000
FXUS63 KMPX 110435
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1135 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected over the
  next week, outside of a cooler day in the 50s on Thursday.

- Isolated showers & thunderstorms across Minnesota this
  afternoon and evening with a better chance for a round of
  widespread rain early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Today and Thursday... temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s
and lower 70s early this afternoon. Winds have remained reasonable
around 10mph out of the west with a few gusts up to 20mph. Afternoon
Cu field has developed over much of the region and should become
agitated over the next hour or so. This will prompt isolated to
scattered shower development through the evening hours. A few
stronger storms could produce pea sized hail and brief gusty
winds, but the lack of bulk shear and meaningful instability
mean these storms lack any bite. Temperatures bottom out in the
40s overnight before warming into the 50s on Thursday. Broad
scattered showers are likely on Thursday as a weak shortwave
moves through into the Great Lakes. Again, nothing significant
expected, but it`ll cause a brief blip in temperatures before
the weekend warm up. Winds will be gusty, with a 30-35mph gusts
likely across southern and western Minnesota, winds decreasing
overnight.

Friday through Monday... Friday will be in the 60s with mostly sunny
skies. The focus turns to Saturday & Sunday. Both days will see
temperatures warm into the 70s (and possibly lower 80s in SW MN on
Saturday) with plenty of sunshine little to no chance of
precipitation. Any big warm up this time of year means winds will
likely ramp up and that`s the case. Saturday we`ll see winds out of
the south 20mph gusting to 30mph. Sunday they`ll turn out of the
northwest at 15 to 20mph. Both days will be perfect to get outside
and soak in some sun. There will be some non-zero fire weather
concerns with MinRH values forecast in the 25 to 35% range. We`ll
have to keep an eye on conditions as we near.

Tuesday through Wednesday... our next system takes aim at the Upper
Midwest. Guidance continues to over a variety of potential solutions
yet the general idea is maintained for a sfc low to track from the
Plains into Iowa. A strong signal for precipitation Monday night
through Wednesday morning. NBM suggests strong odds of 0.50" for
much of the region. Another round of beneficial rain as our green up
kicks off our warm season and as recent Summer`s suggest that things
can shut off quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Isolated rain showers will continue overnight, but no impacts to
ceilings or visibility are expected. A few showers are possible
through the morning, but more widespread coverage is expected during
the afternoon. Kept the PROB30 for MVFR showers going at all sites,
although the period of rain at each site will be quite brief.

Mid-level clouds increase overnight, with ceilings lowering to
borderline MVFR/VFR after sunrise. The likelihood of MVFR
ceilings will be higher with any showers that impact terminals.
Northwesterly winds increase through the morning, with gusts
developing around sunrise & increasing to 25-30 kts by late
morning.

KMSP...Can`t rule out an isolated shower during the morning rush,
but the afternoon looks more likely for potential showers & MVFR
visibility. Ceilings will fall to borderline MVFR/VFR after sunrise,
but are more likely to remain MVFR. Northwesterly wind gusts around
25 kts are expected from late morning through sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA