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000
FXUS62 KMFL 060706
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Short term (Today through Thursday):

Unsettled weather pattern continues today as a tropical wave
moves away from the area into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable
water values will be just over 2 inches with a mid-level short
wave moving through the area helping increase overall coverage of
showers and storms mainly during the late morning and afternoon.
Convection will still be diurnally driven with the sea breeze
being the main focus for convection. Given the persistent easterly
flow regime convection will progress from the east coast in the
morning and early afternoon shifting towards the interior and west
coast in the afternoon and evening. Main concern will continue to
be heavy rainfall with efficient rainfall rates that may produce
localized flooding. Some rather impressive QPF amounts are being
depicted by some of the CAM ensembles over the west/western
Interior so the hydro threat remains and WPC has a Marginal risk
for excessive rainfall to cover this threat. Highs today will
range from the upper 80s near the coasts to the low 90s across the
interior regions.

On Thursday, PWATs will come down a bit to near 1.8 inches and
we will see POPs return closer to climo with another focus
within the interior and western areas of South Florida in the
afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms should be less
numerous than on Wednesday with thermodynamic parameters looking
lackluster for vigorous storms to develop. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100 degrees.

Long term (Thursday Night through Tuesday):

The synoptic regime at the start of the extended period will be
characterized by ridging over the SE US, with the Bermuda High
set up near or just east of its climatological mean position. The
pattern will gradually shift by the upcoming weekend as the ridge
retrogrades to over the SW US, and troughing develops in its wake
over the eastern US. As the ridge retreats, a cold front will sag
down the SE US, although it remains to be seen if this feature
will make it far enough south to have any notable influence on our
sensible weather. At the very least, it may veer the synoptic
flow more southerly-southeasterly, instead of the easterly flow
that we have been seeing potentially bringing some higher daytime
highs for the weekend.

Overall, expect a fairly normal summertime South Florida
Pattern through the long term period, with the convective focus
mostly being along sea breezes, and precipitation chances only
varying slightly from climo each day due to weak perturbations
in mid-lvl moisture. If the aforementioned cold front can make
it far enough south to support increased low-lvl Theta-E advection
and possibly (but unlikely) low-lvl convergence, precipitation
chances could be enhanced early next week, but at this point we
do not have particularly high confidence in this occurring. As
mentioned in the previous discussions, the extended will feature
continued warm and humid conditions with max heat indices approaching
and or exceeding 100 degrees most afternoons with limited overnight
recovery as overnight lows struggle to dip below 80.

&&

.MARINE...

East to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters throughout most of the week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day over
the local South Florida waters. Winds and waves may be locally
higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...

An elevated risk of rip currents will remain through the week
along the east coast beaches as east to southeasterly flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR should prevail through around 14Z, but an isolated quick
passing shower is still possible over MIA and TMB during the early
morning hours. SE flow around 10kt will return after 16Z, except
for westerly flow over APF with developing Gulf breezes. Periods
of MVFR/IFR are possible after 16Z with any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  79  90  79 /  70  20  30  20
West Kendall     90  77  91  77 /  70  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  91  78 /  70  20  30  10
Homestead        89  78  89  78 /  60  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  70  20  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  70  20  30  10
Pembroke Pines   90  79  90  78 /  70  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  89  79  90  78 /  70  20  30  10
Boca Raton       91  79  91  79 /  70  20  30  10
Naples           90  77  91  76 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Discussion/Marine/Beaches...Rizzuto
Aviation...17

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