-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
764
FXUS61 KAKQ 060753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
353 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will impact
the region this afternoon. Heavy rain also expected with localized
flooding possible.

- Hot and humid conditions today

A warm front has progressed N of the region early this morning as SW
flow sets up aloft. Showers and thunderstorms from yesterday have
diminished in strength and coverage, but a few lighter showers remain
over eastern portions of the area. These will continue to push east
through the morning. With ongoing WAA and thick cloud cover, temps
remain mild this morning with latest obs reflecting mid-upper 60s.
Saturation and little to no wind in the piedmont have allowed for fog
formation, but obs do not indicate widespread dense fog yet
(i.e. vis < 1/4 mile). Will continue to monitor and issue
advisories as needed.

A strong shortwave will move through the area today, leading to
formation of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Continued
south-southwesterly flow at the surface will bring warm temps
and plentiful moisture. Despite cloudy conditions, temps will
rise to the low 80s E of I-95 and upper 70s to the W and on the
Eastern Shore by the early afternoon with dewpoints in the mid-
upper 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected impact the FA
starting early to mid afternoon. Highest coverage will likely be
in the SW half of the FA to start, then showers/storms press NE
through the evening and into tonight. Given the moisture
profile (PWATs around 1.5"), heavy rain is definitely within
reason. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2"
of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a
marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay). There will be no
short supply of instability today with mean HREF MLCAPE
indicating widespread 1100+ J/Kg. Thus, a few storms may become
strong to severe. However, a lack of shear and meager mid- level
lapse rates will limit the threat to damaging winds. The area
with the best chance for stronger storms will be in the SE and
the peninsulas where instability will be higher and low-level
lapse rates look to approach 8.5 C/km. Showers/storms taper off
after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern
Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues through the mid-week period with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms

- Will likely have daily chances for strong to severe storms Tues-
Thurs

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee
trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tues/Wed. These
will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances
in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warm conditions are
expected with highs generally in the low-mid 80s on Tues and upper
80s to around 90 on Wed. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure
presence of instability. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the
region on Tues, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does
look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The
SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tues. The
flow aloft then turns back to the SW Wed and strengthens, which will
allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk
on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thurs as flow
aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front,
(quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While
there is still some uncertainty, Thurs has the potential for the
highest coverage of severe storms this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front and upper trough will push across the region Fri
through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms.
Temps will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid-upper 70s. The
weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight
chance of afternoon showers in the forecast for now. Dry air also
means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Temps
will be much cooler this weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s Sat
and low-mid 70s on Sun.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Shower activity continues to continues to decrease in coverage
and intensity. However, light showers will continue to be
possible through the rest of tonight and into the early morning
(along the coast) at all terminals. BKN/OVC sky cover lingers
through Mon night with CIGs initially VFR/MVFR (intermittent IFR
at RIC). CIGs gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR from W
to E through the rest of the night with IFR CIGs at SBY/RIC/PHF
likely before sunrise. RIC is starting to see some IFR CIGs
already, but SBY and ORF should hold off until ~8-10z. CIGs
improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR Mon afternoon.
Additionally, given the rain today, patchy to widespread fog is
expected to develop inland early this morning with IFR/MVFR
VIS. The lowest VIS is expected to be across the Piedmont,
however, it may reach as far as RIC. Any fog quickly lifts by
Mon morning. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are
likely Mon afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light
and variable overnight (S/SE), becoming SW/SSW 5-10 kt Mon
(highest along the coast).

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through
Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Sfc high pressure (~1025mb) is centered well off the coast of
New England/ SE of Nova Scotia early this morning with
yesterday`s frontal boundary now N of the local waters. The
wind is from the S at 10-15 kt, with seas are ~3 ft, and waves
1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, a summerlike pattern will
prevail through Wed, with a SSE to SW wind averaging ~10 kt
with gusts less than 20 kt so outside of any tstms, conditions
will be sub- SCA. SW winds look to increase a bit Thursday in
advance of an approaching cold front, and could reach SCA by
Friday/Friday night as winds turn NW behind the front as some
CAA spreads over the region. The models still differ quite a bit
with timing and the position/evolution of the storm track Fri
into Sat so the forecast remains uncertain during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 6 AM this
  morning for Dorchester/Wicomico as the high tide cycle
  lingers. Elsewhere, all other Coastal Flood Advisories have
  been discontinued.

SSE winds and a higher astronomical tide last evening/early
this morning has allowed low-end minor flooding to be realized
at Lewisetta, Crisfield, Bishop`s Head, and Cambridge. As for
currents at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay over the next 24
hrs, it will generally be neutral or slightly favoring ebbing
per CBOFS output and latest obs. As such, expect tidal
departures to drop off by a few tenths of a foot across the
mid/upper Bay with no additional flooding later today (aside
from localized nuisance flooding). Some nuisance to localized
low- end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible
with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning
and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high
tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the
way of low-end minor flooding (mainly due to astronomical tides
climbing slightly by late this week).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021-022.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM/RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...