Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 262319 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 719 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through Thursday. Then, a surface trough along with increased moisture should bring more typical showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours Friday through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Early this evening: No changes needed to the going forecast. A quiet night is on tap with just high clouds spreading across Georgia and the Carolinas. These high clouds should thin with time but will remain to some degree through sunrise. Lows are still forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Thursday: Cannot completely rule out and isolated/brief shower/thunderstorm or two as the sea breeze advances inland during the afternoon. However, latest guidance suggests that ongoing dry conditions, as indicated by surface dewpoints mainly in the 60s, will translate to PoPs below 15 percent. Thus, forecasts include no mention of precipitation over land. Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 90s at most locations inland from the beaches. Thursday night: Persistent/moistening onshore flow could push a few showers/thunderstorms into coastal waters and perhaps onshore into southern coastal counties overnight. Otherwise, low temperatures should range from around 70F well inland to the upper 70s on the coast. Friday through Saturday: The environment will continue to gradually moisten between an inland trough of low pressure and offshore high pressure, so the prospects for diurnal showers/thunderstorms should increase, with greater coverage of showers/thunderstorms saturday afternoon as compared with Friday afternoon. However, latest progs of 850-500 mb mean relative humidity depict relatively dry air stubbornly persisting over the region. As a result, lowered PoPs somewhat from previous forecasts. While the potential for severe weather should remain low through this period, increasing coverage of thunderstorms could support a brief/pulse severe thunderstorm or two with isolated damaging wind gusts, especially saturday afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will range from highs in the lower 90s inland from the beaches to low temps in the upper 60s/around 70F well inland to the middle 70s at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface troughing will prevail over or nearby the region throughout the long term, bringing afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures are forecasted to rise, reaching several degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices could reach 105 degrees for some areas starting Monday, especially south of I-16. However, on this day (July 1st) is when we transition our Heat Advisory criteria to 110 degrees, so no advisories will be needed.
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&& .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR are expected to prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 00z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Late this week into early next week, outside any showers/thunderstorms that could produce brief flight restrictions and gusty winds, mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Tonight: Quiet conditions will prevail with weak high pressure in control. Winds will become variable about 5 to 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 feet. Thursday through Monday: Outside locally hazardous conditions within/near isolated/scattered thunderstorms, winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through this period. East winds Thursday through Friday will turn to the south/southeast early this weekend then to the south/southwest late weekend into early next week. By early next week, southwest winds could surge to around 20 knots, and seas could build to 4-5 feet. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...SPR LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...BSH/SPR MARINE...RJB/SPR

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