Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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000
FXUS61 KALY 190745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Although a few breaks are possible, skies will continue
to remain mostly cloudy again today. An approaching frontal
boundary will return some more rain showers to the region for this
afternoon into this evening. Behind the front, breezy conditions
are expected for Saturday, with a partly sunny afternoon and
temperatures running a little below normal. It will remain dry for
Sunday into Monday with a mostly clear sky, but temperatures will
continue to be a little below average for late April.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 345 AM EDT...The combination of surface high pressure
over Atlantic Canada and a weak storm system located off the
mid- Atlantic coast continues to allow for the low level flow
out of the east to southeast. This onshore flow is keeping
plenty of low level moisture in place, where is trapped beneath
an inversion around 900 hpa. IR satellite imagery and surface
observations continue to show fairly widespread stratus clouds
over the region. While there had been some light showers and
drizzle earlier in the overnight, this has ended, as forcing is
fairly weak over the area, thanks to the weak coastal system
continuing to move further away.
Through the morning hours, will expect skies to remain cloudy
with the flow becoming southerly across the area. There could
be an opportunity for a few breaks by the late morning or early
afternoon hours, mainly for far southern areas or parts of
western New England, although most areas will continue to remain
fairly overcast. Temps will be a little warmer than yesterday
thanks to the southerly flow and slightly milder temps aloft, so
highs should reach the mid to upper 50s in most areas.
Another frontal boundary will be approaching from the west for
late in the day. CAMs suggest that a broken line of light rain
showers will be moving across the area from west to east for the
late afternoon or early evening hours, with the highest coverage
of showers probably for western and northern areas. Any precip
looks fairly light and brief.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As the surface cold front slowly moves across the area, some
additional showers are expected for this evening into tonight.
There are some differences in the models regarding just steady
any precip will be, so will generally have POPs in the chance
range through the overnight hours, with POPs starting to wind
down west to east by the late night hours. Overnight temps will
be falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas (some
mid 30s in the highest terrain). Some clearing may finally occur
by the late night hours for far northwestern areas.
On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the
morning hours, as the frontal boundary continues to push away.
However, skies won`t be clearing out completely, as the upper
level trough overhead will still be allowing for some clouds,
especially by afternoon hours, as the cooling temps aloft and
cyclonic flow promote the development of cu/stratocu. While
most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few pop-up showers or
sprinkles can`t be ruled out by Saturday afternoon, mainly
northern and high terrain areas, although the best chance will
likely be west of the forecast area. Any precip on Saturday
looks very brief. Temps will be a little below normal thanks to
the upper level cold pool in place, with temps only in the 50s
for most areas. With the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and
breezy by Saturday afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting
up to 30 mph. It will remain a little breezy into Saturday
night with some lingering clouds. Temps will fall into the 30s,
although it should be dry with no precip across the area.
Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday
night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the
Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain
north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be
passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but this moisture-starved front won`t be producing any precip
for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday
into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. Temps on
Sunday will be in the 50s (40s for the high terrain) with upper
20s to mid 30s on Sunday night. It will be breezy once again on
Sunday, especially during the time of peak heating, with some
gusts in the afternoon and early evening up to about 30 mph or
so.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak, dry cold front will exit early on Monday as high pressure
builds in for the rest of the day. This will lead to a mostly sunny
and breezy start to the week with highs in the 40s and 50s, slightly
below normal. A mostly clear and cool night is expected Monday night
with lows in the 20s and 30s.
The high will push off to the east on Tuesday as southerly return
flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on Tuesday will
rebound into the 50s and 60s. Clouds will increase and thicken later
in the day as an upper-level trough and low pressure system approach
from the west. There is some timing and track differences with our
next system but shower chances look to increase spanning Tuesday
night and Wednesday and we maintained likely pops for those time
periods. If the cold front crosses during the time of peak heating
on Wednesday, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Enough
cold air may advance behind the cold front that some snowflakes
could mix in across higher elevations before precipitation tapers
off later Wednesday or Wednesday night. An upper-level disturbance
may linger over the region into Thursday; otherwise, drier weather
would return with high pressure building back in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06z/Sat...High pressure will be located off the New
England coast through the day Friday. Thereafter, a cold front
will cross the region from west to east Friday evening.
Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the overnight and
through much of the day Friday. Generally high end MVFR and/or low
end VFR cigs are expected up to around 00z/Sat. Ceilings will lower
into at least the MVFR range around or shortly after 00z/Sat along
with some scattered rain showers, which could bring mixed MVFR/VFR
vsbys.
Wind will be light to calm or out of the southeast at around 5 kt
through the overnight then pick up from the south to southeast at 10-
15 kt with some gusts over 20 kt on Friday. Wind will remain south
to southeasterly around 10 kt Friday evening but with fewer gusts.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun