302
FXUS62 KMFL 171156
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
756 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

An abrupt transition between air masses this morning behind the
front as wind gusts pick up and dewpoints/temperatures nosedive.
Will monitor trends and update the hourly grids as needed through
the morning. With the initial boundary clearing through, rain
chances should fall pretty quickly in the next couple of hours
with a drying trend leading to relative humidities that will fall
into the 20 to 30 percent range over portions of the peninsula
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Quite the muggy and humid start to Monday as surface dewpoints
remain in the low 70s with light southerly flow ongoing. A frontal
boundary continues on slow approach to South Florida, continuing to
drag moist and unstable air into the lower boundary layer. A 300mb
jet-streak propagating across the region out ahead of a mid-level
trough across the southeastern United States is providing localized
ascent along the surface boundary which has resulted in a broken
line of showers and storms. At the time of writing the discussion
(2:30 am), while a line of storms has indeed materialized with
robust lightning, the heavily sheared environment has resulted in
the prevention of a core sustaining itself long enough to produce
severe weather. While shear can work in favor of severe weather,
too much shear can stifle an updraft and limit the vertical height
of a core. A brief duration of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
lightning is possible if a thunderstorm directly moves overhead.

As winds veer to a northerly direction and enhance behind the
frontal passage this morning, extremely dry air will filter into the
region resulting in forecasted dewpoint values in the 30s and 40s.
When taking a look at Storm Prediction Center`s Sounding Climatology
database for the date, forecasted dewpoint values for South Florida
will be near daily minimum values and well below the 10th
percentile. Breezy northwesterly flow will usher in continued cool
air advection and suppress much in the form of cloud cover. Forecast
high temperatures will range from the lower 70s across northern
locales to temperatures in the upper 70s close to 80 across the
southern extent of South Florida. The main concern for our land
areas today after the departure of the cold front and any associated
convection will be dangerous fire conditions. For a specific
discussion on the threat, please see the dedicated fire weather
section of this discussion.

As surface ridging gradually slides eastward across the southeastern
United States, winds will begin to lessen and veer to a northerly
direction tonight. Clear skies and lessening winds will set the
stage for a cold night (by mid March standards) across South Florida
with forecasted low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across
inland southwestern Florida, upper 40s to near 50 along the gulf
coast and east coast suburbs, and temperatures in the low to mid 50s
along the immediate east coast. A few locales in southwestern
Florida could drop into the low 40s if winds decouple with apparent
temperatures in the low 40s forecast for the rest of southwestern
Florida. As surface ridging continues it`s pivot eastward across the
southeastern United States on Tuesday, winds will veer from a
northerly direction to northeasterly direction after daybreak. This
subtle wind shift will keep high temperatures cooler along the
immediate east coast while created a gradient from northeast to
southwest across the area. The warmest forecast high temperatures
will be across southern Collier and Mainland Monroe counties with
highs in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be in place through
mid week, which will lead to fairly quiet weather across South
Florida. Afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be near
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but the overnight lows will
be chilly for mid to late March with lows ranging from the upper
40s around the lake, to near 60 across the east coast metro.

The next front will cross South Florida late in the week, likely
in the Thursday night through Friday morning time frame. While
this will be mainly a dry front with limited if any shower
development, it will reinforce the cooler and drier air for the
start of the weekend with high temperatures remaining near normal
and overnight lows slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

A blustery NW wind will build today behind the front with
conditions improving to VFR as cloud cover decreases. Wind should
lighten a tad overnight and eventually begin to turn east of north
on Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Breezy southerly winds early this morning will quickly veer to a
northwesterly direction and remain elevated today behind the passage
of a frontal boundary. This will lead to hazardous winds and seas
for the local Atlantic and Gulf waters. These hazardous marine
conditions will return and linger into at least early Tuesday for
the Gulf waters, and into mid-week for the Atlantic waters. An
additional period of hazardous winds and seas is possible late next
week with the passage of another cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Gulf beaches
through Tuesday morning. The risk of rip currents along the east
coast of South Florida will increase on Tuesday as winds veer back
to an onshore direction and northerly swell picks up. This increased
risk along the east coast will likely persist through the mid-week
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

As dry air filters in behind the frontal boundary, relative humidity
values in the mid 20s to low 30s will be realized across the region
this afternoon. Northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25
mph will remain elevated during the afternoon hours. With ongoing
drought conditons across most of the region, a Red Flag Warning will
go into effect for the majority of South Florida (with the exception
of coastal Collier County) from 12pm to 8pm today. Any fires that
develop today could spread rapidly, outdoor burning is not
recommended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  55  77  60 /  20   0   0   0
West Kendall     80  50  79  56 /  20   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        80  53  78  59 /  20   0   0   0
Homestead        80  52  77  59 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  54  75  60 /  20   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  76  54  76  60 /  20   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   81  55  80  60 /  20   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  75  53  75  58 /  20   0   0   0
Boca Raton       76  53  76  59 /  20   0   0   0
Naples           72  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ068-071>075-168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ069.

AM...     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG