Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 100852 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 352 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes today. The high will weaken slightly on Tuesday as low pressure moves across the Great Lakes then strengthen again behind the system Tuesday night. High pressure will finally shift east of the area late Wednesday as a trough moves out of the Plains.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Stratus is expanding across the Great Lakes Region beneath a ridge extending from high pressure over the Plains. Trended towards a more pessimistic cloud forecast for today. Both the NAM and RAP 950mb relative humidity fields are handling the stratus well and keep the clouds in place through at least today. It is unclear to what extent the clouds will clear out tonight or if they will linger through Tuesday. Better mixing will occur tonight as winds near the top of the inversion increase to around 30 knots, possibly leading to some breaks across NW Ohio. These breaks may be brief as low level isentropic ascent develops ahead of the low pressure system sliding east across the Great Lakes with stratus expanding again towards morning. Given the expected cloud cover today coupled with a cool start this morning, lowered highs for today and these values may still be too warm. Also raised mins for tonight in areas where skies are not expected to clear. Tuesday expected to be dry until a low chance of snow showers returns to the lakeshore areas late in the day. An upper level trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes Region but the airmass will remain quite dry. Not a good set-up for lake effect, but low level westerly flow across Lake Erie along with convergence along the NE lakeshore may be just enough for scattered snow showers to develop late in the day, mainly in NW PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Still low chance of snow in the snowbelt Tuesday evening, but after that the upper level short wave swing East of the forecast area. High pressure slides quickly across the Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday a dry day. Another upper level short wave moves across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. Short wave will give a chance of some light snow Wednesday night. But limited moisture source and speed of the short wave will limit amounts.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Models track low pressure slowly across the Ohio Valley thursday night into Friday night. GFS is faster and further north with the low than the ECMWF. The best chance for precip continues to be Friday, when all precip should fall as rain. Lows will track east of the forecast area Saturday morning, as high pressure builds south across the area. GFS now coming into agreement with ECMWF for a dry Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... A weak trough sliding across the eastern Great Lakes will lead to an expansion of stratus overnight into Monday. At 06Z, MVFR ceilings were in place at ERI and on the doorstep of YNG. Clouds will expand to most terminals in the next few hours. MFD may be the slowest to cloud up and could see some patchy fog develop before clouds arrive. Visibilites have already been down as low as 3 miles and could drop below a mile later tonight. Elsewhere clouds will primarily be MVFR but a few sites could lower to IFR for a few hours. Clouds will gradually erode Monday but may take until late in the day or event into Monday night, especially in the east. Light northwest winds will shift to the west on Monday and southwest Monday evening. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR NE Ohio/NW PA Monday night and Tuesday night with clouds and flurries. && .MARINE...
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Lake will be relatively quiet quiet today with north winds of 5 to 10 knots. Winds will back to the SW tonight and increase to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday as a weak low swings across The Eastern Lakes. At this point waves of 2 to 4 feet seems reasonable, but will need to continue to monitor. Winds diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure tracks east across the Upper Ohio Valley. South flow sets up on the Lake Wednesday night as high shifts east of the lake.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KEC MARINE...DJB

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