Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 240824 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 424 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will move across our region this morning with isolated to scattered showers especially from the Capital Region north and west. An upper level disturbance and a cold front will pass through this afternoon into the early evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather is expected on Monday, as the fair weather continues into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 424 AM EDT...A weak sfc cyclone and its associated occluded front is moving across upstate NY this morning with the better synoptic forcing with the sfc wave and upper low over northern NY and northwest of the Capital Region, where the showers have been most persistent. Low stratus, patchy fog, and some spotty light showers or drizzle will continue this morning especially from Albany north and west. The main question today will be if any bonafide clearing occurs ahead of a cold front moving towards the St Lawrence River Valley, and short-wave trough approaching from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region. The low stratus will take its time burning off. The best chance for some clearing looks like it will be south of the Capital Region over the mid Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, southern Taconics, Berkshires, and NW CT. The sfc dewpoints increase into the upper 50s to mid 60s with some upper 60s possible over the southeast extreme of the forecast area. A quick check of the GFS/NAM shows moderate instability in these southern areas, but with sfc dewpts in the lower 70s. We do not think the air mass will be that moist, but nonetheless sfc dewpts in the mid/upper 60s with some heating should allow for SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets in the south in excess of 1000 J/kg. The 0-6 km bulk shear will generally be 30-40 kts with individual discrete cell formation possible, but liking organizing into cluster or small lines in the late pm into the early evening. The PWATS will be in the 1.5-1.75" range, as these values are 1-2 STD DEVs above normal based on the latest GEFS. The mid- level lapse rates per the GFS/NAM are very weak at less than 6C/km. Some organized convection is likely but the lack of abundant CAPE should limit the updrafts from being tall enough for a severe threat. There could be a rogue/isolated severe. We will separate out the counties south of the Capital Region, and the Berkshires in the HWO to mention some gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. We are less confident for much clearing in the northern two thirds of the forecast area. There could still be isolated to scattered thunderstorms with small amounts of instability ahead of the front. The latest CAMS such as the 3-km HRRR, 3-km NAMnest, and WRF-ARW all show some stronger REF cores especially in the southern portion of the forecast area between 21Z to-03Z. We have POPS generally likely in the late morning through the afternoon with an isolated to scattered threat for thunderstorms. Max temps will be closer to late June normals especially south and east of the Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills with mid 70s to lower 80s. Expect mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns, including the southern Greens. It will be humid today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Tonight...the coverage of the showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms should be fairly widespread early this evening with the short-wave pivoting through and the cold front making steady progress south of the region. The total rainfall amounts may range from a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch with some locally higher amounts. The longwave trough axis amplifies and the shower coverage should dramatically decrease per the latest ECMWF/GFS. An initial surge of cold advection will be passing through the forecast area, but a better one will come with the upper trough axis Monday mid to late morning. Temps will drop back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Monday...The guidance continues to trend drier here with the better synoptic forcing with the upper low down stream of the forecast area. The axis of steeper mid level lapse rates with the cold pool with the upper low slides east over central and northern New England. We kept a few instability showers over southern VT, but trended the rest of the area drier. In the cold advection, H850 temps fall to +7C to +11C from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with some instability cumulus over or near the higher terrain, as it will become breezy too with north to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. High temps will be a tad below normal with mid and upper 70s in many of the valley areas, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the hills and mountains. Humidity levels will be very comfortable. Monday night...The winds quickly abate, as a Canadian anticyclone /1025 hPa/ ridges in over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast with clear skies and calm winds. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will set up with some patchy fog along and over the major river valleys. We went close to the cooler MAVMOS mins with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, and a few upper 30s are possible in the southern Dacks. Tuesday...High pressure will dominate and then slowly slide offshore during the afternoon. Mid and upper level heights will increase over the region. The strong subsidence from the high will yield mostly sunny conditions with temps near normal with widespread 70s and few upper 60s over the higher terrain.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term period will feature a chance of showers and thunderstorms mid-week followed by anomalously hot temperatures for the weekend. Tuesday night into Wednesday will serve as a transition day as high pressure shifts off the coast and a robust low pressure system progresses towards the region. Ahead of this low, showers may spread into the region from the west as early as Wednesday afternoon. However, it looks like the best forcing and chances for widespread precipitation will arrive late Wednesday/Wednesday night. The surface cold front associated with this system doesn`t look like it will pass through the forecast area until early Thursday morning, which will limit the available instability for thunderstorms. That being said, maintained a slight chance of thunder in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon/night with a chance early Thursday morning with the passage of the front. Shower activity should gradually exit the region Thursday afternoon/evening as the low pressure system lifts further into New England. Ridging/high pressure builds in behind the departing low Friday into Saturday, with anomalously high H500 heights. Deterministic, blended, and MOS guidance all suggest a prolonged period of well above average temperatures heading into the weekend. Starting Friday it looks like we will have multiple days of high temperatures above 90F with dew points in the 60s around the region. Sunday may be the warmest day of the period with latest GEFS showing 925 mb temps +2 to +3 S.D., which could result in high temps soaring into the upper 90s. Trends will have to be watched for potential heat headlines.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shower activity continues mainly across the Adirondacks early this morning. Further south, shower activity has waned, resulting in localized areas of fog/BR across some of the TAF sites. This has led to MVFR to low end IFR conditions, with LIFR fog at KPSF. These reduced flying conditions will likely continue through at least 13Z this morning. Light and variable winds are expected through the morning as well. A frontal system approaches later today with additional showers along the diffuse frontal boundary. Will include a prob30 for isolated thunderstorms possible after 17z. Generally MVFR conditions should prevail. Winds are expected to remain relatively light across the region, generally below 10 kt. Winds will slowly veer throughout the day as the front sags south across the region. Outlook... Monday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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An upper level disturbance and a cold front will bring unsettled weather to eastern NY and western New England with showers and scattered thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight, as cooler and drier weather returns Monday, and continues into Tuesday as high pressure builds in. The minimum RH values will be high this afternoon in the humid air mass with showers likely and scattered thunderstorms with values of 55 to 85 percent. The maximum RH values will be 90 to 100 percent tonight, and then lower to 35 to 50 percent by Monday afternoon. The winds will be south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph this morning, and then veer to the southwest to west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph late this afternoon into tonight. The winds will further shift to the north and northwest on Monday at 10 to 20 mph. An additional wetting rainfall of a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch is possible today into tonight.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydro problems are expected into late next week on the main stem rivers. Most of the entire Hydro Service Area /HSA/ is under abnormally dry conditions according to the latest US Drought Monitor released last week. As a low pressure system, cold front, and upper level low move across the HSA there will be additional periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms into this evening. Basin average rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch, though locally higher amounts are possible with any thunderstorms. Minimal rises are expected on the waterways. Dry weather returns Monday into early Wednesday before another cold front moves across the region late Wednesday into Thursday with some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...VTK/JVM FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula

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