Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 232329
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
729 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.AVIATION...
The weather should remain quite tonight across the taf sites,
before a chance of showers return to the east and west coast metro
areas on Monday. The east coast could see a thunderstorm or two
between 15Z and 18Z Monday and between 18Z and 23Z Monday for
KAPF taf site, but the coverage will be few and far between to put
in the taf sites now. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions through tonight at all of the taf sites.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An active pattern for the next few days, before high pressure
aloft builds over the region.

A weak, unorganized low, well east of Miami, is forecast to track
west northwest over the next couple of days. NHC only give this
area a 20 percent chance of organizing over the next 2 days.
Either way, the track would take it well north of the CWA, and may
actually bring somewhat drier air and subsidence for late Monday
into Tuesday. However, there is still a chance for showers and
thunderstorms those days, especially for the interior and Gulf
coast, as easterly flow should continue. This would mainly bring
lower chances for the Atlantic coast for the two days. Both the
ECMWF and the GFS show 500mb temperatures between -6C and -6.5C
for Monday afternoon, and slightly warmer at -5.5C to -6c on
Tuesday afternoon. This would support some general thunderstorm
activity those two days.

By Wednesday, the low is moving north northeast, from the North
Carolina coast, and a 500mb high begins to migrate westward over
the area. At the surface, the pressure does slowly increase, but
the center of the high remains well to the northeast of the area,
over the northwestern Atlantic for the second half of the week.
looking at PWATs, there are waves of dry air and waves of moisture
that migrate over the CWA. The are the GFS shows to persistently
see higher PWATs, around 2 inches, in the afternoons is the
western Lakes region, mainly over Glades and Hendry counties. This
would give that area the best chance of convective activity each
afternoon. However, There is still a low end chance of other areas
seeing convection as well.

Temperatures look to be persistent each day, with highs running
in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Lows are forecast to be in
the 70s each day.

MARINE...
A weak low will pass to the northeast of the area over the next
couple of days, with high pressure building in behind it. The wind
is forecast to remain generally out of the east through the week,
with wave heights running 2to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters for
most of the week. the higher wave heights should remain in the
waters east of Palm Beach County. For the Gulf water, wave heights
of up to 2 feet are forecast through the week.

The swell coming into the Palm Beach coast is forecast to wane
over the next day, and subside to around 1 foot by Monday night.
This should help to allow the rip current risk to subside for
northern Palm Beach county as well.

AVIATION...
Few showers may impact KPBI early this afternoon, then KTMB
mid/late afternoon, where Atlantic breeze is still located in the
vicinity. Otherwise, east coast should remain generally dry
through around sunrise. For Naples, Gulf breeze should move in
before 20z, with scattered thunderstorms expected along it and in
the vicinity through early evening. Monday morning may see slight
moisture surge on the east coast, bringing risk for a few more
showers.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  89  77  89 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  79  89 /  20  30  30  20
Miami            78  89  78  89 /  20  30  20  20
Naples           75  92  76  91 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB







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