Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251124 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 724 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overhead will slide to the east today. Very warm weather is in store for the long weekend. The humidity and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head through the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... ALl is well. A thin ribbon of fog in West Branch valley, but otherwise almost no fog. Should be gone in minutes. Other than some high clouds this am, we will see some cu form on the ridge tops through the day. Models continue to generate convection and even a little QPF late this aftn/eve in the SW, and move it to the east this evening/overnight. Will keep PoPs in the lowest gear for the time being, as coverage should be limited/isolated. Prev... Sfc high pressure (1021 mb) will contine to slide SE and this morning. Winds are calm under clear skies with moderate dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s. Nothing more than some patchy light valley fog is expected to form in the valleys late around daybreak. High pressure moves slowly off to our east today, eventually bringing a return southwesterly flow to central and western portions of PA this afternoon. A slight uptick in humidity will be seen over western areas, and could lead to an isolated late day shower or thunderstorm over the WC mountains and Laurels. The dryness of the boundary layer could evaporate any precip that tries to fall out. 8H temps will push into to the mid-teens and maxes will get into the 80s all over. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The ridge over us will begin to break down Friday night into Saturday. There will be some moisture however the atmosphere should be dry enough to preclude any precipitation Friday night into Saturday. Saturday should have warm moist flow as the region will be between high pressure over the Atlantic and an approaching upper level wave. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s. Mid to long range models continue to show the approaching trough swinging through the Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. With the streaming southwesterly moisture and max temps in the 80s, Saturday afternoon could see some afternoon to early evening convection. The blends and ensembles reflect this as precipitation chances continue to trend upwards. The best chance will be through the eastern half of the region. Convection should linger into Saturday evening as it moves eastward. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday into Monday will see the unsettled weather trends continue. The weak flow aloft on Sunday should limit Sunday afternoon convection to pulse storms. Memorial Day looks to be slightly cooler but humid. While there will be pops in the forecast, still uncertain exactly how wet things will turn out. The wet trend for the region will continue through next week. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... No fog at BFD so far. Unlike last night, nothing much at SEG. Thus took fog out of the BFD TAF on the 09Z set. VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region today into tonight as high pressure moves off the east coast. Wind will be light and only the deepest/coolest valleys will be in risk of having fog early this morning. Have mentioned MVFR fog at BFD, but even that is in doubt. The rest of the airfields should stay away from any more than a brief flirt with MVFR vsby. Next possibility for precip restrictions will late tonight over the west as moisture increases in SW flow. The remainder of the weekend will bring mainly scattered convection and localized restrictions. Though more widespread restrictions are possible Sunday morning. Outlook... Sat-Tue...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... It has been a wet May across much of the region. As of Midnight, Williamsport rainfall for the month has been 7.05 inches. This is the 6th wettest May on record, and we still have a few days to add to the total. The wettest May was 1919 with 9.91 inches of rainfall. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert/Tyburski SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.