Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 202317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
617 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.UPDATE...Lake effect clouds may increase once again tnt-Wed AM as
temps aloft cool slightly. This could be offset if slightly drier
air arrives as well. Either way, high clouds will continue until
decreasing from west to east across srn WI through Wed AM or early
afternoon. High temps for Wed should warm slightly from today
given more afternoon sunshine.


.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Sct-bkn020-030 expected over ern WI
tnt-Wed AM via lake effect. The nely boundary layer flow will
become due nly by Wed aft with lake effect clouds dissipating.
Wind gusts around 30 kts near Lake MI will continue for a few
hours into the evening, then gradually falling through the night.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018)


Tonight and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Low pressure in the southeast US will continue to pull into the
eastern seaboard this period. A tighter pressure gradient with our
gusty northeast winds relaxes getting into Wednesday, so less
wind. However, low level thermal trough amplifies a bit which will
combine with the onshore flow to generate some lake clouds. That
along with with ample coverage of thicker cirrus should keep
things more cloudy than not through at least Wednesday morning.
Trajectories become less favorable for clouds and there is a
decrease in higher RH noted for Wednesday afternoon so more
sunshine potential as the day wears on.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Medium to High
More quiet weather as high pressure dominates. The flow around
the high will keep a northeast wind in place so a cool regime will

Friday night and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
12z ECMWF followed the trend of the GFS of shifting the system
more to our southwest so highest POPS will be in our western and
southern service area. But the GFS is hardly showing anything in
our western cwa at the moment. The ECMWF is still the more
aggressive solution but it has shifted from its earlier more
direct-hit look. Still a few days away here so further waffling
one way or the other still possible. Still looking at some
potential snow accumulation mainly in the western and southern

Saturday night through Sunday night - Confidence...Medium
Looks like a return to ridging so expect this to be a quiet

Monday and Tuesday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Another system is proggd to move through the area. The GFS is
faster than the ECMWF. At this time the thermal profile is more
supportive of rain than snow.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Thick cirrus overhead. Some MVFR stratocu in
the southeast. The progs continue to show this potential into the
overnight hours due to amplifying low level thermal trough combined
with the onshore flow.

MARINE...Gusty northeast winds persist with the higher wave
action persisting. Small Craft Advisory looks good.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
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