Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210811 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front over the local area will continue to move northeast of the region today. A ridge of high pressure will extend northeast along the Atlantic Coast and affect the local area through Sunday. A cold front will move east across the region Monday morning. High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and will extend a ridge north over the local area. Another cold front will move southeast across the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level shortwave and associated positive vorticity advection continue to move east across the area at this time. A few very widely scattered showers continue to move east over the western portions of the forecast area in association with the upper level trough. The upper level feature is expected to move east of the region today. A warm front will lift northeast across the region this afternoon ushering in some warmer air to the region. The warm air advection will likely help boost temperatures a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Some clouds in the area should have little effect on temperatures today. Tonight will see upper level short wave move well east of the area allowing upper level ridge to build east over the region. Fairly strong warm air advection will take place tonight with the ridge in place. I may be undercutting actual low temperatures for tonight and they may need to be adjusted upward a bit as gradient begins to tighten up and winds will increase a tad during the night. This should help keep things mixed enough to prevent colder pockets from developing. Otherwise, should remain dry through the night. Upper level ridge shifts slightly further east Sunday allowing upper level trough to shift east toward the Great Lakes region. A surface low pressure system will develop along a cold front that will approach the area. It appears the front will slow in forward motion Sunday and result in pulling back on POPs during the day. I will reduce POPs Sunday afternoon but keep a minimal chance late in the afternoon as pre-frontal convection may slide into the western portions of the forecast area. Once again, strong warm air advection will take place Sunday and expecting similar highs for Sunday as today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The cold frontal timing has slowed some as a wave develops and moves along the front Sunday night. Have continued to only mention a slight chance of thunder with the showers with unfavorable timing and meager instability at best. If the front does drag its heels then have a small chance for some thunder Monday afternoon across eastern OH. Have lingered a slight chance of a shower across the snowbelt into Tuesday with the trough aloft, but at this point moisture seems limited. The ridge builds at the surface and aloft later Tuesday across the Ohio Valley. Sunday night/Monday`s cold front will take temperatures back closer to normal for the early part of the work week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most of the upper support passes well north of the area with the next cold front timed to make its way across the area early Thursday. Moisture is somewhat limited and have reserved precip chances to around 30 percent. The temperature change is not significant either as the pattern becomes temporarily zonal. The beginnings of the next warm up may start as early as Friday with return flow and a building mid-Mississippi Valley ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... An upper level disturbance will move east across the area today. This feature will produce some very widely scattered showers across the southern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, other main issue is the possibility for some fog developing this morning. Expecting it to be very patchy and should not affect the terminals extensively. Rest of the day should remain VFR with light variable winds into tonight. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light on the lake today with high pressure still the primary weather contributer. Could get afternoon onshore component across the east end nearshore waters. Sunday the gradient increases as a cold front makes its way across the Great Lakes. Southwest wind increase to 10 to 20 knots making the waters just offshore choppy. The front crosses the lake Sunday night/early Monday and as the winds funnel along the length of the lake expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory Sunday night that will carry into and through Monday. A little less certain about if the northwest winds remain elevated enough Monday night to maintain 4 foot plus waves. By Tuesday nigh pressure has positioned itself across the Ohio Valley and winds/waves will diminish/subside and back to the southwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Oudeman

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