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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290713
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

.Short Term...
Today-Sunday night...

Latest sfc and model analyses data depict a broad, deep high
pressure system anchored over the eastern Gulf and the Florida
peninsula, with a mid level ridge extending across much of the SE
CONUS. Meanwhile, a low is developing near the TN valley, with an
associated sfc frontal boundary across central GA and the
Carolinas. This synoptic setup will keep SoFlo under persisting
northerly flow, and reinforcing cold/dry air advection. The result
will be continuing benign weather conditions with no rain
expected, generally clear to partly cloudy skies, and temperatures
remaining well below seasonal normals.

Afternoon highs will just warm up a couple of degrees compared to
yesterday, but most areas will remain in the upper 60s, with coastal
locations having the best chance of hitting 70. Nighttime lows will
again drop into the upper 30s-low 40s interior and northern areas,
with the rest of SoFlo in the mid-upper 40s, maybe around 50 near
the coast.

For Sunday, model solutions take the aforementioned ridge and begin
sliding it eastward and into the west Atlantic, allowing for winds
to gradually veer to a more easterly regime across SoFlo. This will
begin modifying the air mass over the area with a gradual warming
trend establishing. Afternoon highs on Sunday should climb up back
into the low-mid 70s over the eastern half of SoFlo, and upper 70s
near the west coast.

Despite the veering of the winds and having a warmer, little more
moist air mass, model soundings still depict very dry conditions
continuing on Sunday with PWATS below 1 inch and dominating
subsidence in place.

All in all, very nice weather continues across SoFlo for the rest of
the weekend. Enjoy!


.Long Term...
Monday through Friday night...

The extended forecast call for mostly dry conditions under high
pressure. Models are showing a continued warming trend through the
middle of the week, with highs back into the mid to upper 80s
across South Florida by Wednesday.

Through the day on Wednesday, models are showing the ridge of high
pressure at the surface begins to quickly break down ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12z Wednesday, a 500mb trough should
be exiting the Texas Gulf Coast. This is actually a secondary
trough, which is associated with a stronger trough much further
north, over the Great Lakes region. There is a surface low with
the main trough, with a cold front extended down the Appalacians
Wednesday morning. With the secondary 500mb trough, another
surface low should develop along the cold front on Wednesday.

This secondary surface low should remain weak, but provide enough
circulation around it to push the cold front through South Florida
by mid day Thursday. This front, while currently only looking like
showers for the South Florida area for Thursday and Friday,
should bring a slight cool down for the area, as well as a
somewhat drier air mass. Low temperatures behind this front are
forecast to be mainly from around 50 in the western Lake region to
around 60 for the Atlantic metro area.

&&

.Marine...
Periods of gusty NW/NNW winds will create hazardous boating
conditons for small craft today, mainly over the Atlantic and
offshore Gulf waters, for which an Advisory has been issued. Seas
will be 3 to 6 feet over the Atlantic waters and 3 to 5 feet in
the Gulf, with occasional higher sets. Conditions should begin
improving later this evening as pressure gradients across the
region begin to relax as the high pressure across the SE CONUS
gradually migrates eastward.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR continues during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds
remain mainly NNW around 10-12kt today, decreasing to around 5kt
tonight.

&&

.Beach Forecast...
A moderate risk of rip currents continue for the Gulf and Palm
beach county beaches through Sunday. Beyond the weekend, the rip
current risk will decrease for the Gulf and increase early next
week for the entire east coast as flow turns more out of the east.

&&

.Fire Weather... Relative humidity values are likely to drop below
critical thresholds again this afternoon, with multiple hours below
35 percent possible across all of South Florida. This will lead to
enhanced fire weather conditions. However, wind critical thresholds
are not expected to be met.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  68  48  72  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  69  50  72  63 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            70  49  72  62 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           69  45  75  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ676.

&&


Marine...17/AR
Aviation...17/AR
Beach Forecast...17/AR
Short Term...17/AR
Long Term...13