Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 190045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
845 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Light and variable winds will persist through the night for a
majority of the TAF sites. Patchy fog may develop over the Gulf
coast and interior, mainly affecting KAPF. Vis could drop down to
3sm or less at times during the early morning hours. Aft
09/1400Z, southwest winds will begin to increase at all the TAF
sites around 10 KT, then increase to near 12 KT by early
afternoon. Besides few/sct clouds with bases around 3000 FT msl,
skies will remain mostly sunny with VFR conds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Quiet night weather-wise with periods of fog possible later
tonight over northern-interior and west coast areas. Other than
minor adjustments to short-term temps and winds, no significant
changes are required for the evening update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Short term (tonight-Tuesday)...broad sfc high pressure remains
across the state tonight, keeping generally light winds. Low
level moisture will continue to gradually filter into South
Florida, which will result in a little warmer temperatures and
better chances of experiencing widespread fog overnight.

Model solutions are in fair agreement about an advancing low
pressure system migrating across the Tennessee Valley tomorrow and
into Tuesday, dragging an associated frontal boundary into the
northern half of the Florida peninsula. However, the sfc ridge
seems to hold its ground and keep the front just north of the Lake
area, at least through late Tuesday. Meanwhile, models also show
a low level jet arriving aloft at the same time the pre-frontal
convection finally pushes into South Florida. This synoptic
scenario could result in increasing thunderstorm activity, for
which the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Central
Florida and the Lake region under marginal risk for severe
weather Tuesday, but favoring more Tuesday night. The situation
will continue to be closely monitored over the next couple of days
as the event draws closer.

Long term (Tuesday night-Saturday)...overall model timing show
the front moving out of the area by Wednesday late in morning with
cooler and drier air advection in its wake. Thus, expect a return
to dry and cool conditions with morning temps dropping into the
mid-upper 40s to low-mid 50s Thursday and Friday.

For next weekend, high pressure builds over the area and provides
a strong blocking pattern, which will effectively keep any frontal
systems from reaching South Florida. Thus, the dry weather prevails
through the rest of the long term.

Generally light wind prevail tonight as surface high pressure
prevails across the coastal waters. Winds will begin increasing
and veering southwest on Monday as a cold front moves into the
northern half of the peninsula. Strong and gusty SW winds are
possible Tuesday, then even stronger winds may develop Tuesday
night in the wake of the front. Periods of elevated seas are also
possible behind the front. Some thunderstorms may accompany the
front Tuesday night and Wednesday.


West Palm Beach  65  84  70  86 /  10  10   0  30
Fort Lauderdale  68  83  71  85 /  20  20   0  20
Miami            67  84  71  86 /  20  20   0  20
Naples           66  82  70  82 /  10  10  20  40



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