Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170215 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1015 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves east across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday, then off the coast Saturday night. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, then moves offshore Monday. A complex area of low pressure moves across the region Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Another dry/cool eve continuing overnight as sfc hi pres shifts a bit SE of the local area. SCT CI now...but expecting some increasing/lowering of CIGS (esp W) by late tonight as the next lo pres approaches from the W. Lows in the m-u20s inland...l30s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models show two separate s/w`s that track across the region Sat. First impulse tracks across the nrn half of the fa (ivof of I64) during the late morning and aftrn hrs with the second wave tracking across swrn VA Sat aftrn then across ern NC Sat nite. Although there is plenty of moisture noted at various levels, only weak lift is progged with the first impulse so that QPF amounts will be minimal. Thus dropped pops back to chc most areas except low end likely in the aftrn closer to the coast. Just don`t see it raining at any one site the whole day. Models are also a bit slower to spread moisture across the area early Sat, so think any p-type issues will be confined to the nwrn most zones (Louisa/Fluvanna as rain possible mixes with some sleet ot the onset btwn 12Z-15Z). Otw, shwrs will be the main pcpn type with highs 45-50 north, in the 50s south. Shwrs taper off across the north Sat eve but cont across the south thru most of the night as the second impulse tracks south across NC. Expect pcpn to end across the north before any p-type issues arise. Lows 30-34 north, mid-upr 30s south. High pres builds into the area from the nw Sun then over the area Sun night. Dry with mstly sunny skies north, pt sunny south. H85 temps support high near 60 across the Piedmont, 50s along the coast. Mstly clr Sun evening with incrg clouds across the Piedmont aftr midnight. Lows in the low-mid 30s. Models slower for pcpn to arrive Mon as the next system apprchs from the wsw. Thus, incrg clouds most areas. Mstly cldy with chc pops across the srn and wrn zones aftr 18Z. Highs 50-55, mid-upr 40s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z models starting to come together on a solution with the mid week system. Mid west low weakens as it tracks across the KY/TN valley Tues transferring its energy to a new low developing off the Mid Atlantic coast Tues night then slowly drifting ne Wed and Thurs. GFS warmer thus supports mostly rain across the local area with the ECMWF a bit colder which would support pcpn mixing with or briefly changing over to wet snow across the north before ending Wed night. Forecast wise, will have chc to likely pops (rain) overspreading the area Mon night. Lows upr 30s north to mid 40s south. Likely to categorical pops Wed (rain). Temps tricky and will all depend on just how fast the coastal low develops. In-situ damming keeps temps 40-45 across the north, to near 60 near the Albemarle Sound. Chc to likely pops Tues night (mainly rain but did add chc snow to nwr third of fa after midnite). Lows in the lwr 30s north to lwr 40s se. Chc to low end likely pops Wed as Upr level energy crosses the area. Highs 40 nw to near 50 se. Rain/wet snow mix or a brief changeover to wet snow across the north Wed night before ending. Lows upr 20s-mid 30s. Dry Thurs and Fri as high prs builds in behind the system. Remaining below normal with highs Thurs in the 40s. Lows upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Fri mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Satellite imagery showing mostly SKC across the region with a few high clouds extending across the Mid Atlantic from the west. Sfc high pressure will quickly transit the region during the overnight and give way to a couple of low pressure systems moving from the Midwest to the NC/VA coasts. The systems will bring mid level clouds that will overspread the region Sat morning into the afternoon/evening and also bring rain to the area by late morning into early afternoon. The rain will most likely affect all the TAF sites from late afternoon into Sat night. A brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be possible during the overnight. Outlook: Gradual clearing from north to south, with VFR conditions Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Another window of flight restrictions by Mon/Tue, as Low pressure approaches from the SW. && .MARINE... A weak boundary has settled south of the waters this afternoon with breezy northwest winds in its wake. Current observations show NW winds of 20 to 25 knots over roughly the northern two thirds of the waters. A few wind gusts to 35 knots will remain possible early this evening, especially at elevated sites. SCAs remain in effect until 7 pm for areas north of Cape Henry where the strongest winds are occuring. SCAs may potentially need to be extended a bit later into the evening depending on how quickly the winds diminish. Winds diminish through the evening and overnight as high pressure briefly settles into the area with NW winds around 10 knots becoming light and variable late Saturday. A weak low pressure system passes through North Carolina late Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure remains entrenched across the Great Lakes and Northeast allowing for winds NNE winds at or below 15 knots through Sunday. Winds become light and variable on Monday. The next system impacts the area Tuesday/Wednesday and another round of SCAs will likely be needed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...AJB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.