Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 131757 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1257 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The winds will remain southeast at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
decreasing to 5 knots or less from the south/southwest tonight.
VCSH will continue at all of the taf sites this afternoon before
going mostly dry tonight. There could be a thunderstorm or two
over Lake Okeechobee region and northeast areas, but not enough to
put into the taf site of KPBI. There could be some fog over the
interior areas, but not likely to affect the taf sites tonight.
The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions, but could fall
down into MVFR conditions with any shower passage.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 941 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018/

High pressure over the Bahamas extending westward across South
Florida will continue to slowly weaken through tonight, as a cold
front over the Florida Panhandle moves slowly southward down the
Florida Peninsula to near Central Florida by tonight. This will
allow for a south/southwest steering flow over the region today
swinging to more of a southwest direction tonight bringing in some
tropical moisture from the south.

Both the east and west coast sea breezes will also develop today
and push inland with the west coast sea breeze being the primary
sea breeze across the region. Therefore, isolated to scattered
showers and some thunderstorms will be possible over South Florida
this afternoon into this evening with the best coverage over the
Lake Okeechobee region and the northeast areas.

The 12Z MIA sounding was showing some drier air aloft this
morning, but there was also a strong low level cap around 725 mbs.
This cap will take some time to break down today. Therefore, at
this time it looks like any storms that do develop will be primary
lightning strikes.

There is also a chance of seeing some fog late tonight over the
interior areas, due to the light southwest wind flow along with
the low level moisture in place. Therefore, fog wording has been
added to the interior areas of South Florida for late tonight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018/

An area of disturbed weather and increased moisture will bring a
chance of mainly SHRA to South Florida today. There may also be
some TSRA, but mainly in the interior areas. So, removed the
prob30 groups for now, as the chances were lowered with the latest
forecast. However, there is still a slight chance of a TSRA at the
east coast sites, and it may need to be added back in. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, except for possible
IFR under +SHRA or +TSRA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018/

Scattered showers continue across portions of the eastern half of
South Florida early this morning. These showers are expected to
continue across the region as the day progresses. The highest
chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday will remain over
the northern areas and the Lake Okeechobee region. High
temperatures will remain on the warm side for Tuesday as
temperatures will climb into the mid 80s across the east coast
metro areas to near 90 across interior sections. Latest computer
model guidance begin to show a frontal boundary slowly approaching
South Florida during the middle portion of the week. For Wednesday,
latest model guidance has continued to be less aggressive in
bringing the front right across the area at that time, and are
keeping the area under the continuing warm south to southwest wind
regime. This will keep rain chances in the 30-40 percent range
during this time frame.

Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show this frontal
boundary pass through the region during the later portion of the
week. The timing of precipitation out ahead of the front is still
in disagreement as the ECMWF shows most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity moving through Thursday afternoon and into
Thursday evening while the GFS moves it through the area slightly
quicker. This will continue to be monitored as the week progress.
In any event, by Friday, a much drier air mass will move into the
area bringing cooler air along with it as well. High temperatures
on Saturday should be in the mid to upper 70s. The dry air mass
will remain in place throughout the upcoming weekend as well.

East to southeasterly winds will start to veer to a more southerly
direction during the day on Tuesday. Wave heights will range from
2 to 4 feet across the Atlantic waters and 1 to 3 feet across the
Gulf waters on Tuesday. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters through
the middle portion of the week. Winds and waves could be locally
higher in and around any shower or thunderstorm.

West Palm Beach  87  73  86  72 /  20  30  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  86  76 /  20  20  30  50
Miami            86  75  86  74 /  20  20  30  50
Naples           86  71  87  69 /  20  20  40  60



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