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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCHS 262319
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday.
Then, a surface trough along with increased moisture should
bring more typical showers and thunderstorms, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours Friday through the middle
of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Early this evening: No changes needed to the going forecast. A
quiet night is on tap with just high clouds spreading across
Georgia and the Carolinas. These high clouds should thin with
time but will remain to some degree through sunrise. Lows are
still forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low/mid
70s at the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Thursday: Cannot completely rule out and isolated/brief
shower/thunderstorm or two as the sea breeze advances inland
during the afternoon. However, latest guidance suggests that
ongoing dry conditions, as indicated by surface dewpoints mainly
in the 60s, will translate to PoPs below 15 percent. Thus,
forecasts include no mention of precipitation over land.
Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 90s at most
locations inland from the beaches.

Thursday night: Persistent/moistening onshore flow could push a
few showers/thunderstorms into coastal waters and perhaps
onshore into southern coastal counties overnight. Otherwise, low
temperatures should range from around 70F well inland to the
upper 70s on the coast.

Friday through Saturday: The environment will continue to
gradually moisten between an inland trough of low pressure and
offshore high pressure, so the prospects for diurnal
showers/thunderstorms should increase, with greater coverage of
showers/thunderstorms saturday afternoon as compared with Friday
afternoon. However, latest progs of 850-500 mb mean relative
humidity depict relatively dry air stubbornly persisting over
the region. As a result, lowered PoPs somewhat from previous
forecasts. While the potential for severe weather should remain
low through this period, increasing coverage of thunderstorms
could support a brief/pulse severe thunderstorm or two with
isolated damaging wind gusts, especially saturday
afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will range from highs in
the lower 90s inland from the beaches to low temps in the upper
60s/around 70F well inland to the middle 70s at the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface troughing will prevail over or nearby the region
throughout the long term, bringing afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures are forecasted to rise,
reaching several degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday. Heat
indices could reach 105 degrees for some areas starting Monday,
especially south of I-16. However, on this day (July 1st) is
when we transition our Heat Advisory criteria to 110 degrees, so
no advisories will be needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR are expected to prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 00z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Late this week into early next week,
outside any showers/thunderstorms that could produce brief
flight restrictions and gusty winds, mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Quiet conditions will prevail with weak high pressure
in control. Winds will become variable about 5 to 10 kt or less
with seas 1-2 feet.

Thursday through Monday: Outside locally hazardous conditions
within/near isolated/scattered thunderstorms, winds/seas are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
this period. East winds Thursday through Friday will turn to the
south/southeast early this weekend then to the south/southwest
late weekend into early next week. By early next week, southwest
winds could surge to around 20 knots, and seas could build to
4-5 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR