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000
FXUS63 KDMX 251730
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Upper level PV Anomaly and associated short wave energy will
continue to settle southeast today across Nebraska and Kansas. An
area of light rain has been ongoing to the southeast of this
energy including portions of west central and southwest Iowa. Dry
air has been arriving from the north and the precipitation has
eroded over the past hours. A few areas of light rain may linger
through mid morning over the far southwest before ending.
Otherwise, cooler today with high temperatures in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. The wind will be light with high pressure arriving
through the day. No significant weather tonight with lows in the
mid 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Another short wave trough will move into the area on Thursday.
Guidance trends have continued to suggest a lower threat for
precipitation associated with the system. Several factors at
play. Today`s short wave will move south into the Alabama and
Mississippi area on Thursday and this will effectively prevent any
Gulf moisture from streaming northward. This system will have a
narrow ribbon of moisture and it will be quite narrow with it
being flanked by high pressure on either side. There will still be
enough forcing coincident with period of peak saturation for a
few light showers to develop.

Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures in the 60s are forecast
for Friday. Upper ridging will move into the state over the
weekend bringing slightly warmer temperatures for Saturday
followed by a better warm advection for Sunday. Temperatures on
Sunday may need to be increased further considering the good
mixing expected. The upper ridge will begin to pass east of the
state on Monday leading to upper level southwest flow developing,
leading to a more active pattern for the end of the forecast
period. Currently have high temperatures in the 70s on Monday.
There are some signals that the low level jet will be pointing
into central Iowa during much of the day Monday with some
persistent bubbling of convection possible. Should this scenario
occur, it could limit high temperatures thus have not increased
highs any further.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Weak high pressure
will be in place through late in the TAF period.  Wind will be
northerly around 10kts through 00Z then become light and variable.
Late in the TAF period winds will increase again Thursday morning
and become westerly ahead of a cold front that will pass through the
TAF sites after the 18Z valid period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...FAB