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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCHS 191941
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
341 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will prevail through Friday. A series of upper
disturbances will bring increasing rain chances this weekend,
followed by a passing cold front early next week. High pressure
should then prevail during the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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The cap has remained firmly in place this afternoon as evidenced
by the lack of vertical growth in the cumulus field. The
guidance now shows the weak shortwave energy passing by to our
north, so even if convection can get going, it should stay out
of our area. It will be a relatively warm night with lows in
the lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The weekend will start off warm and dry with a large Bermuda High
extending across the western Atlantic and a mid-lvl ridge axis
positioned near the Southeast Coast. Southeast winds along the
western edge of these features along with 1000-850 mb thickness
levels suggest near record highs Friday afternoon, with temps
generally approaching the low-mid 90s away from the coast. Friday
night lows will also remain warm/mild, only dipping into the upper
60s/lower 70s, but some mid-lvl energy approaching from the south
could help produce a few showers and slightly cooler temps across
southern areas. On Saturday, mid-lvl energy continues a northward
track along the western periphery of the ridge, setting up afternoon
showers/thunderstorms as temps peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Temps will once again remain mild Saturday night, only dipping into
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday should follow a similar trend with
sufficient moisture in place (PWATs between 1.50-1.75 inches) and
another round of mid-lvl energy traversing the region, but precip
coverage should be slightly higher with scattered/numerous showers
and thunderstorms during peak heating. High temps should remain a
degree or two lower than the previous day given greater
shower/thunderstorm coverage and clouds. In general Sunday highs
should range in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees well inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large shortwave will drop a cold front into the region Monday and
showers/thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Unsettled
weather will persist into at least the middle of next week as deep
moisture lingers and shortwave energy passes over the forecast area.
Additionally, a coastal trough looks to develop early to mid next
week, which will maintain a typical diurnal convection trend.
Temperatures are forecast to drop to near normal through mid next
week, and then expected to increase towards the latter portion of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 18Z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Friday
night. Brief flight restrictions are possible in scattered
showers/thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
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A robust sea breeze will continue this afternoon along the
coast, with some 20 kt gusts possible in Charleston Harbor.
Overnight, the tightest gradient will exist over the Atlantic
waters where 20 kt gusts will be possible.

High pressure will prevail across local waters this weekend
into early next week, favoring winds/seas that remain well below
Small Craft Advisory levels. In general, south- southwest winds
will remain around 15 kt or less (highest near the land/seas
interface) while seas are no higher than 3-4 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are expected to remain above normal through tonight.
There is a risk for minor coastal flooding with the high tide
tonight along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties.

&&

.CLIMATE...
May 19 Record High Temperatures:
KCHS: 96/1996
KSAV: 97/1996

May 20 Record High Min Temperatures:
KCHS: 72/1997

May 20 Record High Temperatures:
KCHS: 97/1938
KSAV: 96/2006

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...