Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
146 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

High pressure to the north will gradually slide off the coast
later today and tonight. A cold front slowly moves through
later on Thursday with dry high pressure building in late in
the week through the weekend.


As of 100 PM Monday...Minor adjustments to dewpoints this
update to account for trend and a slight downward bump to PoPs
through this evening. The rest of the forecast remains on

Previous Discussion...
As of 640 AM Mon...Latest sfc analysis
shows 1028mb high pressure centered over New England, ridging
southward through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. High
pressure will grad shift eastward off the New England coast
through the day, as onshore low level flow and strong mid level
ridging continue across ENC. Showers still trying to develop
over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Expect activity to
migrate toward the coast through the day with onshore flow,
though think precip will have a difficult time overcoming the
mid level dry air. Isolated to widely scattered coastal showers
expected today, mainly east of Hwy 17. Highs today in the low to
mid 80s with partly cloudy skies.


As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure ridging in from the north will
grad slide off the New England coast tonight, as frontal system
moves through the Mid-West, and coastal trough begins to develop
along the SE coast. Low level easterly flow will grad veer
overnight, becoming SE as high pressure shifts off the coast.
Threat for isolated to scattered coastal showers will continue
as moisture and waa increase. Increasing cloud cover should keep
lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and upper 60s/low 70s along
the coast.


As of 345 AM Mon...Dry weather to start the extended period
with increasing rain chances by mid week with a strong but slow
moving cold front. Above normal temps in the middle 80s through
Wednesday, will cool back to near or even below seasonal norms
by the end of the week into the weekend.

Tuesday...Mainly dry weather still expected during this time
with weak ridging cont over our area. Only expecting iso showers
as flow regime shifts to serly, bringing slightly higher lower
atms moisture over ENC. However, with ridging cont aloft, no
more than 20% covg, best chances swrn zones. Summer will be
holding on with highs in the middle 80s by day and into the
upper 60s to lower 70s by night with warm and humid regime.

Wednesday through Thursday...Some model disagreements continue
with 20/00Z global model suite. Slower ECM has support from the
CMC in bringing a slow moving cold front through on Thursday,
while GFS is a bit faster with front passing through Wed night.
Have based fcst on the slower and more consistent soln, which
brings highest covg of showers on Thursday into Thursday
evening. Thus have tapered back pops a bit on Wed, with the
likelies confined to wrn/swrn zones. As moisture convergence
amplifies Wed night and esp Thur, with PW`s surging to aoa 2" at
times, periods of heavy rain are possible with some embedded
thunder, though instability is fairly meager per model sndgs.
Long skinny CAPE profiles with deep warm cloud layer and slow
progression of the front as upper trough becomes closed over the
lower Great Lakes means periods of heavy rain are possible
beginning late Wed, cont through Thu, and eventually ending Thu
evening. The latest ECM is even slower and cont showers over the
ern zones into Fri.

Friday through Sunday...Cooler and drier air mass builds in
with high pres oozing into the ern CONUS and broad scale nwrly
flow as the region is under broad long wave troughing. Hts near
climo or slightly below will lead to slightly lower than avg
temps with highs generally around 80 and lows in the mid 50s
interior to mid 60s beaches.


SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 115 PM Monday...VFR prevails through tonight with
fairweather CU between FL030 and FL050 and Eerly winds 5 to 10
kts with occasional gusts up to 15kts this afternoon. Guidance
has backed off on the chance of patchy fog developing with SFC
winds not completely decoupling. The models are also not hitting
the low level stratus as hard, but with the increased low level
moisture from the onshore flow, have opted to keep sub VFR CIGs
in this TAF cycle for most of the TAF sites with more sheltered
locations likely to see CIGs approaching IFR levels, but
confidence was not high enough to include IFR this cycle. VFR
flight cats expected Tuesday with light E/ESEerly winds 5 to
10kts and cloud coverage increasing through the day.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Mon...Mainly VFR conditions expected through Tue.
Sub VFR conditions develop as early as Wed, but esp on Thu as
strong and slow moving cold front push through with numerous
showers and lowered cigs and vsby. Return to VFR on Fri as high
pres begins to build in.


SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 140 PM Monday...No changes to this update as forecast
remains on track. Latest buoy obs show NEerly winds 10 to 15kts
and seas 3 to 4 ft across the waters with periods 7 to 9
seconds for northern waters and more wind driven waves south of
Cape Hatteras with periods of 4 to 6 seconds.

Previous Discussion...
As of 640 AM Mon...High pressure ridging in from the north will
grad slide eastward off the NE coast today and tonight. Moderate
E-NE winds 10-15 kt will continue today, grad becoming more SE
tonight. A moderate tightening of the gradient could bring
periods of gusts around 20 kt, mainly for the southern waters.
Seas will remain pred 2-4 ft with occasional 5 ft across the
outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Mon...Fairly benign maritime conditions through Tue
as winds will be light serly with seas of 2-4 ft.

Winds pick up in speed Wed and esp Wed night into Thu ahead of
slowly approaching cold front, with speeds of 15-20 kt expected
and seas building to 4-7 ft. The front finally passes through
late Thu or early Fri, with winds turning nrly and becoming
lighter once again.

We may begin to see distant swells and higher seas after Thu
with the possibility of a distant tropical system.




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