Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221943
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: Scattered showers with light to moderate
rainfall across the area will continue, highest chances will be over
the interior and northern portions around the Lake region. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the interior and Lake
regions. Coverage will gradually decrease after sunset with only
a showers overnight tonight.

Temperatures tonight will be around 70 across the interior and
mid-70s along the east coast.

SHORT TERM (Wednesday and Thursday): South Florida remains under a
plume of tropical moisture with southeasterly flow with a high
pressure in the Atlantic. Wednesday looks to be the lowest rain
chances we have had in awhile across South Florida. Still there will
be a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy skies will continue to
prevail. As we move into Thursday moisture will gradually increase
throughout the day with more diurnal showers and storms occurring
in the afternoon and evening as the deep tropical moisture begins
to move into the region.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through the Weekend): Late this week into
the weekend models still continue to differ on the tropical
disturbance in the western Caribbean as it moves into the central
or eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is still too early to determine if
any low does develop,timing and where it would go. Some models
have it moving toward the northern Gulf and others towards the
Florida panhandle and FL Gulf coast. The National Hurricane
Center currently is giving the system a 40 percent chance of
development in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 5 days. Regardless
of any low development or not, South Florida will be under another
tropical moisture surge. Model soundings have PWATs above 2
inches and the potential for heavy rainfall across the entire
region is once again possible late week into the weekend. With
already saturated ground and elevated canal levels we will have to
monitor the potential for flooding rains as the event evolves.

&&

.MARINE...Scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the South Florida waters tomorrow and Thursday.
Thunderstorms over the waters may lead to locally erratic winds
and briefly higher waves. Winds will begin to diminish tomorrow
southeasterly around 10 to 15 knots. Another surge of moisture
with higher rain chances and an increase in winds late this week
through the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
An area of moisture continues to reside over South Florida,
bringing scattered showers to much of the area. Most of the
showers are light in nature and thunderstorm activity has been
minimal at best. SHRA should come to an end this evening, and pick
up again tomorrow, although coverage may be sparse once again.
Kept VCSH this afternoon, to cover the pop up SHRA that does occur
along the coast, although no impact to flight conditions is
forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
High risk of rip currents continues at the Atlantic Beaches
through 8 PM EDT this evening. A moderate risk of rip currents at
Atlantic beaches tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  83  74  83 /  20  30  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  83  75  83 /  20  30  30  40
Miami            75  84  75  83 /  20  30  30  40
Naples           73  85  73  84 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...13
BEACH FORECAST...33/Kelly






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