Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 220212 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 912 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight and Friday. Strong low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Saturday and will track through the Great Lakes Sunday. This will lift a warm front north through the area late Saturday followed quickly by a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build across the region Monday and Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Update...Cirrus will likely hold temps up a degree or two from forecast lows so nudged lows up mostly into the mid 20s. Also added more clouds into the overnight hours. For Friday clouds will likely thin as the morning wears on so decreased clouds through the morning to the original pc forecast. Original...Fairly quiet near term period as a ridge currently extending from the northern Plains into the lower Ohio valley builds east across the region tonight and tomorrow. Some high clouds will stream northward into the area tonight from low pressure across the southern US, otherwise conditions will remain dry with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Lows will drop into the low/mid 20s. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, with upper 30s near the lake where onshore flow persists, and low/mid 40s away from the lake. Cloud cover will increase Friday night as a warm front lifts north towards the area. Precip will approach the area as well, but should hold off across the local area until early Saturday morning. Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Large broad upper level ridge will be present over the eastern half of the United States Saturday. Meanwhile, negatively tilted trough will set-up over the Plains states with an upper level low pressure system at the base of the trough. The trough and associated upper level low pressure system will lift northeast across the Great Lakes region Saturday night. Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will take place at the base of the trough Friday night into Saturday and the resultant low will rapidly intensify by Saturday evening. The will practically bomb out as it moves into the Great Lakes setting-up strong warm air advection Saturday into Saturday night. Expecting now that temperatures will warm through the day Saturday and continue to warm Saturday night as a surge of warm air moves north ahead of the cold front. Models have been advertising some fairly strong winds expected across the area late Saturday night into Sunday. The strong winds will remain aloft early Saturday night as a fairly strong inversion develops. Due to the developing potential for instability across the local area in the warm air advection Saturday night, there is the possibility for showers and even some thunderstorms that will develop along a pre-cold frontal trough. There is the possibility that we could see some strong damaging winds with the thunderstorms as they tap into the 60 knots plus just above the surface. The Storm Prediction Center has the southwest portion of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. Then, by Sunday morning, the inversion will begin to break down as cold air advection takes place. This will allow the stronger winds to mix down to the surface and there is the possibility that we will need some sort of high wind headline by Sunday into Sunday night. Model soundings support the strong winds mixing to the surface across the entire forecast area during this time period. As the deep low pressure system moves northeast of the area Sunday, the cold air advection will take place and transition any rain over to snow. Some wrap around moisture will pull into northwest Ohio and then the rest of the northern portions of the area during the day Sunday. Snow showers will gradually end over the northeast snowbelt Monday with fair weather over the rest of the forecast area Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... After a massive bomb hits the Great Lakes over the weekend, the trend is headed toward the flow becoming more tranquil and nearly zonal flow setting up aloft Monday night and Tuesday. Amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday night and it will remain nearly stationary through Thursday. Unfortunately, the final response will be slowly deepening of a broad upper level trough over the eastern three fourths of the lower 48 states. This trend will send gradually cooler air into the forecast area but should for the most part allow high pressure ridge at the surface to extend southeast into the southeastern part of the country through the end of the week. Low pressure is expected to move east across central Canada and force a weak cold front east across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Conditions will remain VFR through the night as high level moisture overspreads the area from the southwest. By Friday morning this high level moisture will be shifting south. Conditions will remain VFR through Friday. OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible Saturday/Sunday with strong southwest to west winds possible Sunday. && .MARINE... Big changes coming to the lake in the weather department as a massive low pressure is expected to develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle and move northeast toward the region Saturday and Saturday night. The low will rapidly intensify as it reaches the Great Lakes resulting in increasing winds Saturday night and continuing through Monday morning. There is a high likelihood for gale force winds on the lake Saturday night into Monday morning with gusts to 55 knots possible. There is also the possibility that winds could approach storm force by Sunday after a strong cold front moves east across the lake. Once the low pressure system moves eat of Lake Erie Sunday and Monday, winds will gradually diminish on the lake from west to east and become light and variable by Tuesday. Not only will winds be a problem over the weekend but the potential for lower water issues exists as well on the western basin of the lake. Significant ice floe movement is expected over the weekend in the strong winds. There is a high potential for ridging and rafting of the ice in the strong winds and mariners should be alert that tracks will not hold. Latest satellite imagery is showing some shifting of the ice already on the lake with numerous gaps opening up as a result of the brisk winds today. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/TK SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...TK MARINE...Lombardy

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