-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
565
FXUS61 KBOX 270017
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
817 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering rain will move out of the region, and a cold front
then ushers in a much cooler airmass tonight. Cloudy, cool, and
blustery conditions on Sunday. High pressure returns with dry
conditions for Monday and Tuesday, along with mild to warm
temperatures. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday
with a few showers possible late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Seasonable temperatures to end the week with
the next chance for rain by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Key Messages:

* Drying out with dropping temperatures and gusty winds with
  frontal passage tonight

Updated rainfall chances through this evening using timing from
the last few runs of the HRRR. Expecting most of southern New
England to be dry by midnight EDT. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
showed a rapid trend for increasing stability. The greatest risk
for any thunderstorms will be before 9 PM EDT. Still expecting
gusty west winds to develop behind a cold front moving across
southern New England this evening.

Previous Discussion...

Any lingering rain will exit the region tonight around midnight
and a cold front will progress through, which will also help
clear some of today`s cloud cover. Gusty west winds to around
25 knots will be possible. Drier conditions take hold as this
cooler and drier airmass moves in; dewpoints expected to fall
from the 50s and 60s down to the 30s and 40s, and PWATs decrease
down to around 0.5". Lows tonight expected to be in the low 40s
across the interior, with mid 40s for much of the coastal plain
into the Cape and Islands.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

* Cool and blustery before winds diminish overnight

Clouds return for Sunday due to the cyclonic flow aloft from a
trough sitting over the region. Winds shift more NW as the day
goes on. CAA will continue to promote the mixing of winds aloft
down to the surface, fueling gusts to 35 kt in the highest
elevations. Most guidance is indicating that the highest winds
are possible in the afternoon to evening hours when the core of
the 50-60 kt jet will be over much of southern New England as
the trough continues to move east. However, the mixing of the
strongest winds may be cut off as the jet decouples in the
evening hours, so held off on any wind headlines for the time
being. Clear conditions make a return Sunday night as high
pressure begins to move in after the low exits. Highs Sunday are
expected to be in the 50s, and lows Sunday night should be in
the 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Messages:

* Much warmer with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. A few
  showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
  ahead of an approaching cold front.

* Near seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday. While
  Thursday is likely dry, rain chances return for Friday.

High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast early neat week,
but extends far enough north into New England to maintain dry
weather through Tuesday. Our region will also be on the warmer
side of this high pressure with increasing southwest winds,
especially Tuesday.

A low pressure moving across eastern Canada should push its cold
front across southern New England some time Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This will mean a chance for showers during
this time.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday with dry weather, but
this time its positioning will lead to lower temperatures.
Another low pressure moving across eastern Canada should send
another cold front our way late next week. Thus, there is a risk
for more showers late next week into next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

Improvement toward SCT-BKN VFR with cold frontal passage, though
some MVFR bases may develop overnight in western airports. Winds
become W/WNW around 10-15 kt with gusts 25 kt (up to 30 kt
across the high terrain).

Sunday through Sunday Night: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 30-35 kt possible across the
region during the afternoon/evening hours, dropping off
overnight.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in timing.

Scattered RA possible over the next few hours, ending around 02z.
Cigs improving to borderline VFR levels overnight. Gusty winds
continue through tonight with the cold frontal passage.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Timing for lifting of cigs dependent on frontal passage.
Improvement to MVFR possible around 21z, but may be later.
Isolated TS could be possible this evening.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Southerly flow continues to strengthen into the SCA range for
the rest of today, with winds 25-30 kt and seas 4-7 ft. Rain and
reduced visibilities expected until a sharp frontal passage this
evening, bringing a windshift to W/NW around 15-25 kt. Sunday
NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft. Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected to continue through Sunday night
across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay,
with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas Sunday night
ranging from 4-6 ft.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250-
     254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk/Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin/Mensch