National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 100852
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes today. The
high will weaken slightly on Tuesday as low pressure moves across
the Great Lakes then strengthen again behind the system Tuesday
night. High pressure will finally shift east of the area late
Wednesday as a trough moves out of the Plains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Stratus is expanding across the Great Lakes Region beneath a ridge
extending from high pressure over the Plains. Trended towards a more
pessimistic cloud forecast for today. Both the NAM and RAP 950mb
relative humidity fields are handling the stratus well and keep the
clouds in place through at least today. It is unclear to what extent
the clouds will clear out tonight or if they will linger through
Tuesday. Better mixing will occur tonight as winds near the top of
the inversion increase to around 30 knots, possibly leading to some
breaks across NW Ohio. These breaks may be brief as low level
isentropic ascent develops ahead of the low pressure system sliding
east across the Great Lakes with stratus expanding again towards
morning. Given the expected cloud cover today coupled with a cool
start this morning, lowered highs for today and these values
may still be too warm. Also raised mins for tonight in areas
where skies are not expected to clear.

Tuesday expected to be dry until a low chance of snow showers
returns to the lakeshore areas late in the day. An upper level
trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes Region but the
airmass will remain quite dry. Not a good set-up for lake effect,
but low level westerly flow across Lake Erie along with convergence
along the NE lakeshore may be just enough for scattered snow showers
to develop late in the day, mainly in NW PA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Still low chance of snow in the snowbelt Tuesday evening, but
after that the upper level short wave swing East of the forecast
area. High pressure slides quickly across the Upper Ohio Valley
Wednesday a dry day. Another upper level short wave moves
across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. Short wave will
give a chance of some light snow Wednesday night. But limited
moisture source and speed of the short wave will limit amounts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Models track low pressure slowly across the Ohio Valley
thursday night into Friday night. GFS is faster and further
north with the low than the ECMWF. The best chance for precip
continues to be Friday, when all precip should fall as rain.
Lows will track east of the forecast area Saturday morning, as
high pressure builds south across the area. GFS now coming into
agreement with ECMWF for a dry Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak trough sliding across the eastern Great Lakes will lead
to an expansion of stratus overnight into Monday. At 06Z, MVFR
ceilings were in place at ERI and on the doorstep of YNG. Clouds
will expand to most terminals in the next few hours. MFD may be
the slowest to cloud up and could see some patchy fog develop
before clouds arrive. Visibilites have already been down as low
as 3 miles and could drop below a mile later tonight. Elsewhere
clouds will primarily be MVFR but a few sites could lower to
IFR for a few hours. Clouds will gradually erode Monday but may
take until late in the day or event into Monday night,
especially in the east. Light northwest winds will shift to the
west on Monday and southwest Monday evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR NE Ohio/NW PA Monday night and Tuesday night
with clouds and flurries.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lake will be relatively quiet quiet today with north winds of 5 to
10 knots.  Winds will back to the SW tonight and increase to 10 to
20 knots Tuesday as a weak low swings across The Eastern Lakes. At
this point waves of 2 to 4 feet seems reasonable, but will need to
continue to monitor. Winds diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as
high pressure tracks east across the Upper Ohio Valley.  South flow
sets up on the Lake Wednesday night as high shifts east of the lake.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB