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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190706
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 AM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Great Lakes and upper Midwest will drift
southeast across the Ohio valley today into Monday. Monday night
low pressure will move northeast out of Iowa and move through
the central Great Lakes Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build southeast across the region today and
through tonight. The high will weaken its grip on the region
Monday as it drifts northeast away from New England. Expecting
plenty of sun today. Monday should begin sunny to partly cloudy
with clouds increasing from the west through the afternoon as
moisture ahead of the low moves into the area. Did bring in a
slight chance pop to grids far west late afternoon but on
balance expect a dry day for most if not all. Highs today mostly
around 80.  Highs Monday lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The focus of the short term period is precip chances as fairly
strong low pressure over the mid Mississippi valley tracks northeast
into the central Great Lakes by Tuesday morning and into southern
Quebec by Wednesday. Only minor changes made to the forecast during
the period, with models in fairly good agreement with the overall
pattern. Minor differences still exist with timing/onset of precip,
as strong moisture return and decent isentropic lift moves into the
region ahead of the low Monday night. Have opted to continue likely
pops after 06Z Tuesday, and low end cat pops progressing west to
east during the day on Tuesday as the attendant cold front pushes
east through the area. Pops will generally diminish from west to east
across the area Tuesday night, but have lingered pops through
Wednesday, especially across northeast OH/northwest PA, as a
secondary cold front pushes south through the area along with some
mid level energy. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday
night with dry conditions prevailing. No big changes to temps
through the period, with seasonable conditions ahead of the front
through Tuesday, then below normal temps Wednesday and Wednesday
night behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fairly quiet long term expected as a large area of high pressure
over the region Thursday builds east into New England Friday and off
the Atlantic coast on Saturday. This will keep conditions dry across
the region through at least Friday night. Models are in fairly good
agreement with a northern stream wave kicking east through the
northern Great Lakes and bringing a trailing cold front
towards/through the area Saturday/Saturday night, so have opted for
slight chance pops late Friday night and Saturday. A modest warming
trend is expected into the weekend with below normal highs Thursday
warming into the low 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Conditions VFR at TAF time as high pressure and drier air build
in from the north. Only concern would be the potential for
patchy MVFR fog around sunrise mainly away from the lake. Went
ahead and gave inland tafs a tempo MVFR visibility with morning
fog but otherwise expect VFR conditions to persist through the
day.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected today through Monday with high pressure
over the lakes, with east/northeast winds generally 10-15 kts or
less. Winds will veer southerly Monday night as strong low pressure
moves northeast into the central lakes by Tuesday morning. Southerly
winds around 20 kts are expected Tuesday ahead of a cold front, with
winds veering quickly, northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday at 20-
25 kts. This will almost certainly bring small craft advisory
conditions, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Northwest/northerly winds will slowly diminish Wednesday and
Wednesday night as high pressure builds across the lakes, with light
winds slowly backing southerly by Friday as the ridge axis passes to
the east of the lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt