997
FXUS62 KMFL 132307
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

South Florida will continue to experience hot and humid conditions
today, influenced by mid-level ridging extending over the region
from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and a stationary frontal
boundary positioned over north-central Florida. Atmospheric moisture
remains abundant, with precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging
between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. At the surface, winds will be weak and
primarily driven by sea breeze boundaries, while mid-level winds
will prevail from the west. This synoptic setup is conducive to the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along
sea breeze boundaries, with coverage generally peaking between 1-5
pm and tapering off by evening. The highest probabilities for
convective activity are expected over interior regions and the East
Coast metropolitan areas, with gusty winds and heavy downpours being
the primary threats. Localized flooding remains a threat to monitor
and an isolated flash flooding instance cannot be ruled out as well.

Tomorrow, the weather pattern will evolve as a mid-level trough
associated with the remnants of Hurricane Francine progresses from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southeastern United States. A
shortwave trough embedded on the southern periphery of the main
trough will traverse the Florida Peninsula throughout the day,
displacing the existing ridge over the area. Despite the continued
presence of abundant moisture with PWAT values maintaining between
2.0 and 2.2 inches, the enhanced atmospheric lift provided by the
shortwave will result in increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms compared to Friday. The best dynamics for atmospheric
lift remain north of the region closer to the panhandle and central
Florida, although a few stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out,
particularly in the presence of enhanced wind shear and convective
instability. Convection is expected to initiate along sea breeze
boundaries, with interior regions and the East Coast metropolitan
areas again seeing the highest chances for precipitation.

Heat will remain a significant concern both today and Saturday. High
temperatures are forecasted to reach the low to mid-90s Fahrenheit,
with peak heat indices ranging from 107 to 112 degrees across South
Florida. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area from 10:00
AM to 6:00 PM today, with the potential for additional advisories
through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will provide the only
respite from the oppressive heat, as the prevailing light winds will
contribute to the persistence of hot and humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

To end the weekend, mid-level troughing will continue to slide over the
Southeast US and then remain in place for much of the upcoming
week. A drier than normal airmass will dive down the backside of
the trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico and then spread across
the Florida Peninsula with W-SW mid-level flow. PWAT values will
drop from 2.0-2.2 inches on Sunday, to 1.7-2.0 inches or lower for
the early to middle portions of the week. This will bring rain
chances down, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
(30-50% PoPs) each afternoon, developing along sea breeze
boundaries and generally favoring the interior and East Coast
metro areas due to very light southwesterly to westerly flow at
the surface. With the upper level low across the southeast USA,
500mb temperatures will cool significantly potentially reaching -7
to -9 C through the middle of the week. This could support a few
isolated severe thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as lapse
rates steepen.

Temperatures will still be on the warmer side on Sunday as the
airmass gradually cools, with highs in the low 90s and heat
indices in the 104-108 range. For the early to middle portions of
next week, high temperatures will cool into the upper 80s to
around 90, with heat indices generally around 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail overnight through the
morning hours. Showers will become isolated as the night
progresses with light and variable winds overnight. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will return tomorrow afternoon with brief
flight restrictions possible due to poor cig/vis at the
terminals. Winds will become easterly at the east coast sites and
westerly at KAPF with the afternoon sea breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Light southerly winds will prevail across the Atlantic waters
through weekend, with winds over the Gulf waters out of the south-
southwest today and west-northwest over the weekend. Seas across
both the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally be at 2 feet or
less through Saturday, with seas in the Atlantic waters potentially
increasing Sunday into early next week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day and could lead to locally
higher winds and seas, but otherwise, boating conditions will be
good across the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Lingering northerly swell will result in a moderate risk of rip
currents along Palm Beach County beaches today, but will decrease on
Saturday. From Sunday into early portions of next week, we`ll need
to monitor the potential for minor coastal flooding during high tide
cycles as we move into "king tide" season.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  76  91 /  30  80  40  60
West Kendall     76  93  76  92 /  30  80  30  70
Opa-Locka        78  94  76  92 /  30  80  40  60
Homestead        78  92  77  91 /  30  70  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  92  77  89 /  40  70  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  78  91 /  40  80  40  60
Pembroke Pines   79  94  78  93 /  30  80  40  60
West Palm Beach  78  93  77  91 /  50  80  40  60
Boca Raton       79  94  77  92 /  40  70  40  60
Naples           80  91  78  91 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...JS