Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251329 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 929 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure building east off the Atlantic coast will bring very warm conditions in our region today and Saturday, with increasing amounts of humidity. Some showers or thunderstorms are possible over the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... For today...It will be sunny with a west to southwest wind, becoming gusty this afternoon. There may be a few high clouds from time to time. This will promote very good mixing and with boundary layer temperatures warming from the west, highs today should be above guidance. Highs well into the 80s but near 90 mid Hudson Valley and around 80 to lower 80s higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weak cold front begins to approach from the north through the night and there could be an isolated shower in far northern areas by daybreak. Otherwise, light south winds could persist in parts of the Hudson Valley including the Capital District, which could prevent temperatures from falling as much as they could. Other areas will trend to light or near calm winds. Lows mainly in the lower 60s but some 50s northern areas. On Saturday, the weak cold front drops south through the day but the leading edge of the convergence on the leading edge of the cold front should hold off until the afternoon from the Mohawk Valley and southern VT and points south. So, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in northern areas later in the morning, then build south and east through the afternoon and evening. Instability looks to be considerable but mostly surface based and midlevel lapse rates are not very steep. Boundary layer winds weaken and mean shear weaken through the day. The low level temperature and moisture gradients along the front are not too extreme. Thunderstorms could be strong but mainly look to be sub severe at this time. There should be more sun than clouds most of the day along and south of the Mohawk Valley and southern VT but more clouds tan sun in northern areas. Winds will be lighter but still from the west and southwest ahead of the cold front. So, highs Saturday again well in the 80s but upper 70s northern areas. The weak cold front becomes nearly stationary from the western Mohawk Valley, southward through the Mid Hudson Valley and offshore Long Island. Surface winds will be southeast to south over our region by later Saturday night but boundary layer winds remain light south to southwest through Sunday. There is considerable uncertainty as to how far west the weak front becomes stationary, as the western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills could be noticeably warmer and have some breaks in the clouds, on the warm side of the front. Additional scattered showers are possible Sunday, with some isolated thunder in the western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills. Onshore surface winds and more clouds than sun will result in highs Sunday in the 60s to around 70, but lower to mid 70s in western areas potentially just on the warm side of the old front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It appears we will still be dealing with possible showers on the last day of the Memorial Day holiday weekend Monday. Models indicating a surface trough moving across the region mainly during the afternoon hours with a northwest flow aloft. The GFS is indicating increasing instability, especially across the northwest half of the area, so will mention possible thunderstorms as well. There will be residual low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s, so it will feel somewhat humid as well. Development of low-level stratus clouds could limit surface heating and duration may be tricky in terms of the temperature forecast. Until there is higher confidence in cloud cover, will mention high temps in the lower to mid 70s for much of the region. Chances for showers will decrease Monday evening, as the trough passes through. Another front is then forecast to push through overnight (more like a dewpoint boundary), which will allow for lower humidity levels to build in for Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday due to increasing sunshine as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. As the surface anticyclone becomes established along the New England coast Wednesday into Thursday, it will provide continued dry and warm conditions due to a prevailing light southerly flow around the periphery of the anticyclone. Will have to watch for possible low-level stratus clouds each morning, but otherwise plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures will prevail. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected to prevail at the KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF terminals through the 24 hour TAF period ending 12Z Saturday, with mainly just some passing high level cirrus clouds. SCT mid level clouds are expected to develop at KGFL tonight as a disturbance moves across far northern NY. Winds today will become west-southwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt becoming common during the afternoon as mixing potential increases. Winds speeds will decrease to less than 10 kt after sunset. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty west to southwest winds up to 30 mph expected this afternoon... As high pressure building east off the Atlantic coast will bring very warm conditions in our region today and Saturday, with increasing amounts of humidity. Some showers or thunderstorms are possible over the holiday weekend. RH values this afternoon are expected to range between 30 and 40 percent. RH values increase to 70 to 100 percent. RH values drop to 40 to 55 percent Saturday. Light winds this morning will become west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds diminish to 15 mph or less tonight. West to southwest winds around 15 mph Saturday become southeast at 15 mph or less late Saturday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next few days. Dry weather is expected to continue through tonight with high pressure in control. As a result, rivers, streams, lakes, ponds, reservoirs, brooks, creeks and kills will remain fairly steady over the next few days. Our next chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be over the holiday weekend. Northern and central areas will have the best chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday, with better chances across the remainder of the area for Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable due to thunderstorm activity and some locations may stay completely dry. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...11/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.