Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 221136 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 736 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region through the weekend. Low pressure may move across the region on Monday night through Tuesday night. High pressure will then rebuild. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the forecast area will remain under the influence of west-northwest flow around the large upper low situated over New England. At the surface, high pressure stretching along the Mississippi Valley will gradually shift eastward as a low deepens off the New England coast. This will result in low level northwesterly flow across the region in the morning, becoming westerly in the afternoon. Deep dry air will prevail, yielding a dry forecast. Temperatures are forecast to top out around 70 in most areas, with some low 70s expected in southeast Georgia. Westerly winds will be breezy at times, with gusts topping out in the 20-25 mph range. Tonight: High pressure over the Upper Midwest will become the dominant feature, veering winds around to more northerly late tonight. Clear skies and a dry forecast will prevail. Lows are forecast to reach the low to mid 40s in most areas away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the area on Saturday will slide off the Carolina coast on Sunday. Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s. An upper shortwave will approach the area on Monday, pushing a surface low pressure system into central and eastern SC during the afternoon. 0-6 km flow will be predominantly westerly so moisture return ahead of the low will be somewhat limited. Isolated to scattered showers should move into the area late Monday afternoon. There may be enough instability to support a few thunderstorms as well. Strong warm advection will result in another warm day with highs in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A series of shortwaves will move through the area Monday night through Tuesday night while a backdoor cold front slowly sinks south through the area. We currently have the highest rain chances on Tuesday as this coincides with the front dropping through the area and the strongest PVA aloft. Cool high pressure will affect the area through Wednesday before weakening and shifting east, allowing for a warming trend late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at both KCHS and KSAV through 12Z Saturday. Westerly winds will become gusty late this morning and this afternoon, with frequent gusts into the 20-25 knot range. Extended Aviation: Flight restrictions possible Monday night through Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Northwest winds topping out in the 15-20 knot range will prevail this morning and any lingering Small Craft Advisories are expected to come down by noon. Winds will see a brief west-southwesterly surge this afternoon, and could be near advisory thresholds for Charleston Harbor and the Charleston County waters. Overall, winds should top out in the 15-20 knot range with seas 2-4 feet out to 20 nm and 4-5 feet beyond. Overnight, winds will veer around to northerly after midnight. Winds will remain elevated in the 15-20 knot range and just below advisory thresholds. High pressure will maintain relatively benign marine conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Stronger southwest flow will setup on Monday ahead of a low pressure system, though the current forecast keeps conditions just below advisory levels. A strong northeast gradient will develop next Tuesday through Thursday behind the backdoor cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely across most of the marine area. Rip Currents: Breezy westerly winds and moderate swell energy will combine to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches through this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today: High pressure will build in to the area as an area of low pressure off the New England coast deepens. Dry air across the region will result in relative humidity values falling into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon. Westerly winds will be breezy this afternoon, with frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeast Georgia. A Fire Danger Statement could also be needed for southeast South Carolina following coordination with users and surrounding NWS offices later this morning. Saturday through Sunday: Critical or near-critical relative humidity values are likely to persist. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar has failed. Technicians will look into the issue this morning. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL FIRE WEATHER... EQUIPMENT...

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