monday into Tuesday,
with high pressure building from the north. Forecast uncertainty
for the early to middle part of next week remains heightened due
to discrepancies in model guidance regarding the strength of the
incoming high pressure. A more robust high-pressure system could
extend further south, potentially ushering in drier air during
this period. Conversely, a weaker high-pressure system might allow
the stalled frontal boundary to remain closer to the region,
maintaining higher moisture levels and continued chances of
showers. The latest forecast adopts a model blend, incrementally
increasing shower probabilities on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mondays
high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s west of
Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s along the east coast. With the
development of northeasterly winds, a gradual warming trend is
anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SCT to BKN ceilings of 4-6k ft through the day. Easterly winds
5-10 kts this morning increasing to 10-15 kts this afternoon. Few
passing showers are possible across the east coast metro later
today but chances are too low to mention at any particular
terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Marine conditions today have improved, with the earlier hazardous
conditions no longer present. Wave heights over the Atlantic
waters are now more moderate, generally ranging between 3 to 5
feet. Winds are expected to continue evolving, shifting out of the
east today and veering out of the southeast as the weekend
approaches. The possibility of thunderstorms later in the weekend
should be noted, especially in the context of an advancing cold
front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least
Saturday for the Atlantic coast. This elevated threat may persist
into Sunday before improving conditions early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  10
West Kendall     79  67  82  69 /  10  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        79  70  82  71 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        79  70  82  71 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  78  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  78  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   79  68  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  77  68  80  70 /  20  20  20  10
Boca Raton       79  70  81  72 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           78  65  83  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CMF