300
FXUS62 KMHX 262229
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
629 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to sink south through the area
this evening, moving offshore tonight. High pressure then
builds in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

 - Localized heavy rain/flooding risk continues into early this
   evening

The cold front appears to be stalled over the Crystal Coast
early this evening, gradually moving south of the area in the
next few hours. PW`s continue well above 2" today and with
upper level divergence due to the right entrance region
providing ample lift for showers and iso thunderstorms with
torrential downpours, especially along and south of Highway 70
and over the south/central coastal waters. Heaviest rain now
offshore may impact the Crystal Coast over the next hour or two.
Think this current activity should begin to weaken and decrease
in coverage around 00Z with the loss of heating. Will allow
Flood Watch to expire at 7 PM, with the threat becoming much
more localized.

Overnight there is a question of how soon the dry air makes it
to the coast. Inland, drier air filters in late this evening and
overnight with very little no significant precipitation expected
after midnight. Along the southeast coast to the southern Outer
Banks however, the forecast becomes more murky as an area of
low pressure is forecast to develop along the front which will
be just south of our area. Some of the guidance is indicating
that another area of showers/possible thunderstorms developing
late this evening into early Sat morning. Therefore will have
high chance-low likely PoPs in these areas for much of tonight.

Widespread low clouds are expected to develop after midnight in
the still moist low level easterly flow. Could see patchy fog as
well but think there will be enough mixing and cloud cover to
inhibit widespread dense fog. Lows will be in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...Will reluctantly hold on to a low chance
PoP immediate coast Sat morning in case the wetter guidance is
correct, but overall expect pleasant summer day with lower
humidity as dewpoints drop into the 60s for the first time in a
long time with NE flow prevailing. The morning is expected to
start out cloudy then expect afternoon sunshine with pleasant
highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Drier pattern sets up for the weekend before
returning to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the next work
week.

Sat night through Mon...Upper trough will depart off the
eastern seaboard, eventually leaving behind a cutoff low off the
coast of the mid-Atlantic, which will retreat back into New
England to start the week. The surface cold front will be
offshore at the surface as high pressure builds in its wake,
sticking around only for the weekend before moving back over the
Atlantic on Monday. Dry conditions will prevail as dry air and
subsidence spill over the Carolinas thanks to northerly flow
aloft. Conditions will feel more comfortable compared to the
past several days as dew points drop into the low to mid-60s,
especially across the coastal plain, while highs top out in the
mid to upper 80s - slightly below average for late July. Muggier
conditions hold strong along the coast.

Tues through Thur...Any semblance of ridging aloft breaks down
after Monday as the cutoff low continues to meander westward
before being absorbed by the northern stream shortwave. This
will leave a general troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS
for the remainder of the week, meaning moist southwesterly flow
returns along with a more typical summertime regime
characterized by diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Support aloft will not be nearly as strong, and moisture not as
anomalous as the previous several days, so climo PoPs are
appropriate for ENC starting Tuesday. Mid-level heights rise
above average, and temperatures gradually follow suit,
increasing to near-normal readings in the low 90s by the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

 - Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions expected through early Sat

Currently a mix of MVFR and VFR across the terminals. The
shower activity should dissipate by midnight then moist easterly
flow behind the cold front is expected to result in the
development of widespread IFR ceilings after midnight. Some
patchy fog is also possible but is not expected to be
widespread. The low clouds are forecast to persist until late
Sat morning then drier air filtering in will mix them out with a
return to VFR conditions between 15-18Z.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM Fro...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast from
Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area.
Fog and low stratus are possible each night, although the
likelihood is higher starting Tuesday as high pressure moves
offshore and deeper moisture returns.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

 - Thunderstorm risk continues into tonight

 - Possible SCA conditions Sat afternoon into Sat night for the
   southern and central waters

A cold front, currently vicinity of Cape Lookout will move
south and through the remainder of the waters late this evening.
On Sat, low pressure will develop along the front early then
move NE away from the waters in the afternoon into early
evening. Ahead of the front over the southern waters late today
winds are SSW 10-15 kt with E winds 5-15 kt occurring behind
the front over the sounds and central and northern waters.
Tonight winds all waters will become NE 10-15 kt with seas
around 3 ft.

The marine weather Sat will depend on the strength and track of
the developing low with the potential for SCA conditions over
the southern and central waters. Some guidance has winds as high
as 20-25 kt (with seas 6-8 ft) while the majority of the models
indicate NE winds 15-20 kt and seas 3 to 5 ft. Have sided with
the majority solution and have conditions just below advisory
conditions. We will continue to monitor and a SCA may need to be
issued in subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Fri...No hazardous marine conditions are
anticipated in the long term. High pressure builds back over
the waters behind the front Sat night and Sunday before quickly
moving offshore on Monday, resulting in winds returning to a
more typical south- to- southwesterly flow to start the work
week. Outside of the NE surge behind the front Sat evening,
winds in the long term will remain around 5-10 kt, with typical
increases in late afternoons as thermal gradients increase. Seas
peak at 4-5 feet on Sat and Sun before returning to 2-3 feet on
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 630 PM Friday...Today is expected to be the final day
with the potential for excessive rainfall across ENC, as a cold
front moves through, and finally offshore, by late tonight.
Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr will be supportive of flash
flooding today, especially in areas where soils are most
susceptible, and where FFG values are low. Will allow Flood
Watch to expire early this evening with heavy rain threat being
much more localized. After today, attention then turns to river
flooding, as mainstem rivers respond to all of the rain over
the past several days.

A Flood Warning is currently in effect for the Trent River in
Jones County.

Stay tuned in case additional river flood warnings/products are
needed through this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...JME/CQD/MS
MARINE...JME/CQD/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX