Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 242320
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
720 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system over the region will lift
northeast to the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday. Another low
pressure system will move through the area Thursday night and
Friday, with a possible third disturbance lingering on Saturday.
High pressure will move into the region early next week
bringing dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level low positioned over
the Tennessee Valley this evening. Meanwhile, a surface
analysis shows a weak area of low pressure over northern South
Carolina, with an associated warm front lifting into North
Carolina and a weak cold front extending southwest across the
western Midlands and into the CSRA. As the night progresses, the
upper low will shift across western and central North Carolina,
while the surface low tracks off to the northeast away from the
local area.

There are scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
across mainly the western and northern Midlands early this
evening, where the greatest moisture and instability are in
place. High resolution mesoscale models show the
showers/isolated thunderstorms continuing in generally the same
areas, with some decrease in coverage expected late this
evening and especially during the overnight hours. Clouds could
be on the increase from the west through mid-evening as the weak
cold front pushes eastward, however with the loss of diurnal
heating some clearing is then expected later this evening and
overnight. Low temperatures should be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stacked low pressure system over North Carolina Wednesday
morning will lift northeast to the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday
night. We continued slight chance pops across the northern
Midlands on Wednesday given surface troughing and weak
instability. Downslope flow and shallow moisture should limit
convection.

A southern stream short wave trough will swing through the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday while surface low pressure moves northeastward
across Georgia Thursday afternoon and across the Carolinas Thursday
night. This will bring another chance for showers during the day on
Thursday with the best chance Thursday night as the deepest moisture
crosses the region. Models indicate weak instability with LI values
ranging from -1 to -3, so cannot rule out isolated thunder.

The center of surface low pressure will lift northeastward away
from the region on Friday with lingering surface troughing
across the Midlands. A cold front will approach the area during
the day and cross the area Friday night. This will support
slight chance pops for a majority of the area with chance pops
north on Friday.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will range from the mid 70s to
around 80...and the mid 70s on Friday. Overnight lows will
range through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through the long term.

An upper level trough will cross the area and shift off the East
Coast on Saturday. Upper ridging along with surface high pressure
will move into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry weather along
with seasonable temperatures can be expected early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the period.

Scattered to broken cumulus and VFR conditions will dominate
through the period. Thunderstorms should stay north of the
terminals, but there may be isolated showers mainly near
CAE/CUB this evening. Southwest winds have diminished and will
remain less than 10 kts through the night. Winds will shift more
westerly on Wednesday. Fog threat appears low with mixing in
the boundary layer.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another low pressure system will bring restrictions Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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