Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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501 FXUS61 KCLE 122306 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 706 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and crosses the area on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in for Monday into Tuesday. A warm front lifts northeast across the region by Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Shower and storm potential ahead of a cold front that will cross on Sunday is the main focus for the near term period. We are also dealing with hot and humid conditions this afternoon ahead of and outside of any showers and storms, with temperatures in the lower 90s combining with dew points near or just above 70 to push peak heat index values into the mid to upper 90s. An old gravity wave is pushing across the I-75 corridor during the 1 PM hour and has sparked a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. There is an outflow boundary farther to the west, with a subtle wind shift and notable airmass change, nearing the IN/OH border which may act as a second trigger in Northwest OH a later this afternoon. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are developing ahead of this feature across central OH and lifting northeast. The line currently evolving across Northwest OH will likely progress east through early this evening. With weak shear and forcing, organization and intensity may eventually decrease with time if outflow starts running too far out ahead of the updrafts. The more isolated activity develop ahead of this feature will likely continue to work northeast, with an eventual decrease in intensity as it starts pushing into PA. Will also watch for renewed activity to develop over eastern Indiana/far Northwest OH, which would carry east-northwest into our Northwest OH counties into this evening. This may be aided by a shortwave evident over IL on satellite and water vapor this afternoon, adding a bit of forcing this evening across Northwest OH. The long story short is that the line currently pushing across the I-75 corridor in the 1 PM hour and activity lifting out of Central OH ahead of it will be the main feature to watch this afternoon/early evening. We`ll also watch for additional activity to develop and spread into Northwest OH from the west/southwest into this evening, but with somewhat lower confidence given ongoing convection working over the airmass. POPs are highest across Northwest and North Central OH through this evening, with some windows of likely (60-70%) wording. POPs gradually decrease to the east but are mentioned in the forecast everywhere with 30-50% wording everywhere except for eastern portions of Erie/Crawford PA. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening remains from the Storm Prediction Center from roughly Cleveland to Mt Vernon points west, with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) east of there including all but eastern Erie and Crawford Co`s in PA. The main concern today will be damaging winds from microbursts, owing to weak forcing/shear and poor mid-level lapse rates, offset by moderate CAPE (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE), well-mixed low-levels, fairly high PWATs, and decent DCAPE (800-1100 J/KG). Stronger pulse cells, or clusters that are associated with more organized cold pools, will be watched for this potential. Localized rain amounts of a quick 1-2" may cause isolated minor flooding in prone areas. Activity is expected to largely wane after sunset, though the cold front sagging in from the northwest and weak shortwave moving through the southern Great Lakes could keep some isolated activity going along the front overnight, especially as it moves over the warm waters of Lake Erie during the pre-dawn. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 70s. The cold front continues progressing through on Sunday. This looks like a loosely organized frontal zone, with a couple of wind shifts and airmass changes. One such wind shift/airmass change will push southeast out of Northwest OH and off of Lake Erie in the morning and exit to our southeast during the early afternoon. This initial boundary may spark showers/storms over and downwind of Lake Erie early Sunday that gradually push inland through early afternoon, with coverage likely increasing across far eastern OH and inland Northwest PA before exiting. A secondary wind shift and airmass change will drop in from the northwest during the afternoon and exit during the evening, likely sparking at least isolated shower/storm development as it does so. Overall large scale forcing will be minimal on Sunday outside of the loose frontal boundary, with weak subsidence actually in place behind tonight`s shortwave that will be departing to our east on Sunday. Still hang on to POPs of some sort outside of the Toledo area on Sunday, though did lower them some from prior forecasts and limited likely (60-70%) wording to extreme eastern OH and interior Northwest PA, with 50% or lower farther west. Concern for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall on Sunday is minimal at this point. Highs on Sunday will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with dew points hanging in the upper 60s and lower 70s until late day or evening. Isolated showers/storms may take until late Sunday evening to completely exit the Mt Vernon-Youngstown corridor, though a mainly dry night is otherwise expected. Lows will get into the 60s with dew points cooling several degrees as well. Some patchy valley fog could develop by early Monday as weak high pressure starts nosing in. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A generally quiet Monday and Tuesday are expected with a decent amount of sunshine. Weak high pressure will slide across the southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday as our front stalls south of the Ohio River. There may be just enough lingering moisture for weak CAPE to develop Monday afternoon, leading to a small pop-up shower/storm risk. Odds of rain in any given location are <20% so no mentionable POPs, but may need to monitor the Central Highlands region for a stray shower or storm Monday afternoon. Moisture begins returning on Tuesday, which should allow for some CAPE to develop during the afternoon, particularly across our southwestern counties. Forcing remains minimal as heights rise aloft, so kept POPs in the 10-20% range which won`t get a forecast mention yet on "day 3". It will be warm Monday and Tuesday with highs on Monday generally in the mid-upper 80s with highs Tuesday dialing up a bit more, ranging from the mid 80s to around 90. Overnight lows should mainly dip into the 60s Monday night, with slightly warmer lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night. Dew points will be more pleasant on Monday, generally in the low to mid 60s. Moisture increases slightly on Tuesday, though we should hold of the 70+ degree stuff for one more day... && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Relatively unsettled weather is expected for the second half of the work week. Ridging will push into the area Tuesday into Wednesday before getting shunned to the south and southeast through the end of the week as troughing gradually builds into the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. A warm front will lift across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a cold front approaching on Thursday and likely crossing Thursday night or Friday. High pressure may try briefly sliding through on Saturday, though by then we`re in a faster/more zonal pattern and model agreement isn`t great, so confidence in specifics is low. Have chances for showers/storms on Wednesday, increasing to likely wording Thursday afternoon as the front approaches. POPs linger into Friday as the front pushes through. Saturday is currently favored to be rain-free across much of the area, though confidence isn`t extremely high yet. It will turn very muggy starting Wednesday, with dew points likely breaching 70F on Wednesday and staying near or above 70F until the front crosses. Highs will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, modulated by timing and coverage of any showers/storms. A return to more normal temperatures and lower humidity is expected behind the front into the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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The main aviation message for this TAF update will be VFR conditions. There are some widely scattered showers and storms out there this evening which should slowly come to an end by 03z. We have mentioned VCTS for MFD and FDY until about 03z. After this evening convection ends, the rest of the period should be mainly VFR. There could be some light MVFR fog of 5sm between 09z and 12z at FDY, MFD, and TOL or areas that saw rainfall today. Widely scattered convection could be possible again on Sunday afternoon around MFD, CAK, YNG, and ERI. Due to uncertainty of timing and coverage, we have left it out of the TAF forecast at this time. Winds will be generally from the south or southwest 4 to 9 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR with patchy fog or low ceilings will be possible Sunday night and Monday night, especially for inland areas away from Lake Erie. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE... Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are generally expected to be generally 10 knots or less into mid-next week. Winds may briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift towards the west tonight into Sunday as a cold front moves east across the lake. This could usher in some 2-footers across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Sullivan SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...Kahn