896
FXUS62 KMFL 081154
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 752 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

    - Above average temperatures continue today and will continue
      through the weekend. Probabilities of heat-related impacts
      across urban areas during this time frame remain high.
      Residents and visitors with outdoor plans should take
      precautions to avoid heat-related illness.

- The next chance for rain arrives early next week as a frontal
      boundary approaches the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Upper level high pressure dominates the pattern through the short
term period leading to sunny and mainly dry conditions today and
Saturday. Sea breezes should dominate the local surface wind flow
with east-southeast winds prevailing across the east coast each
afternoon and west-southwest winds across Southwest Florida. PWATs
will remain around 1 inch or less today, so really not expecting
much in the way of convective development. A slight increase in
moisture on Saturday may allow for a couple low-topped showers over
interior locations as sea breezes progress inland, however the vast
majority of the day should remain completely dry.

The main story is the unseasonable heat, as highs will reach the
upper 80s to perhaps even low 90s along the coast, and low to mid
90s for interior locations today and tomorrow. Maximum heat index
values will approach the upper 90s today, but should break the lower
100s on Saturday as the warming trend continues. As a result, NWS
HeatRisk is moderate across all of South Florida today, and
increases to Major across Southeast Florida on Saturday. Taking a
look at the experimental Probabilistic HeatRisk, there is even a
slight chance (around 15%) that some parts of metro SE Florida
will reach Extreme HeatRisk. Tonight and Saturday night,
overnight lows will struggle to dip much lower than the upper 70s,
and may not even dip below 80 overnight - especially for areas
closest to the water. While these temperatures are not uncommon
for South Florida in general, they are quite unusual this early in
the year, and with little to no relief from the heat and humidity
overnight. With the upper level ridge nearly directly overhead,
winds overnight will be nearly non- existent leading to stagnant,
soupy and uncomfortable conditions overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

As high pressure slides eastward and the next frontal boundary
approaches from the north, slightly higher rain chances for Sunday,
especially across northern parts of the forecast area where modeled
PWATs may even approach 2 inches as moisture increases through the
day. The excessive heat risk peaks on Sunday as the front approaches
and light southerly flow prevails. Highs will peak in the upper 80s
to low 90s along the coast and mid-upper 90s for interior locations.
NWS HeatRisk increases to major across the SW FL metro areas in
Naples and expands across all of metro SE Florida with pockets of
Extreme across the western suburbs. Major and Extreme HeatRisk can
be impactful to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration and it`s
imperative that anyone with outdoor plans this weekend has a plan to
stay hydrated and find relief from the sunshine. Early season
heatwaves like this can catch many off guard, as hydration habits
may not be as aggressive as during the summer months. Very little
relief is expected heading into early next week on Monday and
Tuesday with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat
index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows will
struggle to dip below 80 degrees during this time period, especially
for coastal areas. This will provide little to no relief from the
heat during the nighttime periods.

Heat impacts aside, rain chances will begin to significantly
increase on Monday and Tuesday and a front passes through the
region. A surface low will deepen and accelerate towards the
northeast which will send its attendant frontal boundary through the
area. This will lead to southerly flow across the area on Monday,
and once the boundary passes through the area overnight on Monday,
northeast flow should prevail on Tuesday which hypothetically could
provide a little relief from the heat. Rain chances remain around 30-
50% early next week and will begin to decrease by mid-week as the
front begins to wash out. Enhanced cloud cover associated with the
front should help keep the heat down a touch, although with this
boundary weakening as it approaches the area, periods of sun should
still be possible throughout the day Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Brief periods of sub-vfr conditions remain possible at KTMB early
thing morning as fog overspreads the interior. However, conditions
should begin to improve mid-morning onwards. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail with southeasterly winds across the East Coast and a Gulf
breeze developing and impinging on KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally benign marine conditions expected today with surface
winds veering more southerly across Atlantic waters. Wind
direction will be quite light and variable across Gulf waters
today. Wave heights remain 1-3 feet over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  78  92  79 /   0   0  10   0
West Kendall     95  74  94  76 /   0   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        93  77  93  78 /   0   0  10   0
Homestead        91  77  91  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  90  80 /   0   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   95  78  95  80 /   0   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  90  77  92  79 /   0   0  10  10
Boca Raton       89  78  90  80 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           91  75  92  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for FLZ063-066-
     070.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV