Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 112257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
556 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Early afternoon surface analysis showed a weak surface cold
front/wind shift extending from east-central Minnesota through
central Iowa. Visible satellite showed an expansive area of stratus
stretching from the Minnesota/Canadian border south through the
local forecast area, reaching as far as southern Missouri and
Kansas. The stratus will remain over the area through Monday.
Morning RAP runs indicated clearing for areas west of the
Mississippi River on Monday morning, though the latest runs trended
farther west with the western edge of the clouds, similar to the
11.12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF, so only a small portion of the area may
see clearing before clouds fill back in Monday afternoon.

Despite the widespread low clouds, any precipitation chances are
confined to the far northern forecast area as an upper level short
wave slides just north of the area this evening, potentially
providing just enough lift to squeeze out some flurries and/or
sprinkles. Another slightly stronger wave will take a similar path
Monday afternoon/evening, but little to no snow accumulation is

Temperature-wise, expect lows tonight in the 20s and highs tomorrow
in the 30s to lower 40s, but cloud trends will certainly play a role
in this. Should southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa see a bit
more clearing tonight, may need to bump down lows tonight and bump
up highs Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

11.12Z models are in agreement that there will be long wave
troughing in place over the eastern part of the country to start
the week. A system coming across eastern Canada will help to
amplify this troughing and an embedded short wave trough will
cross the Great Lakes and bring some weak forcing across
Wisconsin Monday night. This forcing could be enough for a little
bit of light snow south of Lake Superior with some flurries
possible over all but the far western sections of the state.
Outside of this system, there does not look to be a chance for any
precipitation until late in the week.

As the eastern trough moves slowly out over the Atlantic, the long
wave ridging over the Rockies will slide east and over the Midwest
for the middle of the week. This will allow some warmer air to
move over the region with highs Thursday and Friday expected to be
in the 40s to lower 50s.

The chances for some precipitation will also return starting
Friday and continue on and off through the weekend. Right now, the
models are in agreement of a cut off low with long wave troughing
developing off the Pacific Coast during the middle of the week. A
short wave trough ejected from this system looks to top the ridge
axis and move across the Upper Midwest Friday and Friday night.
This will bring a chance of rain to the area with a little bit of
light snow possible Friday night. The Pacific system then looks to
open up and move east over the weekend with the remains of it
coming across the region Sunday. Some differences between the
models on how strong the system will still be at that time, but
with temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s, will again be
mainly rain with a little bit of light snow possible Saturday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Big variety of flight categories across the area this evening,
ranging from some LIFR near the Minnesota-Iowa border to generally
VFR conditions in southern Wisconsin.

Weak short wave passing through just enough to provide subtle lift
and with weak cold air advection, producing brief period of lower
visibilities just along cold front. Expect this lowering trend to
move in this evening, but then improve somewhat as wave passes.
Still likely looking at IFR conditions though for most until higher
ceilings make it closer to daybreak Monday.

Some clearing expected from the west, but next short wave that drops
into western Great Lakes Monday could swing clouds back in from the




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