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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210811
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front over the local area will continue to move northeast
of the region today. A ridge of high pressure will extend
northeast along the Atlantic Coast and affect the local area
through Sunday. A cold front will move east across the region
Monday morning. High pressure will move east across the Ohio
Valley Tuesday and will extend a ridge north over the local
area. Another cold front will move southeast across the region
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level shortwave and associated positive vorticity
advection continue to move east across the area at this time. A
few very widely scattered showers continue to move east over the
western portions of the forecast area in association with the
upper level trough. The upper level feature is expected to move
east of the region today. A warm front will lift northeast
across the region this afternoon ushering in some warmer air to
the region. The warm air advection will likely help boost
temperatures a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Some
clouds in the area should have little effect on temperatures
today.

Tonight will see upper level short wave move well east of the
area allowing upper level ridge to build east over the region.
Fairly strong warm air advection will take place tonight with
the ridge in place. I may be undercutting actual low
temperatures for tonight and they may need to be adjusted upward
a bit as gradient begins to tighten up and winds will increase a
tad during the night. This should help keep things mixed enough
to prevent colder pockets from developing. Otherwise, should
remain dry through the night.

Upper level ridge shifts slightly further east Sunday allowing
upper level trough to shift east toward the Great Lakes region.
A surface low pressure system will develop along a cold front
that will approach the area. It appears the front will slow in
forward motion Sunday and result in pulling back on POPs during
the day. I will reduce POPs Sunday afternoon but keep a minimal
chance late in the afternoon as pre-frontal convection may slide
into the western portions of the forecast area. Once again,
strong warm air advection will take place Sunday and expecting
similar highs for Sunday as today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold frontal timing has slowed some as a wave develops and moves
along the front Sunday night. Have continued to only mention a
slight chance of thunder with the showers with unfavorable timing
and meager instability at best. If the front does drag its heels
then have a small chance for some thunder Monday afternoon across
eastern OH. Have lingered a slight chance of a shower across the
snowbelt into Tuesday with the trough aloft, but at this point
moisture seems limited. The ridge builds at the surface and aloft
later Tuesday across the Ohio Valley. Sunday night/Monday`s cold
front will take temperatures back closer to normal for the early
part of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of the upper support passes well north of the area with the
next cold front timed to make its way across the area early
Thursday. Moisture is somewhat limited and have reserved precip
chances to around 30 percent. The temperature change is not
significant either as the pattern becomes temporarily zonal. The
beginnings of the next warm up may start as early as Friday with
return flow and a building mid-Mississippi Valley ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
An upper level disturbance will move east across the area today.
This feature will produce some very widely scattered showers
across the southern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise,
other main issue is the possibility for some fog developing this
morning. Expecting it to be very patchy and should not affect
the terminals extensively. Rest of the day should remain VFR
with light variable winds into tonight.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms Sunday
night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light on the lake today with high pressure still
the primary weather contributer. Could get afternoon onshore
component across the east end nearshore waters. Sunday the gradient
increases as a cold front makes its way across the Great Lakes.
Southwest wind increase to 10 to 20 knots making the waters just
offshore choppy. The front crosses the lake Sunday night/early
Monday and as the winds funnel along the length of the lake expect
the need for a Small Craft Advisory Sunday night that will carry
into and through Monday. A little less certain about if the
northwest winds remain elevated enough Monday night to maintain 4
foot plus waves. By Tuesday nigh pressure has positioned itself
across the Ohio Valley and winds/waves will diminish/subside and
back to the southwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Oudeman