Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 250120
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
920 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.AVIATION...
High pressure is forecast to maintain quiet weather, but breezy
conditions through the TAF period. While some BKN cigs are
possible, cigs should remain above 030 through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 829 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019/

UPDATE...

No changes needed to the prior forecast. High pressure will keep
our weather quiet. Those with beach or ocean plans through this
weekend should exercise caution given gusty onshore winds and a
high risk for rip currents.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday...

A stout mid-level anticyclone remains centered over the Southeast
CONUS, with surface ridging extending from the northern Gulf of
Mexico into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, low-level troughing and
deep layer moisture will remain well to our south over the Caribbean
Sea. This pattern will keep us in a dry and subsident regime, with
periodic pushes of shallow low-level moisture bringing occasional
scattered to broken cloud cover at times. With easterly 1000-850 mb
winds sustained around 20 kt, and good mixing into the surface
layer, look for winds to remain elevated tonight (especially near
the Atlantic coast), with afternoon gustiness returning on
Saturday. With regards to temperatures, expect readings on the
warm side, with lows largely in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs
tomorrow will again be warmest for the western interior and Gulf
coast regions, while the easterly Atlantic flow will provide some
moderation to temperatures for the east coast. Went slightly
above guidance for western areas, bringing highs into the lower
90s, while capped eastern areas in the mid 80s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

The expansive mid-upper ridge will weaken slightly while dipping
equatorward over the Gulf of Mexico into Florida. This will allow
surface ridging to remain from the western Atlantic into our area,
keeping quiet and warm conditions in place. Once again, the greatest
likelihood for above normal temperatures will be across the
western interior and Gulf coast regions as easterly flow remains.

Thursday through Saturday...

The upper ridge will retrograde towards the western Gulf of Mexico
while Atlantic surface ridging shifts farther to our east. This will
place us more on the southwest periphery of the low-level ridge
allowing the flow to turn more southeasterly. This will bring in
more low-level moisture along with shower chances. Temperatures
should remain on the warm side.

MARINE...

Easterly winds of 15-20 knots will continue for the Atlantic
waters over the holiday weekend. Gusts may at time reach 25 knots
at times, and Small Craft operators should exercise caution.
Atlantic seas will average 3-5 ft (possibly higher at times in the
Gulf Stream), while gulf seas in the 2-4 ft range are expected.
Little to no rain chances are expected through the middle of next
week.


BEACH FORECAST...

A high risk for rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches
through at least Memorial Day. An elevated rip current risk will
continue beyond Monday as well given the strong onshore wind
component.

FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy east winds will prevail through Monday, bringing good to
excellent dispersion each day. No rain is expected. Minimum relative
humidity values may near critical values over the western interior
each afternoon, but 20 ft winds should remain below 15 mph over these
same areas. Fire weather headlines are not currently anticipated
over South Florida, due to this wind threshold not being reached,
however caution is advised due to the low relative humidity values
and breezy winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  86  75  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  86  77  86 /   0  10  10   0
Miami            75  87  76  87 /   0  10  10   0
Naples           70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...34/SPM
DISCUSSION...34/SPM
MARINE...34/SPM
AVIATION...13
BEACH FORECAST...34/SPM



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