Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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952 FXUS61 KCLE 210139 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build northeast over the eastern United States and linger through tonight. A cold front will move south across the area Sunday. High pressure will build east out of the middle Mississippi Valley region Tuesday to the Ohio Valley by Wednesday with below average temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Line of whats left of thunderstorms arrived into the area and remains a bit active over the eastern portions of the area. The line weakened over the west. Will keep a chance to likely POPs over the east this evening and then taper it off. Reduced POPs to chance in the west. Temperatures continue to cool at this time due to the rain and now that sun has set. Previous Discussion... Immediate term forecast remains conditional and uncertain, as a long lived MCS moving into western MI seems to be tracking southeast towards the area. As the past few days, hi res guidance has been poor with handling the ongoing convection, slow to assimilate the current radar trends. Environmentally, favorable conditions exist downstream of the MCS towards the region, so would anticipate that the precipitation will make it into the area in some form after 00Z. The question is if the MCS will be able to maintain a good cold pool/shear balance to capitalize on the highly unstable environment that awaits ahead of it. If the storms intensify tracking into southeast MI over the next few hours, confidence would greatly increase in strong to possible severe thunderstorms making into the northwest part of the forecast area this evening, with damaging winds the primary threat. For now, have upped pops into the mid chance range, but may need another upward adjustment with the early evening update depending on the radar trend at that point. The convection should diminish overnight across the area, and have diminished pops after 06Z across the area. Synoptic front will push south into the area late overnight into tomorrow morning. Models are trending redevelopment of shower/storms across the southern part of the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, highlighted by the SPC Day 2 marginal risk. Temperatures will cool a bit behind the front across the area, although highs may reach the lower 90s across the southern part of the forecast area. The lingering high dewpoints will combine with the temps to produce heat indices near 100. Will hold off on extending any heat headline for Sunday at this point, with a good bit of uncertainty with how the potential evening/overnight convection impacts the southward movement of the synoptic front and the temperature recovery tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The main upper trough axis pushes through on Monday and takes the frontal boundary away from the region. Will still need precip chances mentioned for Monday with the upper trough, but conditions will improve from northwest to southeast as the day progresses. Temperatures will actually be a touch below normal with mid/upper 70s expected. Dewpoints, although already stepped down from what they were over the weekend, will continue to drop and reach very comfortable 50s for Tuesday. Have 20 percent chances of a shower both Tuesday and Wednesday with the general troughiness and cool air aloft. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The high shifts overhead mid week and then east late week. Will have fair weather and temperatures that will slowly warm through the end of the week. The next front arrives over the weekend or early next week. At this point will just have precip chances entering the picture Saturday night. So by Saturday have temperatures back into the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... A line of thunderstorms continues to move southeast toward the area and is about to enter Lucas County. The line appears to be weakening with time as it approaches the region as the outflow boundary is outrunning the thunderstorms. Gusty winds to 30 to 40 knots possible with the gust front so be alert for that. A secondary round of thunderstorms will follow the main line and will have to be monitored for severe threat. A cluster of thunderstorms developed over Geauga County and will move east toward the Youngstown terminal. It should quiet down later tonight and then as cold front approaches tomorrow, another threat for showers and thunderstorms can be expected in the morning. Shower and thunderstorm threat diminishes in the afternoon with improving conditions. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Storms will precede the cold front tonight and diminish during the day Sunday as the front slowly sags southward. Winds will shift to the north and make the lake a bit choppy, especially Monday. We may not reach Small Craft Criteria, but it may be close. Northerly flow will continue through mid week with high pressure centered just west of the Great Lakes. The high will shift across Lake Erie for the latter half of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.