437
FXUS63 KABR 121955
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
255 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue, along with daily relative
humidity values of 15-30%.

- A Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisories are in effect for portions
of central to northeastern SD and west central MN for strong winds
and elevated fire weather conditions.

- Wind gusts of 30-45 mph and open fields is causing patchy
to areas of blowing dust.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for west of the MO River Thursday as
winds increase out of the west to northwest.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50
mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Updated the Red Flag Warning earlier today to include the
Prairie Coteau, where relative humidity is now expected to be
slightly lower. Strong winds gusting 35-50mph remain east of the
Missouri River.

UPDATE Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

18z Aviation discussion has been updated below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A series of mainly dry systems moving through the area will keep
stronger winds in the forecast for much of the period.

Into early this evening relative humidity values will stay in the 20
to 30 percent range, with winds gusting 30 to 45 mph out of the
northwest. Wind Advisories remain for the Leola Hills east through
west central MN today, with blowing dust with visibilities down to
around a mile at times mentioned. There are a few small areas of
blowing dust across central to northeastern SD and western MN, with
the most dominant sinking southeast from Ransom and Sargent Counties
in ND to Marshall and Roberts Counties. The Red Flag Warnings
continue into the early evening hours east of the Missouri River.

We will have a brief break in the strong winds tonight through
midday Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure currently set up over
eastern SD and western SD moves overhead. Winds will increase out of
the south Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to near 40 mph west
of the Missouri River. Relative humidity values will fall into the
15 to 25 percent range Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect
Wednesday for portions of central South Dakota.

The strong winds will expand across northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday. We will continue to
highlight increasing (non-diurnal winds) Wednesday night, increasing
out of the southeast.

Winds out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph will shift out of a
westerly direction during the day Thursday. There is a 20 to 40
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. At
this time, limited precipitation is expected. Relative humidity will
still bottom out in the 10 to 30 percent range, lowest over central
South Dakota. Even on Friday, winds out of the west will gust 35 to
45 mph.

Added low (less than 20%) chances for showers Thursday morning on
the nose of the low level jet. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. Temperatures will rebound into the 80s Thursday. Blowing
dust will be possible again Thursday, but we also have a 20-40%
chance of showers. Little to no precipitation is currently forecast,
but any higher moisture will help keep dust/dirt a little more in
place. A wind shift during the day would be a concern for any
ongoing fire. Fire weather and wind headlines will likely be need
Thursday. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and overnight, though
some higher clouds might move in overnight for a little bit.
Stronger north northwest winds will continue into the evening with
sustained winds 15 to 25 kts and gusts of 25 to 35 kts and
potentially even up to 45 kts at KATY. The winds should decease this
evening and overnight into early Wednesday morning, where they will
shift to be from the west southwest. With the stronger winds, some
blowing dust has been kicking up over central and northeastern SD.
If the blowing dust lines up just right, KABR and KATY could
experience a slightly reduction in visibilities for a bit during the
afternoon. These chances for blowing dust will decrease as the winds
decrease.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ005>008.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>011-
     016>023-034>037-048-051.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-033-045.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12