Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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646
FXUS65 KBOU 252103
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Clear skies and light winds will give way to a fast moving cold
front later tonight with gusty winds and a slight chance of
showers into Thursday morning. The front is pushing quickly south
through Montana this afternoon, and will reach the northern border
toward midnight and is still on track to push through Denver 2-3
AM. Gusty north winds will develop behind the front, and continue
across the plains through most of Thursday before relaxing. Should
see peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph most of this time east of I-25.
Then winds gradually drop off late in the day Thursday as gradient
and mixing relax.

With regard to precipitation chances, there are a few radar echoes
beginning to show up across Montana, but low level moisture is
quite limited. That said, there is a chance of shallow
anticyclonic upslope into the Front Range so with the northerly
flow will mention some showers from the Front Range Mountains and
Foothills east/southeast across Denver and the Palmer Divide
Thursday morning. Don`t think this would be much more than a few
sprinkles/flurries given the limited moisture profiles, with
perhaps a dusting of snow in the foothills/Palmer Divide.
Temperatures will be cooler, but some return of sunshine later in
the day should help readings push back into the upper 50s across
the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Sharp upper level ridge will pop up across the Great Basin
Thursday night and then pass across the state Saturday and
Saturday night. This will bring warming temperatures through this
period. By Saturday, enough moisture is forecast to build under
the ridge to bring a chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest (scattered) coverage in/near the
mountains.

By Sunday, there are signs that a weak ejecting short wave will
take most of the moisture with it, and continued downslope will
bring even warmer temperatures with highs expected to crack the
80F degree mark on the plains. I`m quite unsure whether or not
there would be enough moisture around to bring a chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but this pattern would favor the eastern
plains if anyone were to see storms on Sunday. Fire danger may
increase in areas that haven`t seen much recent precipitation or
green-up, namely Lincoln county.

For Monday into Wednesday, models are indicating a deep but slow
moving upper level trough to carve out over the southwestern U.S.
This pattern would favor a return of cooler and unsettled weather.
Until more certainty develops with regard to the exact pattern
evolution, we will keep a chance of showers and storms in the
forecast through the first half of next week, along with
temperatures averaging a little cooler than climatological norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through 06Z tonight, with light winds
turning back to normal south/southwest winds around 8-14 knots
02Z-06Z. Cold front is expected to arrive by 09Z with a shift to
gusty north winds 15-20 knots with gusts around 30 knots for a
couple hours. Then should see a slight weakening to 15G25 knots
through most of Thursday. Then winds turn more easterly and
gradually weaken Thursday evening.

Low level moisture is lacking behind the front but could still see
near MVFR ceilings develop toward 12Z and hold through about 18Z
before gradually lifting and breaking Thursday afternoon. There`s
just a slight chance of passing sprinkle/flurry 12Z-16Z Thursday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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