Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 170132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
932 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018


The weather remains quiet this weekend with rather chilly
temperatures. Dry and cool weather remains in place early next


10 pm update....

Few changes with the late evening update based on the latest
obs. Trends over the last few hours include slightly slower
clearing heading into the overnight from Syracuse eastward. One
result is that the low temperatures may end up a degree or two
higher than previously forecasted with most spots in the 10`s
to low 20`s.

The synoptic pattern is defined by a passing short wave from
Quebec southeast through nrn New England tonight and a much
drier air mass building in from the west. The dry air will
really start to pour in from the nw tonight and allow only for
scattered to broken lake clouds and a few flurries into the
overnight hours. Much of the region may end up clearing
off...with the exception of the far east Finger Lakes and the
Mohawk Valley.

Temperatures will be able to cool into the teens overnight due
to the the lack of cloud cover later on (especially south and
west) and the presence of an abnormally cold air mass...850mb
temps around -10 to -11C.

A tight sfc pressure gradient will also remain in place tonight and
allow the strong nw winds that have developed today to persist
tonight and into the early part of Saturday. Expect sustained winds
around 10 to 15 mph tonight...which when combined with lows in the
teens will create wind chills in the single digits.



300 pm update...
The effects from the short wave sliding through will continue to be
felt on Saturday with more isolated flurries...mainly across the nrn
counties into the nrn Catskills during the morning and early
afternoon hours. Heights aloft really start to build later in the
day Saturday with the sfc high sliding in from the west as well. The
air mass will still be on the cold side...and winds will still be
kicking up through most of the day around 10 to 20 mph and gusts to
30 mph. Highs will likely only top out in the upper 20s to the
low 30`s north and into the 30s to the south.

The surface high to the west becomes situated over the eastern
Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday morning...and will allow
for strong radiational cooling under a persistently cold air
mass. Expect temperatures to fall into the upper single digits
and teens.


345 pm update... The main system(s) of interest next week are
still in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, with mostly quiet,
although quite chilly weather otherwise.

Cutting right to the chase, uncertainty remains high with the
potential east coast storm for the middle of next week. Model
variability from run to run continues today, as a number of
model solutions have pushed the storm and its associated
snowfall farther south, with more limited impacts on CNY/NEPA.
However, given that a combination of subtle, complex
interactions within our large-scale pattern will decide how this
storm ultimately evolves, and also the obvious fact that it`s 5+
days away at this point, we felt it prudent to maintain a chance
of snow (generally 30-50% probabilities) for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Hopefully, as all the atmospheric players come
better into view of our data network over the next few days,
model consensus and our confidence alike will increase. In the
meantime, please stay tuned for the latest updates.

As alluded to at the beginning of this discussion, one thing we
are confident in is continued below normal temperatures for mid
to late March. Daytime highs should mainly climb no higher than
the 30s, with overnight lows generally in the teens and 20s.


Lake effect snow showers will taper off between KRME and KSYR
over the next 3-4 hours. In the interim, a few hours of
visibilities around 2SM can be expected at KRME.

West winds at 10 to 20 knots will weaken somewhat overnight as
high pressure builds in. Skies will be VFR across all terminals
by 4z, with VFR conditions persisting through 00z Sunday.


Saturday night through Monday evening...Mainly VFR.

Late Monday night through Wednesday...An increasing chance of
snow and restrictions from possible system moving into area.




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