Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 092347 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 747 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide into the Ohio Valley tonight and remain in place Saturday before exiting off the east coast Saturday night. This will allow low pressure to develop over the Mississippi Valley Saturday night and Sunday and slowly move across the region through Tuesday. High pressure returns by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The cu field has dissipated in Ohio with cloud cover in Pennsylvania slowly eroding from west to east. Have removed any lingering mention of showers in the far east given continued dry low level air and only weak echos appearing on radar in eastern Erie and Crawford counties. Previous discussion...As of mid afternoon, the old closed low was still pinwheeling over New England embedded within deep mid/upper longwave troughing carved out across the eastern half of the country. A weak vort max and associated cold front/surface trough pushing south across eastern Lake Erie is generating a few light showers in Erie and Crawford Counties, but most of these are not reaching the ground other than occasional sprinkles due to the dry low-levels. Any leftover showers will quickly exit this evening as broad surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest slides into the Ohio Valley tonight, and the closed low begins to move out of New England. Much of the smoke/haze has cleared out of the region with nearly all ASOS sites across northern Ohio and NW PA reporting unlimited visibilities this afternoon, and expect the rest to clear out tonight as low-level flow backs more southwesterly. This will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s. A few places in far NE Ohio and NW PA may still fall into the upper 40s. The surface high will remain across the Ohio Valley and Appalachians Saturday before moving into the Mid Atlantic Saturday night. At the same time, mid/upper heights will rise Saturday and Saturday night ahead of a strong shortwave trough diving into the Upper Midwest. The right entrance region of an associated 85-90 knot H3 jet will induce weak surface low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday night as the parent mid/upper trough axis swings toward the western Great Lakes. This will set up a low and mid-level warm air advection pattern Saturday and Saturday night with highs warming into the upper 70s/low 80s Saturday and lows staying in the upper 50s/low 60s Saturday night. Clouds will increase Saturday night as mid- level moisture advection and isentropic ascent increase, but slowed down the onset of PoPs due to the very dry antecedent low-levels causing dew points to be slow to rise out of the 40s. Only put slight chance PoPs in NW Ohio toward sunrise Sunday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level trough, turned closed upper low, moves south towards the Great Lakes region, meandering across the central Great Lakes through Monday night. At the surface, low pressure over the mid- Mississippi Valley lifts northeast across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Moisture advection ahead of the low will lead to modest moisture content available with the right entrance region of an 80-90 knot upper- level jet and associated upper low producing substantial forcing for ascent. Model guidance continues to support an areawide beneficial rainfall for the region, with this forecast iteration continuing a period of 80-90% PoPs for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Timing of the system is just a touch quicker than previously forecast, with precip shifting into the Sunday afternoon period, and less precipitation expected on Monday, though still expecting most of the rainfall to fall overnight Sunday night. QPF didn`t change too much with most of the area generally expecting around a half inch, with ensemble guidance forecasting the lowest QPF for northwest Ohio (mean of around 0.3") and highest QPF for eastern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania (closer to 0.5-0.75"). By Monday, there is a split in ensemble guidance, though most members are having the main low become occluded as it continues eastward away from the Great Lakes, while a secondary low moves north into southern Ontario and then retrogrades back west to lower Michigan, becoming vertically stacked with the upper low. Meanwhile, a dry slot is likely to develop behind the departing primary low, resulting in gradually decreasing sky cover and lower PoPs for Monday and Monday night for this forecast period. Below normal temperatures (by around 5-8 degrees) moves into the region on Monday and Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper low, makes eastward progress across the region on Tuesday, bringing rain showers and anomalously cool temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold temperatures aloft may allow for enough instability for isolated afternoon thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday. A weakly forced regime ensues, with a good deal of uncertainty with the forecast for Wednesday through Friday. Generally low PoPs and slightly below normal temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Good aviation conditions with VFR expected through the TAF cycle as low levels of the atmosphere remain dry. Skies will tend to clear aside from scattered high clouds overnight and Saturday. Northwest winds will become light and variable before developing out of the southwest overnight into Saturday. Winds on Saturday afternoon will be in the 7-12 knot range. A lake breeze with wind shift to the west is expected at CLE/ERI in the 15-18Z range. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... Weak high pressure slides southeast to the Atlantic coast this weekend, with weak southwest flow persisting across Lake Erie. Low pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley lifts northeast to south of Lake Erie on Sunday, and then northward across eastern Lake Erie into southern Ontario Sunday night into Monday. This will result in rapidly changing cyclonic flow, with winds generally easterly in advanced of the low Sunday evening, becoming north Sunday night, then west by Monday. There may be periods of wind approaching or reaching 20 knots, and thus it`s possible a small craft advisory may be needed, though there still exists a great deal of uncertainty in the evolution of the low pressure system and associated winds. West to southwest winds continue through Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...KEC/Garuckas SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Saunders is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.