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907
FXUS64 KJAN 281135 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
535 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Conditions have improved in the north faster than expected and VFR
conditions will prevail through this evening across the HWY 82
corridor. IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys were observed at 1130Z
cntrl and south. Conditions will slowly improve this morning from
the north. MVFR cigs may linger into the aftn in the south but VFR
conditions are expected areawide by 21Z. VFR conditions wl prevail
through the evening but -RA and gradually lowering cigs are
expected from the southwest after 06Z. MVFR cigs and -RA are
expected at most TAF sites by the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight: Dry today with near normal afternoon highs
followed by a return of rain chances tonight along with warmer than
normal morning lows. Early morning surface analysis had a 1025mb
centered over the central Plains and a stalled frontal boundary
across southeast Mississippi. This surface high will track east
today and finish pushing the stalled boundary south of our CWA as it
ushers cooler and drier air into our region. The rainfall associated
with the boundary was already south of our CWA but just north of the
boundary, patchy fog will continue until 9am. Although satellite
imagery shows clouds eroding our northern zones, the southern branch
of the jet stream will remain overhead and maintain a decent amount
of cloud cover, especially over the southeast half of our area. The
surface high will continue tracking east of our region while our
winds aloft become southwesterly ahead of a closed low moving across
the southern Plains. This will result in isentropic upglide and
the development of light rain from the southwest. There is a spread
in the guidance on how early this light rain will move back into our
CWA and how far northeast it will get by morning but, widespread
rain is expected over the southwest half of the CWA by Sunday
morning with lowest pops carried in our northeast. /22/

Sunday through the upcoming week...

The active and progressive weather pattern that has prevailed
across the region will continue through the upcoming week
resulting in several impacts to the region including rain, storms,
and freezing temperatures.

As we get into Sunday, an upper closed low will begin to approach
the region from the west, bringing with it an associated surface
low that will ride along the Gulf Coast. This approaching system
will help to spread rain and storms into the region throughout the
day. Even though the region will remain north of the any
significant instability values, ample deep layer shear should be
supportive of isolated severe storms. The best chances for severe
storms on Sunday will exist during the early half of the day in
areas south of the I-20 corridor where there could be some
over achievement in instability values paired with the deep
shear. These storms will also have deep moisture available to tap
into and combined with wet antecedent conditions, a flash
flooding threat could develop in the SW.

The upper closed low will open and continue its track across the
MS Valley on late Sunday into Monday, pushing a cold front through
the region. A drier, arctic airmass will filter into the region
behind the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be well below
average values. As the cold surface high settles over the region
through the early portions of the week, lows on Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings will fall into the 20s areawide. This airmass
will be the coldest of the season thus far and may end up being
the coldest the region has seen so far this calendar year. The
coldest temperature we`ve recorded in Jackson so far this year was
27 degrees on 1/21, as of now a low of 26 in Jackson is
forecasted for Tuesday morning. This will also be the first
widespread and significant freeze for the region, putting an end
to the extended growing season.

We will see the return of moisture as we get towards the latter
portion of the week as the surface high slides east of the region.
Rain chances will increase once again by Thursday as another upper
disturbance pushes a surface front through the region. As of now,
most global models are still keeping us warm enough out ahead of
the arrival of precip and keeping the cold air far enough behind
the cold front to make wintry precip look unlikely during this
late week period. However, we`ll keep monitoring trends in
subsequent forecasts. /JM/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  51  61  38 /   1  71  94  14
Meridian      64  50  63  39 /   1  51  96  21
Vicksburg     62  50  60  38 /   1  79  90   8
Hattiesburg   67  54  68  41 /   4  80  97  13
Natchez       64  53  61  39 /   7  90  88   5
Greenville    59  45  53  36 /   0  44  90  18
Greenwood     61  47  56  36 /   0  34  91  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/22