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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KABQ 250925 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
325 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Windy to very windy conditions expected nearly areawide this
afternoon. Winds combined with very low humidity will lead to
critical fire weather conditions for much of northern and central
New Mexico. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist
through Saturday. Cooler temperatures prevail Saturday and
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the central
mountains and westward. Drier conditions take hold Sunday, save
for isolated activity in the northern mountains, and temperatures
will gradually warm up through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Low level moisture has surged back into eastern NM this morning with
dewpoints just shy of 60 degrees. A batch of low clouds has
developed across the northeast and additional low clouds and perhaps
patchy fog will also be possible across Curry and Roosevelt counties
later this morning.

An elongated upper level low pressure system over southern NV and
SoCal early this morning will lift northeastward over AZ today and
cross CO this evening. A potent dry slot evident on satellite
imagery is currently pushing into western NM and will continue to
spread across the state. Additionally, a strong mid level jet will
cross NM, with the strongest winds expected over eastern NM. With
mixing heights above 600mb today, much of the momentum aloft will
mix to the surface this afternoon with daytime heating. Previous
shifts had already issued a High Wind Warning a few Wind Advisories
across eastern NM. Have added a few more Wind Advisories west of the
High Wind Warning and also upgraded Quay County from an advisory to
a warning. Gusts between 50 and 60 mph will be common today east of
the Central Mountain Chain. Elsewhere, gusts between 35 and 45 mph
will be common. A Pacific cold front will race from west to east
today, and some of the strongest wind gusts will be possible along
the frontal boundary. With these strong winds, blowing dust will be
a concern, especially around Chaves County where drought continues
to plague the area.

Though the wind and dust will be the big concerns today, the storm
system will also bring some showers and thunderstorms to the
northwest third or so of the area, to include the northern
mountains. Wind gusts may be enhanced with any shower or
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Additionally, temperatures
will cool behind the aforementioned cold front, thus, late today and
especially overnight, 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible across
the highest peaks of the northern mountains. As the storm system
moves away from NM, strong winds will continue overnight at mid
levels. Models are indicating that a mountain wave will develop
which would result in gusty and erratic wind gusts along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and perhaps southward
toward Clines Corners and potentially as far east as I-25. Any
mountain wave activity would diminish by mid morning Friday.

Friday will feature breezy to windy conditions for most areas, but
not as strong as today. Temperatures will be cooler, especially
across eastern NM in the wake of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An upper low swinging down from the Great Basin will organize and
deepen Friday night as it pushes into NM. This will bring
isolated to scattered rain showers with a slight chance of thunder
through the night to northwestern NM, spreading in coverage to
the northern mts and RGV by Saturday afternoon. Placement of the
low will allow for strong winds to favor the southwest and south
central mts and their adjacent highlands, as well as the southeast
plains in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will prevail in the
wake of the low, with most locales seeing reductions of 5F to 10F
compared to Friday`s readings. The low is pulled north Saturday
night, leaving the eastern plains wanting for precip. A baggy
shortwave trough may offer some comfort to at least far northeast
NM Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, with isolated to
scattered showers, though little is expected in the arena of
appreciable rainfall. Temperatures begin to warmup Sunday,
starting a warming trend that will last through Tuesday. Dry
conditions, mostly sunny skies, and near to above average
temperatures prevail on Monday and Tuesday. Return flow increases
on Wednesday, priming the eastern plains for a round of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. While still quite a ways out,
ingredients look favorable for storms to have the potential to
become strong to potentially severe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

High clouds currently over central and eastern NM will continue to
slide eastward as dry air moves in from the southwest. Mountain
top winds will increase overnight, then strong winds will mix down
to the surface by late morning. Winds gusts in excess of 50kt will
be possible across much of eastern NM. BLDU may limit visibility,
especially around KROW. Gusts between 35 and 40kt will be common
west of the Central Mt Chain and an Airport Weather Warning will
be likely for KABQ Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, weak but moist
southeasterly flow at the surface across far eastern NM may aid in
the development of low clouds across the area overnight into
Thursday morning. As southwesterly winds mix down to the surface,
these low clouds will erode by mid to late morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across central
and eastern NM as well as the west central basin and range. A storm
system will cross the Four Corners area, steering a dry slot and
strong winds across much of NM. The strongest winds and lowest
humidity values will be across eastern NM where several hours of
single digit RH values are possible. The storm system will eject
northeastward but breezy to windy conditions will persist on Friday.
Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are once again possible
for all of eastern NM as well as the middle Rio Grande Valley
(particularly within Socorro County). Critical fire weather
conditions will also be possible for the east central plains on
Saturday as another storm system crosses the Four Corners region.
Both storm systems will bring showers and thunderstorms to
northwest third to half of the state. The second system will be
stronger and more moist, thus will have better potential to bring
some wetting precipitation. Critical fire weather conditions are
not expected for Monday through Wednesday with less wind in store.
However, it will remain dry with sub-15% humidity likely Monday
and Tuesday areawide, and across western and central NM on
Wednesday. Gulf moisture will return across eastern NM on
Wednesday, which will bring a better chance for thunderstorms by
the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  69  40  66  41 /  20  20  20  50
Dulce...........................  67  33  62  34 /  20  30  20  60
Cuba............................  65  34  63  34 /  30  20  10  40
Gallup..........................  62  34  63  33 /  20  20   5  40
El Morro........................  59  35  62  35 /  20  20   0  30
Grants..........................  65  35  66  33 /  20  20   0  30
Quemado.........................  62  33  65  35 /  20  10   0  20
Magdalena.......................  68  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  62  35  63  36 /  10  10   0  10
Reserve.........................  66  30  67  34 /  10   5   0  20
Glenwood........................  70  41  71  44 /   5   5   0  10
Chama...........................  62  31  57  31 /  30  30  20  50
Los Alamos......................  65  40  62  40 /  20  20   5  30
Pecos...........................  67  36  64  36 /  10  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  63  37  58  36 /  20  30   5  20
Red River.......................  60  31  55  29 /  30  30  10  20
Angel Fire......................  62  30  55  27 /  20  30   5  10
Taos............................  68  32  64  32 /  20  20   0  20
Mora............................  67  35  63  33 /  10  20   0  10
Espanola........................  73  40  70  41 /  10  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  68  39  65  40 /  10  20   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  71  38  69  39 /  10  10   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  46  70  47 /   5  10   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  73  45  72  45 /   5   5   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  75  43  74  45 /   5   5   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  74  44  73  45 /   5   5   0  10
Belen...........................  77  43  76  43 /   0   5   0   5
Bernalillo......................  75  44  73  45 /   5  10   0  20
Bosque Farms....................  76  42  74  43 /   5   5   0  10
Corrales........................  75  44  74  44 /   5   5   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  76  42  75  43 /   5   5   0  10
Placitas........................  71  44  69  45 /   5  10   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  74  44  72  45 /   5   5   0  20
Socorro.........................  79  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  40  63  41 /   5  10   0  10
Tijeras.........................  69  41  66  42 /   5  10   0  10
Edgewood........................  69  40  67  39 /   5  10   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  72  39  69  36 /   0   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  68  37  65  36 /   0   5   0   5
Mountainair.....................  69  40  67  40 /   0   5   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  70  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  74  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  67  40  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  39  69  37 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  76  37  71  36 /   0   5   0   5
Springer........................  76  39  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  70  39  67  37 /   0   5   0   5
Clayton.........................  81  46  76  44 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  43  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  46  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  86  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  87  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  46  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  76  43  71  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ223>229-231>234-237>240.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ212-215-220>222-230-235-236.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...34