Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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629 FXUS61 KBTV 201903 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Clear skies will give way to increasing cloud cover after midnight as a coastal low moves of the coast of Virginia and tracks eastward. At this times it still looks like most of the impacts will be felt south of the North Country but a few snow showers cannot be ruled out for southern Vermont on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal values for the second half of the week heading into the weekend as the coastal low helps to displace the high pressure that has been entrenched across the region over the past several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...It was a beautiful first day of spring today as sunny skies were observed across the North Country. However, temperatures did trend about 10 degrees below normal so far this afternoon with overnight lows last night 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The clear skies will come to an end after midnight tonight as cirrus associated with a coastal low well south of the area begins to overspread the area. The biggest question with the cloud cover is to when it will begin to build across the region as it could impact overnight low temperatures quite significantly. Visible imagery this afternoon shows that some cirrus clouds have moved into southern Vermont but is making little progress northward. This is because as the low continues to track eastward, there won`t be much of a push northward for clouds to build across the area. Cloud cover is still expected to develop just before sunrise Wednesday morning that may inhibit overnight temperatures a bit. However, with clear skies for the majority of the overnight period, temperatures are expected to still plummet after sunset. This time, however, temperatures will be a bit warmer as temperatures will generally be in teens with some locations in the single digits. Wednesday will be warmer as the coastal low is helping to displace the high pressure system that has been entrenched across the region. 850 temperatures by tomorrow afternoon will warm to -4 degrees C (currently -10 degrees C) which is a big change from the near -20 degrees C temps observed earlier this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s which is closer to normal values but still slightly below normal. Most of the North Country will miss out on any precipitation as the coastal low tracks to far to the south and east but a few snow showers may be seen across southern Vermont with little to no accumulation thanks to the spring sun. Temperatures overnight on Wednesday into Thursday will be closer to normal as cloud cover will inhibit much in terms of radiational cooling. Lows will generally be in the mid teens to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 AM EDT Tuesday...On Wednesday night coastal low pressure system will be tracking just outside the benchmark off the coast of Cape Cod. All of the stronger forcing and deeper moisture will be southeast of our region. Do expected some light snow for Windsor County Wednesday night, have mentioned up to about two inches of snowfall. On Thursday as the low lifts north and eastward, will have some wrap around light snow showers in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Accumulations will be light. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday night with plenty of clouds across the region, then cooler than seasonal normals on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Tuesday...No big changes for the long term portion of the forecast from Thursday night through Tuesday. Still mainly just an upper trough over the area, mainly resulting in a bunch of clouds and some colder than normal temperatures continuing. Will have occasional bits of shortwave energy pass through the progressive flow and a few mountain snow showers will be possible. Temperatures will start out colder than seasonal normals, trending back towards normal headed into next weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains dominant. Skies will remain mostly clear through the period until midnight when cirrus clouds begin to build across the region. Some gusty winds will develop late Wednesday morning in response to the coastal low tracking to our south and east but should remain 20 kts or less. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Clay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.