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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 231120
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
720 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the northwest will cross the area
today. High pressure will build in behind the front for
Wednesday and remain in place for much of the rest of the week.
A pair of systems will then surround the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No changes to the forecast with the 630 am update this morning.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front approaching from the northwest will cross the lake
this morning and quickly move southeast of the area. For the
most part, the frontal passage will be dry as the low levels of
the atmosphere are fairly dry ahead of the front. The lone
exception will be areas downwind of Lake Erie in the snow belt
of NW PA and extreme NE Ohio, where there is a bit better
moisture. The cooler airmass moving over the warmer waters of
Lake Erie will modify the airmass and allow for some lake effect
showers through the day today in the snow belt. Tough to give
much more than a brief period of likely pops this afternoon in
far NW PA as convection will be scattered at best. The will be
some instability with help from the lake so have kept a brief
period of a thunder mention and there will be a chance for
waterspouts on the far east end of Lake Erie. Temperatures will
be cooler than Monday with the early cold front passage this
morning.

Lake effect rain showers will continue into tonight as high
pressure builds into the region. Precipitation chances may
briefly increase as there could be some additional moisture
assistance from Lake Huron. Through the overnight hours, low
level winds will slightly shift around from the northwest to the
north and the highest chance for precipitation will pivot from
NW PA into NE Ohio. As temperatures cool, can certainly see the
occasional snowflake mixed in with the rain, but surface
temperatures are still too warm for snow accumulation. For
Wednesday, drier air with the surface high will push in from the
west and eventually squash the lake effect. Temperatures will
struggle on Wednesday with temperatures in the 40s across the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A large area of high pressure will build east across the region
through the short term before moving north into Quebec. This will
bring a quiet stretch of weather with dry conditions expected
through the day on Friday. Stratocu clouds will linger off Lake Erie
across portions of NE Ohio Wednesday night, gradually clearing
though the day on Thursday just as high clouds arrive from the west.
Locations inland and across NW Ohio that clear out on Wednesday
night will be much cooler and may dip into the upper 20s while areas
with clouds will be in the mid to upper 30s. Gradual warming will
occur each day as the airmass moderates but will be slow with only
gradual warm advection.

By Friday a trough moving out of the Plains will move into the Ohio
Valley. Clouds will thicken and lower through the day with low level
isentropic ascent developing late in the day. Given the dry airmass
preceding this system will keep the forecast dry until Friday
night when a chance of showers expands north into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will develop along the East Coast on Friday and track
north towards New York Saturday into Sunday. The easterly flow on
the north side of the surface low will pull moisture westward from
the Atlantic. Scattered showers are possible Friday night through
Saturday, with lake enhancement off Lake Erie developing by Sunday
as the flow shifts around to the west. Temperatures will drop back a
few degrees over the weekend with clouds and scattered showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A cold front is approaching the area this morning and will bring
variable flight conditions later today. Ahead of the front,
conditions are VFR with southwesterly winds. Once the front
clears the area, winds will flip around to the northwest and
some lower ceilings will move into the region. In the snow belt
area of NW PA and NE Ohio, there will be the chance for lake
effect rain today, especially around the KERI area. As flow
continues out of the northwest, ceilings will lower later in the
day and MVFR may be possible early Wednesday with some residual
lake clouds. High pressure building in will keep conditions dry
for Wednesday through much of the end of the week.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible across NE Ohio and NW PA on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front extends across Lower Michigan from low pressure over
Lake Huron. This cold front will move east across Lake Erie this
morning with an abrupt increase and shift to the northwest for
winds. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots and have
expanded the Small Craft Advisory from Reno Beach eastward. The
Advisory will only be in effect through this afternoon west of
Vermilion but will remain in effect into Wednesday to the east.
Winds will peak through midday but will remain in the 15-20 knot
range across most of the lake tonight, then gradually decreasing on
Wednesday.

Generally good marine conditions expected Wednesday night into
Friday as high pressure builds east into the Great Lakes with winds
15 knots or less. Easterly winds of 10-20 knots can be expected
through the first part of the weekend with high pressure north of
the lakes and low pressure tracking up the East Coast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ143-
     144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...KEC