Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 231120 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 720 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the northwest will cross the area today. High pressure will build in behind the front for Wednesday and remain in place for much of the rest of the week. A pair of systems will then surround the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No changes to the forecast with the 630 am update this morning. Previous Discussion... A cold front approaching from the northwest will cross the lake this morning and quickly move southeast of the area. For the most part, the frontal passage will be dry as the low levels of the atmosphere are fairly dry ahead of the front. The lone exception will be areas downwind of Lake Erie in the snow belt of NW PA and extreme NE Ohio, where there is a bit better moisture. The cooler airmass moving over the warmer waters of Lake Erie will modify the airmass and allow for some lake effect showers through the day today in the snow belt. Tough to give much more than a brief period of likely pops this afternoon in far NW PA as convection will be scattered at best. The will be some instability with help from the lake so have kept a brief period of a thunder mention and there will be a chance for waterspouts on the far east end of Lake Erie. Temperatures will be cooler than Monday with the early cold front passage this morning. Lake effect rain showers will continue into tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Precipitation chances may briefly increase as there could be some additional moisture assistance from Lake Huron. Through the overnight hours, low level winds will slightly shift around from the northwest to the north and the highest chance for precipitation will pivot from NW PA into NE Ohio. As temperatures cool, can certainly see the occasional snowflake mixed in with the rain, but surface temperatures are still too warm for snow accumulation. For Wednesday, drier air with the surface high will push in from the west and eventually squash the lake effect. Temperatures will struggle on Wednesday with temperatures in the 40s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will build east across the region through the short term before moving north into Quebec. This will bring a quiet stretch of weather with dry conditions expected through the day on Friday. Stratocu clouds will linger off Lake Erie across portions of NE Ohio Wednesday night, gradually clearing though the day on Thursday just as high clouds arrive from the west. Locations inland and across NW Ohio that clear out on Wednesday night will be much cooler and may dip into the upper 20s while areas with clouds will be in the mid to upper 30s. Gradual warming will occur each day as the airmass moderates but will be slow with only gradual warm advection. By Friday a trough moving out of the Plains will move into the Ohio Valley. Clouds will thicken and lower through the day with low level isentropic ascent developing late in the day. Given the dry airmass preceding this system will keep the forecast dry until Friday night when a chance of showers expands north into the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will develop along the East Coast on Friday and track north towards New York Saturday into Sunday. The easterly flow on the north side of the surface low will pull moisture westward from the Atlantic. Scattered showers are possible Friday night through Saturday, with lake enhancement off Lake Erie developing by Sunday as the flow shifts around to the west. Temperatures will drop back a few degrees over the weekend with clouds and scattered showers. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A cold front is approaching the area this morning and will bring variable flight conditions later today. Ahead of the front, conditions are VFR with southwesterly winds. Once the front clears the area, winds will flip around to the northwest and some lower ceilings will move into the region. In the snow belt area of NW PA and NE Ohio, there will be the chance for lake effect rain today, especially around the KERI area. As flow continues out of the northwest, ceilings will lower later in the day and MVFR may be possible early Wednesday with some residual lake clouds. High pressure building in will keep conditions dry for Wednesday through much of the end of the week. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible across NE Ohio and NW PA on Wednesday. && .MARINE... A cold front extends across Lower Michigan from low pressure over Lake Huron. This cold front will move east across Lake Erie this morning with an abrupt increase and shift to the northwest for winds. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots and have expanded the Small Craft Advisory from Reno Beach eastward. The Advisory will only be in effect through this afternoon west of Vermilion but will remain in effect into Wednesday to the east. Winds will peak through midday but will remain in the 15-20 knot range across most of the lake tonight, then gradually decreasing on Wednesday. Generally good marine conditions expected Wednesday night into Friday as high pressure builds east into the Great Lakes with winds 15 knots or less. Easterly winds of 10-20 knots can be expected through the first part of the weekend with high pressure north of the lakes and low pressure tracking up the East Coast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ143- 144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC

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