Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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332 FXUS61 KALY 172031 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 431 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the local area tonight ushering in a cooler and much less humid airmass. Fair weather is then expected into the weekend as high pressure builds in and moves across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Despite high CAPE values weak shear and weak mid level lapse rates have kept storms from getting well organized. The cold front is on the approach with winds shifting to the west and dew points dropping. Dew points are down into the 50s across western New York State. A drier and cooler airmass Will be ushered in with the passage of the cold front. The threat of convection will continue across the local area into early evening and the front moves eastward away from the area. Temperatures expected to bottom out in the 50s late tonight with lower 60s in portions of the Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Ridging will be building in at the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere Wednesday while the upper trough continues to swing through. Aloft heights will begin to rise Wednesday night with ridging building in aloft Thursday. Expecting fair weather with abundant sunshine with some late night and early morning radiational fog. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels with warmer readings Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging will be in control of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend with guidance developing a stacked low pressure system across the northern Plains/upper mid west. Fair weather is expected into through Saturday. Both Friday and Saturday are expected to feature above normal temperatures with mid to upper 80s on the valleys with 70s limted to above 1500 feet. Humidity levels are forecast remain comfortable with dew points expected to be in the 50s. The ridge is expected to shift out over the western Atlantic as the stacked system fills and broadens to our west. Guidance is showing agreement a short wave rotating about the trough and moving up the east coast inducing a surface low over the weekend and bringing chances for widespread rainfall to the local area for the latter part of the weekend. Sunday will be cooler due to clouds and expected rain with dew points rising into the 60s. The upper low is expected to open leaving a trough with its axis to our west which leaves the local area favorable for continued chances for precipitation so have chances pops into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There could be some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Latest radar scan shows isolated rain showers and thunderstorms mainly over higher terrain. South to southwest winds will be around 5 to 10 kts today through tonight. VCTS in TAFs as showers look to remain isolated. Threat for thunder diminishes this evening except at KGFL which could see some showers and an isolated thunderstorm overnight and a brief reduction to MVFR/IFR with any shower. Broken clouds at various levels increase overnight with approach of cold front. Mainly rain showers ahead of the cold front during the morning hours Tuesday with the threat of thunder increasing as daytime heating increases. Winds Tuesday morning south to southwest at 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move east of the local area tonight ushering in a cooler and much less humid airmass. Fair weather is then expected into the weekend as high pressure builds in and moves across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Most of area received needed rainfall with some areas south and east of the Capital District receiving heavy rains. Dry weather is expected for late tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds in and moves across the region. Unsettled weather is then expected as an upper level low/trough forecast to develop to our east placing the region in a favorable area for rains. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.