Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200725
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
225 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Main concern initially this morning will be over our far eastern
counties, with a quicker exit of the sfc inversion and the potential
to mix into the 30-40kt winds from 925-850mb. Farther west, the sfc
inversion looks to remain in place a bit longer, limiting the
potential for the stronger winds that peak right around 12Z this
morning. 60kt winds will be around 750mb, with lighter winds sliding
overhead this afternoon as the sfc high stretching from Saskatchewan
through MT-WY-CO-western Dakotas moves directly overhead 18-21Z.

Temperatures will remain cool today, topping out in the mid 40s to
mid 50s, coolest west where 850mb temperatures stay in the -8 to -
10C range through early afternoon before moderating to around -2C by
00Z Sunday. The sfc high will be along the SD/MN/IA border by 00Z
Sunday, and exit into MO overnight as warm air advection takes hold.
Low level wind shear could become a concern overnight, with 35-45kt
winds just above the surface ahead of cold front moving in from the
western Dakotas. Did increase winds in the downslope/Sisseton Hills
area. This boundary will likely be over the northwestern corner of
the forecast area by daybreak Sunday. May need to increase lows
east of the Sisseton Hills a bit more than what is in the current
forecast.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Western conus ridge/rex block looks to continue into early next
week with continued dry conditions over the forecast area, and
temperatures near to above normal. Sunday should be the warmest day
of the entire period with a relatively mild airmass in place over
the region at that time. The long wave pattern starts to breakdown a
little by the latter part of next week, as energy over the western
conus moves into the Central Plains. At that time the models crank
out some light pcpn over the region, especially for Thursday and
again on Saturday. Overall, it appears that the pcpn type will favor
rain, as the airmass will be too mild for any snow. Temperatures for
the latter part of the forecast will favor normal to perhaps just a
tad above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise



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