Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151642
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1142 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...Have made some wind adjustments with the front that came
down the lake and spreading inland.

PC

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Front came down the lake with wind shift to
the northeast. KMKE gusted to 27 knots. Upstream obs show things
settling down though still sustained from the northeast. Cumulus
buildup noted with passage of front scouring things out. Jet
related cirrus cruising sw-ne upstairs. overall, quiet. Some of
the NAM solutions generating fog tonight. For now leaning towards
a more patchy scenario, though winds will be light so something to
monitor.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 913 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018)

UPDATE...No changes to forecast at this time.

PC

MARINE...Will be keeping a close eye on the higher north wind
gusts riding south along the lake today. May go with a Marine
Weather Statement should the higher gusts/brief period of higher
waves hold together into our area.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 627 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018)

UPDATE...The clouds will continue to decrease this morning. The
forecast is on track for today.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Areas of fog north and west of Madison this morning
should dissipate by 14z, along with areas of low Cigs that are
over S WI. VFR conditions are then expected the remainder of the
day into the evening. There is a low potential for fog tnt in
river valleys and other low lying areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 355 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

Scattered showers will continue across ern WI over the next couple
hours with the passage of the shortwave trough and cold front. The
winds shifting to nw
Update...Nly should help dissipate the fog over far se WI this
morning. Another cold front/lake breeze will move inland from Lake
MI this afternoon but not before temps reach 65-70F over the lake
counties with near 80F west of Madison. It appears enough drying
of low level moisture will occur to prevent any showers along the
secondary cold front this afternoon for well inland locations.
High pressure will then settle over S WI tnt with low temps mainly
in the 40s.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

We`re heading into a great stretch of weather for the latter half
of the week. Dry high pressure will settle over southern
Wisconsin tomorrow and persist through Friday. Light winds
Wednesday will allow for a lake breeze. Expect cooler but
pleasant highs around 70 near the lake and highs around 80 inland.
A steadier easterly breeze will bring temps down a notch farther
inland on Thursday and Friday, but they will still be a nice days
with plenty of sunshine.

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A cold front will track southeast through Wisconsin over the
weekend. There are timing differences with the precip associated
with the front. It`s possible that Friday night convection over
the Midwest could reach southern WI Saturday morning. The main
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon
and night.

Precip may linger into Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon looks
like it should clear up as high pressure settles back in.

Monday and beyond... Forecast confidence is medium.

Expect quiet and pleasant weather on Monday and Tuesday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will return for the middle of next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Areas of fog over far se WI will improve
through sunrise as a weak cold front brings nly winds to the area.
The nly winds will gradually bring drier air to the region this
morning with low Cigs dissipating by 13-15z. VFR conditions
are then expected the remainder of the day into the evening. There
is a low potential for fog tnt in river valleys and other low
lying areas.

MARINE...Nnely winds will rise to around 15 kts today with waves
building to 2 to 4 feet. Lighter winds and low wave heights are
expected the remainder of the week with lake breezes each day.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Cronce



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