787
FXUS62 KCAE 131744
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
144 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak
upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to
cooler temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week
period. A new upper ridge could build in from the east to end
the week with slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Very hot and humid for the remainder of this afternoon.
- Scattered strong thunderstorms through this evening.

Weak ridging persists aloft, with its axis positioned just west
of the region. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is located just off the SC coast, with a general
north/northwest flow in place across the area.

Early afternoon mesoanalysis depicts another moderately to
strongly unstable environment, with SBCAPE values upwards of
2500-3500 J/kg. The airmass is also very moist, with PWATs of
1.6 to 2.0 inches as dew points remain in the lower to mid 70s.
The instability and deep moisture will allow for scattered
convection to develop though the afternoon, with a focus along
differential heating/moisture boundaries initially. The
coverage should be greatest toward the eastern Midlands and Pee
Dee where the highest PWATs are located. The overall severe
weather threat appears limited once again with unimpressive
DCAPE values, but a few stronger or marginally severe
thunderstorms with strong to isolated damaging wind gusts are
possible through much of the evening. The convection should
weaken later this evening, but there could be a few lingering
showers into the early overnight hours.

Temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid 90s, with a few
pockets of upper 90s possible. These temperatures combined with
the higher dew point values will support heat indices as high as
100-105 degrees across most of the area, highest along/south of
the I-20 corridor. However, this remains below our local heat
advisory criteria of 108. Temperatures tonight will be
seasonably mild, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continue Monday with a gradual cooling
  trend beginning Tuesday.
- Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening.

Upper ridging on Monday is expected to begin breaking down to begin
the week as an upper trough is forecast to swing by to our north. As
a result, another hot and humid day is in store for Monday. Heat
index values are forecast to be in the 100-105 degree range, with
highest values expected in the CSRA; however, these values are below
our criteria for a Heat Advisory (108 or greater), so holding off
for now. That said, it`s still important to take heat safety
measures to remain cool and avoid heat exhaustion, such as take
breaks from the heat and drink plenty of water. Temperatures begin
to cool down some beginning on Tuesday as the ridge continues to
break down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon and evening. The trend of the potential for a few strong
to marginally severe storms continues. Strong winds, small hail,
locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning will continue to be the
threats of stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- More seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms
  possible each day.

Gradual cooling trend continues into midweek as the upper ridge
shifts to our southeast. An approaching, but weakening front is
forecast to move toward the area Wednesday, bringing a higher chance
for precipitation to the area. After that, model guidance is in good
agreement that upper ridging builds back over the area to end the
week. As a result, temperatures are forecast to warm back up toward
the end of the forecast period. The Hurricane Center is watching an
area for the development of a tropical system in the northern Gulf
mid to late week. Because of the building ridge over our area, all
signs are pointing to the system heading west and away from our
forecast area should one form.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail at the terminals though 18Z
Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist
through this evening, due to the combination of strong
instability and deep moisture over the area. Coverage should be
greatest across the eastern Midlands, and while KOGB may have
the greatest probability of experiencing convection, have
maintained a PROB30 for thunderstorms at all terminals through
00Z. Brief reductions in visibility and gusty/erratic winds are
possible in/near thunderstorms. Overnight, expect some mid/high
level cloud cover. Guidance is suggesting some patchy fog
formation toward daybreak, but confidence is highest at KOGB
where the low level moisture is deepest, so included a TEMPO
group from 08-12Z. Winds through the forecast period will remain
less than 10 kt.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early this week
with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$