Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 182333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
633 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

At 330 PM, skies were mostly sunny across the Northland. The warm
front was situated right along the international border, with
temperatures holding in the 60s in extreme northern Koochiching
county. Meanwhile, a few miles south in the county, it was in the
upper 70s to around 80. The remainder of the region was in the
warm sector ahead of the incoming cold front. Temperatures across
the remainder of the Northland were in the upper 70s to lower
80s. The exception was near Lake Superior, where temperatures were
in the 40s.

The focus for tonight and Saturday will be the frontal boundary
moving eastward across western Minnesota. A meridional band of
showers and thunderstorms was just west of Bemidji as of 3 PM. The
showers and storms will continue to move eastward into our area
during the late afternoon and evening. Have increased POP`s across
the board, as it looks like it should hold together fairly well,
at least through the evening. The models differ somewhat as to
whether the precipitation will diminish considerably by the time
if reaches northern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, post frontal rainfall
will also push south and east overnight, bringing a good chance of
showers to much of northern Minnesota.

Overnight lows should drop into the lower 40s in the north, to the
lower to middle 50s in the south central portion of the CWA.
Southerly winds this afternoon will give way to gusty north winds
later tonight and Saturday morning, and then become northeast in
the afternoon. After some morning showers, we should see dry air
move back into the region. The result will be increasing sunshine
and drier air in the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the
mid 50s in the Arrowhead, to the 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The extended period will be dominated first by an upper level ridge,
then early in the week, by a split upper level flow, with the
northland on the northern side of this flow. But the northern flow
will be from Pacific origin so expect a mild, and warming period. By
midweek, the Northland will be in a southwest flow when an upper
level trough digs into the southwest U. S. and remains in that
general vicinity through the end of the week. While there will be a
few surface low pressure systems developing in response to the upper
low, they will not affect the Northland much at all, so it looks
like a dry period for the foreseeable futures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

An area of low pressure and cold front will move through the
Northland tonight into Saturday morning. Ceilings will lower
through the night into Saturday morning to low MVFR or IFR for
most areas and there will showers and a possible thunderstorm with
the low and front. The chance for showers/storms will be highest
over northern Minnesota and diminish to the east. The wind will
turn to north to northwest behind the front for a time then be
more north to northeast on Saturday.

There will be some low level wind shear in spots and we have it in
the KDLH TAF for a time tonight.


DLH  49  59  38  68 /  40  30  10   0
INL  42  61  35  71 /  80  40   0   0
BRD  50  62  41  70 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  52  68  39  70 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  49  63  36  67 /  20  30  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145.



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