Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232242
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

The NAM/WRF and NMM have have come around to solution that supports
the lack of snow accumulation, and rain or snow better tied to
actual mesoscale forcing. Rain could develop after midnight in the
western counties and become mixed with snow or change over
completely to snow toward 12 UTC. A warm ground and compaction will
prevent any significant accumulation. The best scenario for snow is
a dusting up to an inch early morning near the Colorado line as
temperatures crash where dew points are expected to be in the 20s.
The rain or rain/snow in the west will likely weaken or end i the
morning hour, but ramp up tot he south of our area in the afternoon
along the mid level frontogentic forcing - where precipitation
chance ramp up again across the south central Kansas counties in the
afternoon.

Temperatures in this forecast have been trending colder with time,
and it is possible the extreme far southwest sections of the area
(Elkhart/Johnson/Hugoton) struggle to even get into the 40s for an
afternoon high. Probabilities will linger across the south central
Kansas counties into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Deep tropospheric northerly flow will develop as the system exits
Thursday evening, and skies will rapidly clear from north to south.
Some of the MOS products are indicating colder temps, especially in
the west, with lows falling to the upper teens in areas west of
highway 83 - but even in the east, everywhere show be freezing or
colder. Only about a day and a half to two days of moderating
temperatures are expected before then next frontal boundary slides
across the region again. That will be only a precursor  to what
appears to be a more widespread and much colder airmass to invade the
northern half of the country heading into next week. At this point,
mesoscale features have little no run to run consistency and should
be disregarded for any local scale snow expectations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Breezy north winds will continue overnight with 12-15kts expected
through 05Z with gusts up to 25kts expect as the upper level
trough pushes across the CWA. Increased cloud cover with ceilings
down into the mid levels then down to 6kft with showers in the
vicinity of all but DDC with the southeast progression pushing out
of southeastern Colorado. LBL and GCK might see a trace of snow
with the VCSH but these will push out of the CWA by 09-10Z with
gusty winds out of the north expected through the entirety of the
TAF period. These winds will diminish towards the end of the
period as the aforementioned shortwave exits the region and
radiational cooling takes place under clearing skies and falling
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  29  55 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  34  43  25  56 /  30  20  10   0
EHA  33  41  28  56 /  50  40  10   0
LBL  36  43  28  55 /  30  30  10   0
HYS  37  46  24  55 /  30  20   0   0
P28  40  46  32  55 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Lowe


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