Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 210800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
400 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

Quiet weather will continue in the short term. With sfc high pres
over northern Ontario, low-level e to ne winds are prevailing across
Upper MI. Temps at the base of the inversion were at -13 to -14C
earlier today, just cold enough to support some very light
shsn/flurries from the Keweenaw to nw Marquette county. A few
flurries are still lingering into the Keweenaw. However, under full
mid Mar sun, deepening well-mixed boundary layer upstream of Lake
Superior in northern Ontario is leading to erosion of the lake cloud
streamers over the eastern lake. This process will continue over the
next several hrs, bringing an end to the flurries. Will probably see
the stratocu clear out as well.

Fcst soundings show temps at the inversion base running 1-2C higher
tonight than early this morning. This will be sufficient to prevent
any -shsn/flurries from developing off the lake tonight. May not see
much in the way of stratocu either given the dryness of the upstream
air mass. A few shortwaves noted from IA into s central Canada are
currently generating some -sn off to the w. The northernmost
shortwave will approach the area Wed aftn. Given the dry low-level
air feeding into the area from the high pres to the n, expect this
-sn to dissipate before reaching the fcst area. While the -sn will
dissipate, looks like there will be considerable CI and high based
AS spread over the area with time. Expect mins in the single digits
and teens tonight. High clouds will begin to thin out from the w Wed
aftn. This should help temps rise well into the 30s in the interior.
Around 30F will be more common closer to Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

Quiet weather is expected to continue into the weekend under
persistent high pressure. Models indicate that shortwave impulses
lifting e-ne through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley could
slowly break down the ridge and allow for chances of light pcpn
late Mon into Tue.

Building 5h heights and confluent flow ahead of an advancing mid-
upper ridge from the west will yield more sunshine Thu and Fri as
temps push back toward normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s
north to lower 40s south.

Heading into the weekend, models now in good agreement showing
amplified ridge from Hudson Bay into the Western Great Lakes
suppressing next system well south moving through the Central Plains
and Ohio Valley on Saturday. Expect dry conditions through the
weekend although there will be some increase in cloud cover over the
western quarter of Upper Mi from this Plains system Fri night into
Saturday. E-NE flow circulating around the Hudson Bay high and
presence of some clouds will keep temps slightly blo normal on Sat
with highs generally in the 30s. Look for highs closer to normal by
Sunday under more sunshine and the sfc-850 mb flow shifting to the
SE allowing for some moderation in the airmass.

Models advertise some shortwave impulses moving e-ne through the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley region which could eventually break
down amplified ridge and bring some light pcpn to the area for the
early part of the next work week. GFS solution still appears to be
too aggressive displacing the mid-upper level ridge and bringing a
sfc trough into Upper Mi. Prefer ECMWF solution which shows a
slower, more gradual breakdown of the mid-upper ridge allowing a
weaker inverted sfc trough to move through the fcst area Mon night
into Tue.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

Expecting VFR conditions as dry low level air remains across the

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

High pressure will generally remain over northern Ontario thru the
remainder of this week. Winds will mostly be under 25kt thru the
period. Ligthest winds should be Wed night thru Thu night, mostly
under 15kt.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
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