Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

FXUS64 KBRO 150538 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.




.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Inherited TAF`s very much on track so will continue
trends. VFR conditions expected to continue remainder of the
night with stubborn mid-level cloud deck persisting and slowly
lowering. MVFR ceilings should develop mid-morning as moisture
increases. A few light showers around the mid-Lower RGV, mainly
mid-day, but with low impact. As a surface low develops in the
Plains, winds are also expected to increase and become gusty by
late morning. Low cloud deck may mix/scatter out to VFR late
afternoon, with MVFR CIG`s progged to return after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure
centered to the north and northeast of the region will continue
to shift east, resulting in veering winds tonight, from east to
southeast. Light winds will become moderate to breezy southeast to
south on Thursday due to the interaction with deepening low
pressure over the central high Plains. Low cloud cover will
increase on Thursday as low level Gulf moisture surges into the
area, also bringing isolated showers across the coastal areas.
Temps will continue near normal tonight, in the 50s and 60s, but
will trend warmer Thursday and Thursday night as Gulf air with
more moisture edges west. High temps Thursday will be in the
middle to upper 70s, while low temperatures Thursday night will be
solidly in the 60s.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Upper level flow should
remain rather zonal to start the long term period. At the surface,
a strong return flow continues to establish as the surface high
pressure moves eastward toward the Tampa Bay area. This will allow
low level moisture to increase across the forecast area. At the
same time a subtle impulse tries to develop across northeast
Mexico. Global QPF doesn`t ping much with much of the accent
residing north of the lower valley. Still, can`t rule out a shower
or storm...IF the cap is able to break.

The progressive westerly flow will continue through the weekend.
Southerly winds will continue and temperatures are expected to
warm well above average with most places along and west of I69C
warming into the 90s. Another shear axis is progged to set up late
Sunday into early Monday, however, with a dry column above and
only modest lifting, think this time should be mostly dry, but
there`s a nonzero shot late Sunday and early Monday of a shallow
shower or two developing (this will be the exception rather than
the rule of course).

A weak front is progged to moved through the region on Monday.
Given the zonal/progressive nature aloft, don`t expect much behind
it other than temperatures dropping back into the 80s where they
were previously in the 90s. As we move into midweek, the
remainder of the long term looks dry.

MARINE (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure is
centered roughly over east Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley, shifting slowly east and supporting the current light
northeast to east winds. A deepening low pressure center over
eastern Colorado will interact with the regional high pressure to
support stronger southeast to south winds tonight through
Thursday night. Southeast to south winds will increase from light
to moderate on the Laguna Thursday. Moderate southeast to south
winds and moderate seas will continue across the nearshore Gulf
waters. Southeast to south winds will increase to between 15 and
20 knots Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with seas offshore
building to 4 to 6 feet or possibly short lived 5 to 7 feet.
Isolated showers will develop along the coast Thursday due to the
increased return flow.

(Friday through Wednesday): Southeasterly flow will increase on
Friday allowing seas and winds to increase to around SCEC
conditions. The pressure gradient will weaken eventually as the
high pressure moves further away and the low slides across the
Ohio Valley. This will help drop winds and seas below SCEC, but
should still remain moderate through the remainder of the weekend.

Conditions are expected to improve additionally early next week as
a passive surface boundary moves down and stalls further relaxing
surface pressure gradient. This will be short lived as by around
midweek a low develops across western TX restrengthening the low
level flow.




This product is also available on the web at:

53-Schroeder/64 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.