Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 061737 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1237 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low over eastern Canada will continue to funnel colder than normal temperatures over the Northeast this weekend. Another upper level disturbance will bring a few snow showers and flurries today. High pressure will build in Sunday into Monday with sunny and dry weather with temperatures moderating to above normal levels into the mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early afternoon water vapor shows a cold upper trough encompassing the greater Northeast. 12Z KALY sounding showed moisture trapped beneath an inversion with low level flow off Lake Ontario continuing the moisture feed. As a result, mostly cloudy conditions are expected to persist the rest of the day, with the exception of parts of western New England especially downstream of the higher terrain. So far, low level wind trajectories have favored light lake effect snow showers remaining west of the forecast area. A few stray snow showers could edge into the western Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, Schoharie County, and eastern Catskills, as well as along the Green Mountain crest this evening with minimal accumulation expected. 850 mb temp measured at -18C on the 12Z KALY sounding is near the daily minimum running average on the SPC climo, indicative of the cold airmass. Adding in the cloud cover, high temps are coming up around 15F short of normal. Tonight, a shortwave trough diving southward from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will reinforce the longwave trough over the Northeast. Low level winds veering a bit may result in clouds clearing especially in the valleys. Any lingering light snow showers should shift back west of our area after 06Z. Another chilly night expected with lows in the single digits to upper teens, 5-10F below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday...Fair and dry weather will close the weekend with a 1030 hPa arctic sfc anticyclone ridging in from the Great Lakes Region over NY and New England. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies from the subsidence due to the ridge. Highs will still run about 10 degrees below normal. The winds will be light at 5-15 mph. Expect highs still in the teens to lower 20s over the southern Greens and southern Dacks and 20s to lower 30s over the rest of the region, except for some mid 30s near KPOU. Sunday night into Monday....High pressure builds in over the NY and New England and the Mid Atlantic States with clear skies and light to calm winds Sunday Night. Ideal radiational cooling is expected with another cold early March night with lows zero to 5 below over the southern Dacks and southern Greens, and single digits over the rest of the region, except lower teens in the Capital District, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Mid and upper level heights begin to rise on Monday, as high pressure remains near the lower to mid Atlantic Coast. Some clouds will in increase from north and west with a warm front and a short-wave late in the day. Low and mid level warm advection will increase into the night time period. Highs creep close to normal levels with mid 30s to lower 40s in the valley locations, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long-term forecast period will feature tranquil weather conditions for the first half of the period before wet weather arrives during the second half of the period. The temperature pattern will remain changeable initially trending warmer through midweek before trending colder by the end week into the weekend. We start off the long-term period Monday night with a large surface high pressure centered to our southeast. A nearby shortwave passing to our north could bring parts of our northwestern zones a chance for light snow showers/flurries Monday evening/night. Right now the greatest confidence is over northern Herkimer county. The remainder of the area will be dry as the aforementioned surface high yields plenty of subsidence. Dray and tranquil weather will persist through the day on Wednesday. A storm system over the central U.S. will lift northeastward into Canada Wednesday-Wednesday night. Clouds will be on the increase along with an uptick in temperature and moisture advection Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast during the day on Thursday. Rain could mix with snow or transition over to all snow Thursday night into Friday over the SW Adirondacks. Rain or a rain/snow mix should come to an end later in the day on Friday. Should things linger a little longer, rain could transition over to a rain/snow mix over much of the area should Friday night into Saturday. Uncertainty exist in precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday. The Canadian and European deterministic models are signaling the potential for a mid to upper level shortwave associated with a surface storm system to track southeastward out of Canada bringing snow or rain/snow showers to the region. The GFS solution keeps things dry. Being this far out in time, have only include 20% chance PoPs during this time period. Stay tuned for updates regarding this. Temperatures will be on the increase through Thursday before turning cooler Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will go from the 50s on Tuesday to the 60s Wednesday and Thursday to the 50s on Friday and the 40s on Saturday. Low temperatures will start off in the 20s/30s Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, increase into the 40s and 50s Wednesday and Thursday night, and decrease back into the 20s/30s Friday and Saturday nights. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR ceilings in place as of the 18 UTC update but persistent westerly flow has overspread additional stratocumulus clouds into central NY which will continue advancing eastward this afternoon. Ceilings under these clouds are low end VFR in the 3-4kft range so VFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon at our TAF sites, despite increasing cloud coverage. The only exception may be PSF where westerly flow upsloping the terrain may result in slightly lower ceilings and a small window of opportunity for MVFR ceilings, mainly 18 UTC to 00 UTC. Did not have enough confidence to introduce a TEMPO group at this time but decided to show SCT025 ceilings at PSF during this time window to eluded to the potential for brief MVFR conditions. After 00 UTC, gradually clearing should ensue as winds shift to the west-northwest and advect in a drier air mass. VFR ceilings should persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Westerly winds this afternoon should remain a bit breezy sustained between 8 and 15kts with gusts to 20kts. Winds should weaken after 22 - 00 UTC this evening with sustained winds staying around 5kts. In addition, winds should shift to the west-northwest by 00 UTC. Winds should increase again around 15 UTC/Sun becoming sustained between 5 and 10 kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid week. Cold and mainly dry weather will persist this weekend into Monday with little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in snowpack will be through sublimation. Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week. Some river and streams may show a diurnal fluctuation in flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid week. However, widespread ice break-up or hydro issues are not anticipated at this time at least through the mid week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Thompson SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Wasula

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