Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 162038
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
338 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight And Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

High pressure will weaken as it moves east tonight, with another
stronger high taking hold well northeast of the area on Thursday.
The influence of the high will keep things dry during this period.
Mesoscale models not showing much in the way of fog potential
late tonight, so left out of forecast.

A cold front will slide southward between 09Z and 15Z Thursday
across the area, quickest near Lake Michigan. This will bring
cooler high temperatures for Thursday near Lake Michigan, with 60s
to lower 70s. Upper 70s to lower 80s seem reasonable across most
of south central Wisconsin.

There may be an area of low clouds that try to move southward
into the area during the afternoon across the area. There is some
uncertainty with how extensive these clouds may be, so kept partly
sunny forecast going for Thursday afternoon. May see cooler
temperatures Thursday if the clouds are more widespread.

Thursday Night Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

NAM/GFS are now taking the 500 mb low northeast toward northeast
Illinois/northwest Indiana Friday night. This may bring more
clouds and deeper moisture into the eastern portions of the area.
Given this trend, brought more clouds and lower end PoPs for
showers Friday night in the eastern counties. May need PoPs for
Saturday in this area as well, if models continue on this more
northerly trend with the 500 mb low track. Onshore winds Friday
and Saturday will keep highs in the 60s near Lake Michigan, with
middle 70s expected inland.

.LONG TERM...

Saturday Night Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models look to be taking a surface low northeast into northern
Iowa Saturday night and Sunday, then east as a weakening
low/vertically stacked 500 mb low Sunday night and Monday across
the region. Focused warm air advection Sunday into Sunday night
would give the best chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Some showers may linger into Monday, as the surface low/500 mb low
move through the region. Kept blended model PoPs for this period
for now.

Cool temperatures Sunday with clouds and possible precipitation
look reasonable, becoming more near seasonal normals on Monday.
High pressure then may bring a period of dry conditions into the
middle of next week, with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected late this afternoon, tonight into
Thursday across terminals. Southeast lake breeze will linger into
early this evening, with winds light into the overnight hours. Not
expecting fog formation overnight.

A cold front pushes south across the area between 09Z and 15Z
Thursday. Winds will shift quickly to the north/northeast, with
gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible in the afternoon, especially near
Lake Michigan. There may be some low clouds that move south into
the area Thursday afternoon. At this point, not confident enough
to mention in TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front will push south across Lake Michigan between 08Z and
12Z Thursday, with winds shifting quickly to the north/northeast
and remaining gusty through the day and possibly into Thursday
night. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are expected at times. Waves of 2
to 4 feet should develop in the afternoon and linger into the
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Some locations along the Fox (north), Rock, Fox (south) and Root
Rivers will continue to experience minor flooding over the next
several days. Most of these rivers will take several days to crest
and fall. See our Flood Statements for the latest river forecast
information.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Wood



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