Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 242350
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil and dry weather is expected to last into Tuesday.
Periods of rain/showers are most likely during the Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday night period. Seasonal temperatures
are forecast through the end of March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strengthening dome of high pressure migrating northeast from
southern Ontario/Quebec into the Maritimes will channel down the
east-side of the Appalachians and provide fair and dry weather
tonight through Monday.

Clear and chilly tonight. Leaning colder vs. NBM for min temps
(below the 50th percentile) particularly in the central and
eastern valleys where winds should be the lightest.

Mostly sunny and milder tomorrow with just a bit of thin cirrus
associated with developing warm advection aloft. Model 900mb
temps between 1C and 4C support fairly uniform highs in the
50-55F range. Dry air above a weak inversion in the forecast
soundings supports undercutting NBM dewpoints Monday, closer to
the MAV and NBM10pct values.

Winds from the east and southeast will increase through Monday
afternoon especially over the Laurel Highlands and NW
Alleghenies in response to a tightening pressure gradient over
western PA. Peak gusts are forecast in the 20-30 mph range
(highest on the ridge tops). The wind and minRH combo could have
fire weather implications depending on how much dead fuel moisture
can dry out/cure following the rainfall earlier in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Southeast winds continue to trend higher over the western and
northern Alleghenies Monday night, as low level jet slides over
Western PA. Gusts up to 40 mph appear possible on the ridgetops
of the Alleghenies based on model soundings.

Minimum temps Monday night in the 30s begin a series of higher
lows through midweek adding +5-10F night/night. Frontal system
slows and weakens as it approaches the Appalachians Tuesday
yielding to developing low over the southeast states. Model data
suggests shower band reaches the western periphery of the CWA
by Tuesday afternoon. Lack of forcing/convergence will hold POPs
in the 40-60% range Tuesday night through Wednesday shading
higher toward the southeast/Lower Susq into midweek as frontal
zone shifts toward the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Tuesday`s cold front should dissipate by
Wednesday night. A low level south easterly flow will develop
into Thursday morning with a coastal low developing off the
Carolinas bringing increased moisture and rain chances along a
weak warm frontal boundary. Current guidance suggest rain will
be confined to the Susquehanna Valley and SE PA.

There remains some model spread/forecast uncertainty regarding
how far the weakening front progresses. Recent EPS guidance has
tracked more precipitation into eastern PA and have increased
PoPs in the Thursday while the GEFS keeps the developing surface
low on the front will track further to the east. There is still
a bit of uncertainty with regards to frontal placement and the
development of the low, so have mainly capped at SChc/Chc for
this timeframe. The bulk of precipitation is expected to exit by
Friday morning, leaving central PA mainly dry and mild for the
weekend. Scattered showers are expected to return for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through the 00Z TAF period with mainly
clear skies expected through most of Monday. A tightening
pressure gradient across the western mountains will lead to
increasing southeasterly winds into the morning with gusts of 20
to 25 knots possible by the early afternoon for western sites.
Some high clouds will begin to move in from the west Monday
afternoon as warm advection increases ahead of an upper level
trough that will move towards Central PA into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue...Increasing clouds.

Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs expected.

Wed night-Fri...Improving conds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Depending on how much dead fuel moisture can dry out, minRH and
winds suggest the potential for an elevated risk of wildfire
spread mainly over western portions of central PA including the
Allegheny Plateau and ANF regions/districts.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Bauco
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl


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