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000
FXUS61 KCTP 130904
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
504 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Windy & cooler today with frequent gusts over 40 mph
-Up to a few inches of snow accumulating this morning across
 the northern tier mtns
-Partly cloudy with decreasing wind tonight
-Isolated strong/severe t-storms possible late Sunday afternoon
 and evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong surface low (985 MB) just SE of James Bay and a highly
amplified upper trough from Wrn Quebec to the Delmarva Coast
will team up to bring snow over the northern mountains of PA
through the mid morning hours today with light rain throughout
the Valleys of Ncent and NE PA. locally 2-3 inches of snow is
expected across the higher terrain near and to the east of KBFD
in the Northern Mtns, while a slushy coating to one inch of snow
will occur in the valleys near the Route 6 corridor.

The strongest WNW winds at the top of the well-mixed layer of
50-55 kts occur through about 13-14Z today before falling to the
upper 30s this afternoon as the aforementioned sfc low moves NNE
and the tight llvl p-gradient relaxes just a little.

Forecast model soundings indicate about a 10-hour period of
clearing from roughly 18Z today through 04Z Sunday.

Expanded the previous Wind Advisory through our eastern zones
as the relatively deep boundary layer taps some 40+ Kt momentum
from the 4-5 kft agl layer and transports is to the ground. The
advisory is in effect until 22Z today.

Otherwise, enjoy the sun this afternoon since it`ll help to warm
the unseasonably chilly temps in the low to mid 40s north, and
upper 40s to mid 50s across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley.

It will be a chilly start to the weekend with daybreak temps in
the low 30s to mid 40s with a wind chill in the upper 20s to mid
30s across the Northern Mtns and 40s to low 50s in most other
places throughout Central and Southern PA.

Afternoon high temps today will range from the low 40s (north) to
mid 50s in Southern Valleys, or 5 to 15 degrees below the
historical average for mid April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast remains consistent with previous for this timeframe as
conditions trend from clear to partly cloud tonight before
POPs ramp up from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front
pushing southeast from the Great Lakes.

SPC has placed all of CPA in a SLGT, fully surrounded by a MRGL
risk (levels 1 and 2 out of 4) with isolated strong to severe
t-storms possible mainly in the late afternoon and evening.

Showers should accompany the front as it sinks southward across
the area later Sunday evening into Sunday night before pushing
south of the MD line by Monday morning. High pressure builds in
for the start of next week bringing fair weather and pleasant
temperatures.

After a noticeable cooldown Fri-Sat, expect a nice warm up to
end the weekend and begin next week with highs rebounding
into the 60-75F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridging overhead at the start of the long term will break
down as a warm front lifts over the area. Very light/patchy
rain caused by the warm advection will be followed by SCT
SHRA/TSRA as we get into the warm sector for the mid-week
period. Weak CFROPA Wed PM attempts to cool things down, but
weak ridge and some clearing behind it will allow temps to get
just a bit warmer than Wed. A few srn cities may get to 80F. The
real cold front arrives quickly, though, so timing is of
paramount importance to get the temps correct for Fri. Temps may
be falling throughout the day on Fri. Because of timing
differences in the deterministic models, we will hang closer to
a broad brush of 40-50 PoPs from Thurs PM-Fri PM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Westerly flow is leading to a typical distribution of
conditions across Central Pennsylvania with MVFR ceilings in the
western highlands and VFR farther east. Expect cigs to come
down a bit more overnight, with BFD seeing cigs drop to IFR,
the central mtns dropping to low-end MVFR, and the Lower Susq
Valley seeing cigs drop to borderline VFR/MVFR. Scattered rain
showers will taper off for most of the region overnight and snow
showers will affect BFD for the next several hours.

Gusty westerly sfc winds will persist overnight as well. Even
with the sfc winds remaining gusty, there will still be
unidirectional LLWS overnight (especially over the western
highlands and central mtns) thanks to a 45-55 kt westerly wind
just off the sfc.

Gradually improving conds are expected on Saturday, with
lingering shower activity diminishing. MVFR ceilings will
improve to VFR everywhere in the afternoon with clear skies
building in. Winds will occasionally gust to 40 knots Saturday
afternoon before tapering off into the evening.

Outlook...

Sun...Predominantly VFR, but a chance of late day
showers/storms with brief restrictions.

Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue night...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed...Showers/storms and brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Dangelo
AVIATION...Banghoff/Evanego