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826
FXUS61 KCLE 221323
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
923 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across the area this morning.
High pressure briefly returns tonight into early Sunday before low
pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes and sweeps a cold
front across the local area Sunday night. A ridge will gradually
build east towards the region behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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9:30 AM Update...
Coverage of rain showers has steadily been increasing over the
past couple hours near the cold front that is currently over
Lake Erie. Should continue to an uptick in rain showers east of
I-71 over the next couple hours before it quickly diminished
this afternoon/evening.

Previous Discussion...
An upper trough and its accompanying cold front will cross the
area this morning. As of about 330 AM EDT, a pre-frontal
shortwave is making its way across the area with showers present
on radar. However, dew point depressions are quite high so
precipitation is not making it to the surface. PoPs have been
limited to slight chance through at least 09Z before moisture
and lift likely increase near the cold front. Currently thinking
that the best chance of precipitation will lie along and east
of the I-71 corridor with PoPs peaking across NE OH/NW PA as
lake-enhanced showers develop in response to cold air advection
on the back side of the cold front.

There may be just enough instability/lift and cold air aloft
for some convective showers with the cold front this morning
which could produce small hail/graupel and mix down some gusty
winds. The strong cold air advection behind the cold front will
most likely result in rain mixing with or transitioning to snow
mid to late morning into this afternoon, but any lake-enhanced
rain/snow showers will quickly taper off as high pressure begins
to build into the region. Do not anticipate any significant snow
accumulation outside of a layer of slush on grassy and elevated
surfaces if any moderate to heavy snowfall rates manage to
develop. It will also be quite breezy through this afternoon
with wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph likely.

A ridge will briefly build over the region tonight into early
Sunday before the next system approaches for the end of the
weekend. An upper trough will dig into the Midwest on Sunday and
a shortwave will lift across the CWA ahead of the trough,
resulting in increasing precip chances from the west from
roughly 18Z onward. Rain should be the predominant precip type,
but a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out if the timing of onset
trends earlier. Rain will likely spread as far east as the I-77
corridor and possibly the OH/PA border by the end of the near
term period. After a brief period of light winds tonight into
Sunday morning, winds will once again ramp up with south to
southeast gusts to 25 to 35 mph likely along and east of I-71
likely Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening.

Highs will reach the lower 40s today and temps will likely peak
early across NE OH and especially NW PA due to cold air
advection off of Lake Erie; temps in this area will most likely
tank into the low to mid 30s by this afternoon. Radiational
cooling will be relatively efficient tonight with lows in the
low to mid 20s anticipated across the majority of the area. By
Sunday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper
40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level dry slot wraps into the system on Sunday night with
precipitation ending from west to east. The cold front arrives
overnight but cold advection strengthens during the day on Monday.
Mixing heights look to reach around 5-6K feet on Monday which should
allow us to tap into winds of 30-40 knots at 850mb. The strongest
winds are expected in NW Ohio where we could approach Wind Advisory
criteria. The wind shift with the front is gradual, only shifting
from southwest to westerly. Southern areas may be able to hit 50
degrees by midday while northern sites peak in the mid 40s then fall
a few degrees during the afternoon. The cold front on Monday will
lack moisture and some models maintain very dry air above 850mb.
Have held onto a low chance of showers during the afternoon but
these may struggle to materialize. Low pressure will move northeast
into Quebec on Monday night with a ridge building in at the surface
for Tuesday. Temperatures are generally within a few degrees of
normal through the short term.

Confidence in the forecast decreases by Tuesday night as the next
shortwave dives southeast out of Canada. The Canadian model is
stronger with this feature and develops a low that tracks east
across Lake Erie Tuesday night. This stronger wave would bring
precipitation to the area but is an outlier. The ECMWF depicts a
weaker wave that passes closer to the Ohio Valley and the GFS is
both faster and even farther south. Given the uncertainty kept pops
low for Tuesday night and will monitor pattern evolution over the
next couple cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level trough axis is expected to deepen east of the area
on Wednesday with heights climbing through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will start out near to slightly below normal on
Wednesday and warm into the 50s and 60s by Friday.

Surface high pressure expands east into the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night then builds to the southeast through Thursday. While return
moisture may attempt to reach the area as early as Thursday night or
Friday with the warm front, better chances of rain may hold off
until the trough lifting out of the southern Plains
approaches the area over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Cold front will track southeast across the area this evening and
there will likely be a period of MVFR ceilings along and just
behind the front. At this point, precipitation chances ahead of
the front are low due to quite a bit of dry air in the lower
levels, but there`s still a decent chance of rain/snow showers
at KERI/KYNG and possibly KCLE/KCAK (depending on how far west
any lake-enhanced showers develop) this morning and possibly
into early this afternoon. There`s still a low-end chance that
rain could mix with and transition to snow if precip lingers
into this afternoon, but not confident enough in the
placement/overall probability of wintry precipitation to include
in the TAFs at this point. Pockets of MVFR vsbys are possible
in precipitation this morning and early afternoon. Any non- VFR
ceilings will improve to VFR by no later than 18-21Z this
afternoon and expect VFR to persist through the remainder of the
TAF period.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front this
morning through this evening. Expect sustained winds at around 12
to 16 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25 knots through early
this evening. Brief and isolated wind gusts as high as 30 knots
cannot be ruled out through this afternoon, primarily at KERI
and KFDY. Winds will diminish below 10 knots after 00Z and
become light and variable at most locations by 03-06Z Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain
and/or snow showers Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push south across Lake Erie this morning with
winds shifting from southwesterly at 15-25 knots to northwesterly.
Wave heights will increase rapidly behind the front later this
morning as the flow becomes onshore with waves of 4 to 7 feet east
of the Islands. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the
nearshore waters through 4 PM, then continuing east of the Islands
through this evening.

High pressure with improving conditions builds overhead tonight then
quickly shifts east on Sunday as the next system moves into the
Upper Midwest. Southerly winds ramp up to 15-20 knots on Lake Erie
as a warm front lifts to near the Lake Sunday evening, shifting to
southwesterly at 20-30 knots behind a cold front on Monday. Water
levels will fall behind the front and will need to monitor for low
water conditions on the western basin of Lake Erie. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed again from Monday through Tuesday
morning. Ridging builds over the lake later Tuesday with improving
conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10