Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231913 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 313 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across the area this evening. High pressure from the northern Plains will build east across the region on Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday then sink south again on Sunday keeping the weather across the region warm but unsettled through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mixed layer CAPES running 500-1000J/kg across the area with the most unstable air just to our southwest. High resolution forecasts show this instability growing northeast into the southern and southeastern counties and then shifting southeast as the front moves through. Also watching the area of cu development which so far has been capped but shows the most unstable air. The HRRR continues its trend of not really developing convection in the area through the evening. Don`t completely trust it however so for the late afternoon and early evening will continue with chance pops there. Dry elsewhere. Overnight and Friday high pressure builds in. Friday night models show the front returning as a warm front, driven north by low pressure moving into the western lakes. Models show increasing mid level rh across the area in the isentropic lift of moist southwest flow. Will have chance pops showers developing/drifting into the area from the north, mainly after midnight. Highs friday from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... We will have a very Spring like day on Saturday and most of the weekend with a deep southwesterly flow both at the surface and alot up to 500 mb. A mid level shortwave will move across the upper Great Lakes region and an embedded impulse will be move through the west- southwest flow at 500 mb Saturday afternoon. Moderate instablilty along with plenty of low level moisture and deep shear through the mid levels will support at least the potential for some severe weather. Given the uniform shear wind profile, linear form of storm development with strong damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards expected. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area in a Day 3 slight risk outlook which looks reasonable at this time. It appears the greatest threat time for active weather will be late Saturday afternoon through mid evening. Storms will lose their punch later Saturday evening and Saturday night. A frontal boundary will sag southward into Ohio late on Sunday. South of the boundary will destabilized with a warm and humid airmass. Additional strong to maybe some severe storms could be possible again south of the boundary Sunday afternoon given the westerly shear and instability. The front clears through the area Sunday night with slightly cooler and drier air late Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The frontal boundary drifts back northward as a warm front Monday night with a risk for scattered showers and isolated storms if we get a little low level trying to nose in across western Ohio. Mid level heights rise on Tuesday with warm southwest winds. Warmer and humid air moves back in with highs in the middle 80s and the threat for some scattered convection in the late afternoon and evening. A stout looking mid level shortwave will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Region sometime Wednesday or mid week. Timing on this feature will make a difference if we have a severe weather threat or not for Wednesday or Wednesday evening. At this time, we will mention at least the threat for more stormy weather mid week and warm and breezy weather. An upper level trough will try to start building across the Great Lake Region by the end of the week with slightly cooler weather. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... West southwest winds will turn more westerly behind a cold front today. Speeds should be around 15-25 knots with gusts into the 30s. Winds will diminish quickly this evening. Otherwise conditions are VFR early this afternoon with mostly clear skies across the region. Main concern other than the winds will be redevelopment of convection this afternoon ahead of and along the cold front. The instability will be there and it`s just a question of if the front or a lingering boundary will begin the process within the CWA or to our south. For now will have VCTS across the southern tier of terminals through the mid/late afternoon and monitor. Overnight expect VFR conditions. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Westerly winds increased this afternoon over the lake and Small Craft Advisories were issued for 20 to 25 knots winds and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds will shift to more northwesterly late this evening and over night with a decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Weak high pressure will move over the lake Friday morning with light and variable winds. Southeasterly winds will return Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front moving across the lake. Winds will shift and increase Saturday afternoon up to 20 or 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories may be needed again on Saturday. A cold front will drift southward across the lake on Sunday and shift the wind to northwesterly. High pressure will give a break in the weather for the lake on Monday with lighter winds and waves. Strong low pressure will move across the upper Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday with gusty winds for Lake Erie. South-southwesterly winds may approach 20 to 25 knots again and Small Craft Advisory conditions may be needed again Tuesday into Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...TK MARINE...Griffin

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