Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241334
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
934 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Again, not much in the way of changes. PoPs did pull back, away
from the coast tonight, so slight chance creeps into the Atlantic
coastal areas around dawn tomorrow morning, rather than overnight
tonight. Otherwise, only a few minors tweaks to the forecast with
the latest Hi-Res model data and to account for current
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019/

AVIATION...
High pressure over the region is forecast to maintain the quiet
weather, with an easterly flow. Some clouds are possible today,
with a sct045 forecast. The high cloud deck should begin departing
the area later this morning. By tomorrow, some isolated -SHRA may
return to the Atlantic waters, and possible move onshore along the
east coast metro area.

UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast. Only some minor tweaks to
account for current conditions and adjusted a little to include
most current hi-res model data.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019/

.High risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches today...
.Rough seas in the Atlantic mid to late week could cause coastal
impacts...

DISCUSSION...
Clockwise flow around a surface area of high pressure over the
eastern third of the nation will keep a persistent easterly wind
over the region to conclude the weekend and kick off the work
week. The flow off the Atlantic will help moderate the airmass
allowing for moistening and a slight warming trend to take hold.
Eventually some shower chances return to the forecast for the
Atlantic waters and east coast. The next synoptic feature to
influence our area`s sensible weather will be a frontal boundary
associated with a mid-level trough that will amplify southward
over the southeastern United States on Monday and push eastward
across the Gulf into the peninsula of Florida late Monday into
Tuesday.

While the rain chances for South Florida with this frontal
passage are not as high as what we saw last week, the unsettled
mid-level pattern will meander around the region through mid-
week when a reinforcing mid-level trough/cutoff low will push
across northern Florida into the Atlantic on Wednesday. While
much of the guidance agrees that most of the area will not likely
see high chances of rainfall from this system`s passage, there is
some potential for rain with a focus of the moist, warmer Atlantic
waters. The major impact of this system will lie with the winds
that arrive behind it which will cause the Atlantic to quickly
build. Temperatures will remain fairly close to seasonal averages
for this time of year. Thunderstorm potential with the frontal
passage is non-zero but remains low and will not be mentioned in
the forecast. The best available instability appears to be over
the warmer Gulfstream waters of the Atlantic.

As the system departs late in the week, high pressure once again
builds in over the Atlantic seaboard and the wind will return with
an easterly component. Somewhat zonal flow aloft will help keep
the pattern settled with just some shallow surface-based moisture
from the Atlantic creating the possibility of showers over the
Atlantic waters and east coast to close out the work week and kick
off the next weekend. As the extended forecast period ends, the
next cold front will emerge over the eastern portions of the
country.

MARINE...
Easterly surges of wind will produce cautionary conditions over
the waters with a chance of brief bouts of advisory conditions in
the Gulfstream to conclude the weekend. The next period of
hazardous seas will arrive by Thursday behind a mid-week front
with seas in the Atlantic reaching 9 to 14 feet by late week.

BEACH FORECAST...
An elevated risk of rip currents will likely persist through a good
portion of the week due to the persistent easterly flow to kick
off the week and a reinforcing mid- week frontal passage which will
lead to building seas. Not only is a high risk of rip currents
possible mid to late week but also the potential for beach
erosion and some coastal impacts is within the realm of
possibility. Interests tied to coastal flooding should monitor
the forecast evolution through the week in case the threat to the
coast materializes and a High Surf Advisory and/or Coastal Flood
Statement become necessary for the Atlantic.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  66  80  65 /   0  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  69  80  68 /   0  10  30  30
Miami            80  68  81  67 /   0  10  40  30
Naples           82  63  81  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...13
BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG


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