Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230445 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows the occasional towering
cumulus moving onshore from the neighboring Gulf of Mexico, a
trend that should persist through the remainder of the overnight
hours with light onshore winds also prevailing. Tomorrow, VFR
will continue as surface winds become moderate. Tomorrow evening
should be a carbon copy of current conditions.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail into tonight
with light SE winds. Model guidance suggests MVFR ceilings will
reform at times late tonight into mid morning Wednesday due to
low level moisture and a nocturnal inversion. Higher confidence
in periodic MVFR ceilings at MFE than at HRL or BRO. SE winds
pick up slightly mid to late Wednesday morning and BKN skies
become more SCT through Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The 500 mb closed low
over the Western States will start lifting out to the Northeast
throughout Wed Night. At the same time broad 500 mb troffing over
the Gulf of Mex will also start shifting eastward. This will allow
mid level ridging to build steadily over much of Mexico and southern
TX. This will maintain hot and relatively rain free conditions
across the area. Will maintain some slgt chc pops mainly across
the western counties in case any of the conv south of the Rio
Grande edges northwards into the area. Expect this conv to
gradually die off later this evening with the loss of the daytime
heating. Will also maintain some mention of slgt chcs of marine
conv tomorrow morning with only 10 % values expected inland.

For temps will go a little higher than the short term guidance
mainly for highs. For lows will opt for a general model blend of the

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The upper level trough will
continue to reside along the upper TX Gulf Coast on Thursday. At
this time, eyes are on the (sub)Tropical disturbance around the
northern Yucatan. With time, globals show gradual development of
this low as we progress into the holiday weekend. The
aforementioned trough across the gulf should help keep this system
well east of Deep South Texas.

With possible (sub)tropical development, our region is expected
to remain in the subsidence region with continued hot and dry
conditions through the holiday weekend and likely beyond. In
fact, Sunday may be the hottest day with 100s pushing as far east
as the inland coastal counties (generally along and west of I69E).
Overall, for our region a very benign weather pattern is
expected. Little if any precipitation is expected in the long
range. Furthermore, beyond the tropical disturbance the only
additional entity to highlight is a slight increase in southerly
surface winds on Sunday and perhaps again on Monday.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Surface ridging over the
Gulf of Mexico will maintain a pretty light PGF over the lower TX
Bay and Gulf waters. Accordingly, fairly light winds and seas will
continue throughout the short term with no SCA conditions expected
through Wed Night.

(Thursday through Tuesday): The primary focus in the long term
will be the increase in southerly winds very late in the period.
This will likely cause a modest uptick in seas with perhaps
cautionary wording expected by Sunday or Monday. Outside of this
timeframe, conditions look rather tranquil.



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