Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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160 FXUS61 KCAR 250403 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1203 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide east into the open Atlantic tonight. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Wednesday into Wednesday night and track across our region on Thursday. the low will lift north of the Maritimes Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Update 12:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and winds based on latest observations. No other changes. Orgnl Disc: An strong upper level ridge of high pressure will crest over the area this evidence. The resulting subsidence and a warming southwest wind have produced widespread 70F readings for the first time since last October. The notable exception was along the coast where onshore winds dominated. A combination of increasing high clouds and a fairly steady southwest wind will keep temperatures above 40F tonight. Clouds will thicken and lower Wednesday ahead of emerging low pressure in the Mid- Atlantic states. An initial round of rain may break out by midday in the upslope regions of Piscataquis County, but the main event will move in late in the day towards southern Penobscot County and Hancock County. Rain may hold off all day towards northern Aroostook County. Highs will range from the lower 50s along the coast where onshore flow will dominate to nearly 60F in the Crown of Maine where precip will hold off through the day. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will lift north through western New England Wednesday night bringing rain, drizzle, fog and a mild and moist southeasterly flow. Rainfall combined with snow melt from the humid wind will result in considerable snow melt and rises on the rivers. An additional half inch of rain is likely overnight. The warm moist air over the cold surfaces will likely result in fog, especially late Wednesday night once the air has moistened. Rain and fog will continue into Thursday morning, ending late morning Downeast and mid afternoon over the north as drier air wrapping into the storms circulation surges in. Showers may back into western areas late in the day as the upper low swings into the area. The low will quickly lift away Thursday night with clearing to follow as high pressure builds in. This will be followed by a sunny and mild start on Friday. A rapidly moving and somewhat disorganized low will quickly lift northeast Friday afternoon bringing increasing clouds followed by some showers late Friday into Friday night. Most of the showers will be likely in western areas where a frontal boundary will be forming as the low lifts north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will track north on Saturday while a weak trailing frontal boundary across our area brings variable clouds and some showers. The low level air will remain warm and highs Saturday will likely be well into the upper 50s across the area. A cold front will push across the region Saturday evening followed by cooler conditions on Sunday. Upper level low pressure and cold air aloft will result in lots of stratocumulus and some showers Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure should then build in on Sunday bringing a return of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are forecast into Wednesday morning. MVFR cigs will move inland from the coast during the morning. IFR cigs will then tend to form towards BHB and BGR after midday as rain arrives. The IFR cigs will move north towards the remainder of the sites during the evening. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, rain and fog are expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Conditions should improve to VFR Downeast and MVFR across the north Thursday afternoon. MVFR conditions over the north and VFR conditions Downeast are likely Thursday evening. Conditions should then be VFR late Thursday night through Friday as high pressure moves across. Conditions may lower to MVFR Friday evening in lower clouds and showers, possibly dropping to IFR late Friday night. MVFR to occasionally VFR conditions are likely Saturday with some showers still possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: There may be a few gusts up to 25 kts this evening, but these winds are not expected to be sustained and will not prompt an SCA. After winds drop off later tonight, winds and seas will gradually pick up later Wednesday with an approaching frontal system. With stable conditions expected over the cold waters, have tweaked gusts downward in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Wednesday night for south winds gusting up to 30 kt. Fog will likely result in low visibilities Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds should drop below SCA Thursday morning as low pressure lifts north of the waters, and remain below SCA Through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Freeze dried fine fuels, gusty southwest winds, and low relative humidity led to an increase in Maine Forest Service`s fire danger risk to moderate and prompted a Special Weather Statement for the elevated risk until 6PM. Maine Forest Service has reported numerous small fires this afternoon with these favorable conditions. Tomorrow`s clouds and rain are expected to dampen activity on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Satellite imagery and ground reports indicate little ice remaining on the Aroostook River, but the Saint John River still has some ice-covered areas...and with today`s warm is currently moving as evidenced by hydrographs. The ice is rotted such that it`s not highly conducive to prolonged jamming and the threat is not considered to be high. On the other hand, the combination of snow melt and rainfall is generating a more tangible threat by Thursday afternoon into Friday. With forecast QPF in northern zones in the range between 1.25 to 1.5 inches, rivers such as the Aroostook, Saint John, northern portions of the Penobscot and Mattawamkeag will trend towards minor flooding levels. If QPF forecasts increase for Wednesday into Thursday evening, strong consideration will be needed for a Flood Watch in the northern zones...covering the aforementioned rivers as moderate flooding becomes a risk. There`s still sufficient snow cover in northern Aroostook to create issues...and it`s fully ripened after today`s warmth. Melting will continue non-stop into Sunday night. Overall, the biggest potential risk will be for the Saint John River. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.