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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231913
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the area this evening. High
pressure from the northern Plains will build east across the
region on Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday then
sink south again on Sunday keeping the weather across the region
warm but unsettled through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mixed layer CAPES running 500-1000J/kg across the area with the
most unstable air just to our southwest. High resolution
forecasts show this instability growing northeast into the
southern and southeastern counties and then shifting southeast
as the front moves through. Also watching the area of cu
development which so far has been capped but shows the most
unstable air. The HRRR continues its trend of not really
developing convection in the area through the evening. Don`t
completely trust it however so for the late afternoon and early
evening will continue with chance pops there. Dry elsewhere.
Overnight and Friday high pressure builds in. Friday night
models show the front returning as a warm front, driven north by
low pressure moving into the western lakes. Models show
increasing mid level rh across the area in the isentropic lift
of moist southwest flow. Will have chance pops showers
developing/drifting into the area from the north, mainly after
midnight. Highs friday from the upper 60s north to mid 70s
south.




&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We will have a very Spring like day on Saturday and most of the
weekend with a deep southwesterly flow both at the surface and alot
up to 500 mb. A mid level shortwave will move across the upper Great
Lakes region and an embedded impulse will be move through the west-
southwest flow at 500 mb Saturday afternoon. Moderate instablilty
along with plenty of low level moisture and deep shear through the
mid levels will support at least the potential for some severe
weather. Given the uniform shear wind profile, linear form of storm
development with strong damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
the main hazards expected. The Storm Prediction Center has the
entire area in a Day 3 slight risk outlook which looks reasonable at
this time. It appears the greatest threat time for active weather
will be late Saturday afternoon through mid evening. Storms will
lose their punch later Saturday evening and Saturday night.

A frontal boundary will sag southward into Ohio late on Sunday.
South of the boundary will destabilized with a warm and humid
airmass. Additional strong to maybe some severe storms could be
possible again south of the boundary Sunday afternoon given the
westerly shear and instability. The front clears through the area
Sunday night with slightly cooler and drier air late Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The frontal boundary drifts back northward as a warm front Monday
night with a risk for scattered showers and isolated storms if we
get a little low level trying to nose in across western Ohio. Mid
level heights rise on Tuesday with warm southwest winds. Warmer and
humid air moves back in with highs in the middle 80s and the threat
for some scattered convection in the late afternoon and evening. A
stout looking mid level shortwave will move through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region sometime Wednesday or mid week. Timing on this
feature will make a difference if we have a severe weather threat or
not for Wednesday or Wednesday evening. At this time, we will
mention at least the threat for more stormy weather mid week and
warm and breezy weather.  An upper level trough will try to start
building across the Great Lake Region by the end of the week with
slightly cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
West southwest winds will turn more westerly behind a cold front
today. Speeds should be around 15-25 knots with gusts into the
30s. Winds will diminish quickly this evening. Otherwise
conditions are VFR early this afternoon with mostly clear skies
across the region. Main concern other than the winds will be
redevelopment of convection this afternoon ahead of and along
the cold front. The instability will be there and it`s just a
question of if the front or a lingering boundary will begin the
process within the CWA or to our south. For now will have VCTS
across the southern tier of terminals through the mid/late
afternoon and monitor.  Overnight expect VFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds increased this afternoon over the lake and Small
Craft Advisories were issued for 20 to 25 knots winds and gusts up
to 35 knots. Winds will shift to more northwesterly late this
evening and over night with a decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Weak high
pressure will move over the lake Friday morning with light and
variable winds. Southeasterly winds will return Friday night into
Saturday morning with a warm front moving across the lake. Winds
will shift and increase Saturday afternoon up to 20 or 25 knots.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed again on Saturday. A cold front
will drift southward across the lake on Sunday and shift the wind to
northwesterly. High pressure will give a break in the weather for
the lake on Monday with lighter winds and waves. Strong low pressure
will move across the upper Great Lakes region on Tuesday and
Wednesday with gusty winds for Lake Erie. South-southwesterly winds
may approach 20 to 25 knots again and Small Craft Advisory
conditions may be needed again Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Griffin