Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 210508 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 108 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Iowa will move northeast to the central Great Lakes by late Tuesday afternoon. A warm front from the low will lift north across the local area tonight. The low will pass to the north of the local area tomorrow evening forcing a strong cold front across the region by early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No big changes with the mid evening update. The line of showers and thunderstorms continues to weaken and become more broken in nature as was expected. Lightning has fallen way back too. But the warm front will continue to lift north through the night and this would spark a few showers or a rumble of thunder so the forecast for the rest of tonight remains largely intact with this early evening update. Relevant portions of previous discussion follows...Most locations will see a 2 or 3 hour window of precip. By the time it reaches the eastern end of the area the line may be broken or scattered in nature. A second wave of precip will arrive in the west prior to daybreak as the surface low heads towards the area. Will need high pops all areas tomorrow but am not expecting an all day rain. Most locations will probably see 2 periods of precip during the day. Still some concern about severe weather at the east end of the area tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A lot of that will depend on how precip and cloudiness there is earlier in the day. The front will be out of the area by midnight and the precip will end from from west to east beginning in the west. By daybreak Wednesday only the eastern tip of the area could still have precip. Have stayed close to guidance for temps during the period. There will be a significant airmass change behind the front tomorrow night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will be pushing east of the area on Wednesday, with a secondary front enhancing the cold air advection expected by the evening. The thicknesses will drop notably with H850 around 9C and H500 around -17C. Despite the drier air moving in, the lake induced capes will support lake effect clouds and showers. This will bring extensive cloud cover to the downwind (NW winds) side of the lakes. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 70s as a result. Expect mainly showers though couldn`t rule out a stray thunderstorm. The high pressure will build in overnight and into Thursday. This will rapidly erode any lake effect and lead to mostly sunny conditions for Thursday. Temperatures will moderate slightly, with more warming expected Friday with the return of southerly flow. Temperatures will be primarily in the 70s with lows in the 50s for most of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The models show an upper level short wave and surface cold front moving into the region late Friday night. This cold front is forecast to slowly move across the forecast area on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Friday night through Saturday as this front moves through the region. A weak short wave will move through the upper level flow over Great Lakes region on Sunday. This will create enough lift and instability to keep showers and a few thunderstorms over the area. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Surface low over northern IL early today with moist southerly flow into northern OH. Radar showing showers and embedded thunder moving nne into northeast OH and will eventually reach into nwrn PA as well. Another area of showers/thunder will similarly move into northwestern OH affecting KFDY and KTOL terminals through the next couple hours. After that, it becomes difficult to pin down individual areas of precip/thunder but showers and thunderstorms should be expected across the region much of the period as the low moves northeast across the central Great Lakes through the day. Am expecting VFR CIGS to lower to MVFR around sunrise then lift through the morning back to VFR however any showers/thunderstorms will yield MVFR or IFR conditions. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Non-VFR possible Saturday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Conditions likely from Conneaut OH-Ripley NY. As an area of low pressure approaches the area from the west the low level jet will strengthen to around 35knots out of the southeast. With the downsloping component of the higher terrain in NW PA expect 10m winds around 20 to 25 knots with gusts around 30-35kt around Presque Isle. The southeast component will last from this evening through Tuesday morning. Once winds switch to the south mixing will be reduced and speeds will moderate to around 15-20 knots. The waves will build to around 4 feet in the near shore overnight as a result. Conditions are expected to remain just below small craft levels in the near shore on Tuesday as sw winds around 15-20 knots bring the higher waves into the open waters. As the low exits the area a cold front will move across the waters turning winds to the north for Wednesday morning. A secondary cold front with more cold air advection will kick in Wednesday evening, which when combined with fetch should result in small craft conditions. Conditions will rapidly improve as strong high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kubina NEAR TERM...Kubina/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Jamison LONG TERM...Garnet AVIATION...TK MARINE...Jamison

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