Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 191941 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 341 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will prevail through Friday. A series of upper disturbances will bring increasing rain chances this weekend, followed by a passing cold front early next week. High pressure should then prevail during the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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The cap has remained firmly in place this afternoon as evidenced by the lack of vertical growth in the cumulus field. The guidance now shows the weak shortwave energy passing by to our north, so even if convection can get going, it should stay out of our area. It will be a relatively warm night with lows in the lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The weekend will start off warm and dry with a large Bermuda High extending across the western Atlantic and a mid-lvl ridge axis positioned near the Southeast Coast. Southeast winds along the western edge of these features along with 1000-850 mb thickness levels suggest near record highs Friday afternoon, with temps generally approaching the low-mid 90s away from the coast. Friday night lows will also remain warm/mild, only dipping into the upper 60s/lower 70s, but some mid-lvl energy approaching from the south could help produce a few showers and slightly cooler temps across southern areas. On Saturday, mid-lvl energy continues a northward track along the western periphery of the ridge, setting up afternoon showers/thunderstorms as temps peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temps will once again remain mild Saturday night, only dipping into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday should follow a similar trend with sufficient moisture in place (PWATs between 1.50-1.75 inches) and another round of mid-lvl energy traversing the region, but precip coverage should be slightly higher with scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. High temps should remain a degree or two lower than the previous day given greater shower/thunderstorm coverage and clouds. In general Sunday highs should range in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees well inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large shortwave will drop a cold front into the region Monday and showers/thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Unsettled weather will persist into at least the middle of next week as deep moisture lingers and shortwave energy passes over the forecast area. Additionally, a coastal trough looks to develop early to mid next week, which will maintain a typical diurnal convection trend. Temperatures are forecast to drop to near normal through mid next week, and then expected to increase towards the latter portion of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through 18Z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Friday night. Brief flight restrictions are possible in scattered showers/thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE...
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A robust sea breeze will continue this afternoon along the coast, with some 20 kt gusts possible in Charleston Harbor. Overnight, the tightest gradient will exist over the Atlantic waters where 20 kt gusts will be possible. High pressure will prevail across local waters this weekend into early next week, favoring winds/seas that remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels. In general, south- southwest winds will remain around 15 kt or less (highest near the land/seas interface) while seas are no higher than 3-4 ft.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides are expected to remain above normal through tonight. There is a risk for minor coastal flooding with the high tide tonight along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. && .CLIMATE... May 19 Record High Temperatures: KCHS: 96/1996 KSAV: 97/1996 May 20 Record High Min Temperatures: KCHS: 72/1997 May 20 Record High Temperatures: KCHS: 97/1938 KSAV: 96/2006 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...DPB/JRL MARINE...DPB/JRL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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