Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190216 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
916 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Stratus clouds now dropping southward across the area, and made
some adjustment to sky conditions to account for the timing of
this. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

A cold front is currently crossing the region this afternoon with
much cooler temperatures moving in behind it. Light showers have
developed ahead of the front with pcpn confined to northeastern SD
and western MN. This pcpn will continue pushing northeast for the
next few hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible in
south-central SD where skies where clear for most of the day. With
limited instability, these storms should remain subsevere.

Beyond this evening, the CWA looks much drier than the previous
forecast. Cool, surface high pressure building the region tonight
will filter drier air into the northern half of the CWA on Saturday.
PCPN looks best south of Highway 14, or closer to I90. With partly
cloudy skies and less humidity, high temperatures on Saturday may be
warmer than expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Good agreement in the long term models with the upper level features
affecting the region for the Saturday night through Friday period.
For Saturday night through Monday, the models show a weak upper
level low pressure area moving across Nebraska and Iowa maybe
spreading some light showers up into our far southern and southeast
cwa from Saturday night into Sunday night. The models then show a
large upper level low pressure area developing over the southwest
U.S. Sunday night into Monday. This will be our weather maker
starting Tuesday afternoon through Friday as this system sends off
one short wave trough after another until it weakens as the whole
system moves out and into our region by the end of the week.
Therefore, the consensus was for chances of showers and storms from
Tuesday afternoon through Friday across our cwa. Temperatures on
Sunday will be from 5 to 10 degrees below normal as cooler east to
northeast winds prevail. Temperatures will be warming to 5 to 10
degrees above normal by Tuesday and remain through Friday. Highs in
the 60s on Sunday will rise into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by
Tuesday and remain through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Cigs will be a mix of MVFR and VFR this evening into the overnight
hours. MVFR cigs will linger across the east into the morning
hours Saturday as well. By midday or so, the entire area should be
seeing VFR conditions.




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