Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 190706 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Great Lakes and upper Midwest will drift southeast across the Ohio valley today into Monday. Monday night low pressure will move northeast out of Iowa and move through the central Great Lakes Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build southeast across the region today and through tonight. The high will weaken its grip on the region Monday as it drifts northeast away from New England. Expecting plenty of sun today. Monday should begin sunny to partly cloudy with clouds increasing from the west through the afternoon as moisture ahead of the low moves into the area. Did bring in a slight chance pop to grids far west late afternoon but on balance expect a dry day for most if not all. Highs today mostly around 80. Highs Monday lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The focus of the short term period is precip chances as fairly strong low pressure over the mid Mississippi valley tracks northeast into the central Great Lakes by Tuesday morning and into southern Quebec by Wednesday. Only minor changes made to the forecast during the period, with models in fairly good agreement with the overall pattern. Minor differences still exist with timing/onset of precip, as strong moisture return and decent isentropic lift moves into the region ahead of the low Monday night. Have opted to continue likely pops after 06Z Tuesday, and low end cat pops progressing west to east during the day on Tuesday as the attendant cold front pushes east through the area. Pops will generally diminish from west to east across the area Tuesday night, but have lingered pops through Wednesday, especially across northeast OH/northwest PA, as a secondary cold front pushes south through the area along with some mid level energy. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night with dry conditions prevailing. No big changes to temps through the period, with seasonable conditions ahead of the front through Tuesday, then below normal temps Wednesday and Wednesday night behind the front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fairly quiet long term expected as a large area of high pressure over the region Thursday builds east into New England Friday and off the Atlantic coast on Saturday. This will keep conditions dry across the region through at least Friday night. Models are in fairly good agreement with a northern stream wave kicking east through the northern Great Lakes and bringing a trailing cold front towards/through the area Saturday/Saturday night, so have opted for slight chance pops late Friday night and Saturday. A modest warming trend is expected into the weekend with below normal highs Thursday warming into the low 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Conditions VFR at TAF time as high pressure and drier air build in from the north. Only concern would be the potential for patchy MVFR fog around sunrise mainly away from the lake. Went ahead and gave inland tafs a tempo MVFR visibility with morning fog but otherwise expect VFR conditions to persist through the day. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions expected today through Monday with high pressure over the lakes, with east/northeast winds generally 10-15 kts or less. Winds will veer southerly Monday night as strong low pressure moves northeast into the central lakes by Tuesday morning. Southerly winds around 20 kts are expected Tuesday ahead of a cold front, with winds veering quickly, northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday at 20- 25 kts. This will almost certainly bring small craft advisory conditions, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northwest/northerly winds will slowly diminish Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds across the lakes, with light winds slowly backing southerly by Friday as the ridge axis passes to the east of the lakes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...TK MARINE...Greenawalt

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