Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 280525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1025 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

Breezy southwest winds and warmer weather will continue early this
week. Strong winds Monday late afternoon through Tuesday night as
the next system passes just to our north, keeping us dry.
Temperatures will cool briefly for Wednesday as a cold front
moves through early in the morning, but temperatures will reach
back into normal ranges for the end of the work week. Subtropical
moisture is forecasted to move into the area, keeping
 warm and brining chances for rain next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

We find ourselves in between systems this afternoon. One quick-
moving s/w is moving into the Plains while a more pronounced UL
trough is moving ashore the PacNW Coast. Weak lee troughing will
keep winds mildly breezy this afternoon and for mountain/east slope
areas overnight tonight. Morning lows should be a tad cooler tonight
too with the lighter winds as compared to last night.

As we go into Monday, the lee side low will continue to deepen while
the larger UL continues to deepen to our northwest. Flow throughout
the column will increase, which will translate to a breezy day for
the lowlands. The Mountains will even begin to near High Wind
Warning Criteria with models showing H700 flow near 50 knots over
the Sacs. A High Wind Watch begins at 21z for the Sacs. This will be
only the beginning of a typical fall wind event, which you can read
about more in the Long Term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

Monday night into early Tuesday morning, a stronger upper level
trough approaches AZ/NM. A stronger lee side trough will
strengthen a pressure gradient over the northeast part of the CWA,
with stronger winds through the column moving over the area as
well. NAM 700mb winds over the Sacramentos and Black range
increase to 55-65 mph after sunset Monday. Wind gust speeds
continue to trend up through the night in the higher elevations
areas (above 7,000ft) and east slopes of the respected mountain
ranges, with gusts forecasted to reach 70-75mph by 9 AM Tuesday.

Areas south of the northern mountain zones and lowland elevations
will see occasionally breezy winds overnight, with winds not
beginning to gust until the late morning hours on Tuesday when
mixing heights begin to rise. There is still uncertainty in the
strength of the lowland winds, as mixing heights are forecasted
to remain at or less than 5,000ft AGL Tuesday afternoon. Heights
still reach into 40-45mph winds, giving moderate chances for most
lowland areas to see occasional gusts up to 40-45 mph Tuesday
afternoon. However there is some uncertainty in model to model
output with the exact strengths. Nonetheless, Tuesday will be
gusty for most areas. Patchy blowing dusty could be seen in the
typical desert areas, however we have not seen much of that this
fall with our previous wind events.

Tuesday evening winds in the lowland areas will gradually
diminish. Strong winds in the Black Range will diminish quicker,
becoming calm near sunset. Winds over the Sacramento Range will be
slower to diminish but should become light by midnight.
Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday with southwest winds,
reaching around 5 - 10 degrees above normal.

A Pacific cold front will move through the region from northwest
to southeast overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will cool by around 5 - 10 degrees for Wednesday with
light northeast winds at the surface.

Temperatures will warm back up to normal quickly for the later
part of the work week with quiet weather Thursday and Friday.
Subtropical moisture is still forecasted to move northward into
the CWA next weekend with chances for rain returning at the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

VFR conditions continue through the period with high clouds moving
in through the overnight hours. Strong and gusty southwest winds
return tomorrow after 19Z, especially over area mountains. Wind
speeds between 15-20 kts are expected at TAF sites. Stronger winds
are expected in the mountains, including the Black Range and the
Sacs. LLWS and turbulence is possible near mountains. HZ and BLDU
is possible near dust prone areas after 21Z. The probability for
very low VIS due to BLDU is low for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2022

Dry and breezy conditions are expected for Monday ahead of an upper
level storm system. Slightly above normal highs combined with dry
air will lead to min RH values into the teens in the lowlands. Winds
will top out around 15 to 20 MPH, with highest winds in the
mountains. We see moisture increase for Tuesday, but winds will
increase as well with speeds topping out 20 to 30 MPH with higher
gusts. Min RH values will range upper teens to mid 20s with highest
min RH values corresponding with the strongest winds. Vent rates
will be generally be fair to very good on Monday, improving to very
good to excellent on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  36  66  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            34  63  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               29  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               30  60  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               24  40  28  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    30  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              33  53  35  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   28  63  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                29  61  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       35  64  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                27  65  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             33  68  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               34  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   31  66  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             30  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  62  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            30  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    28  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 31  66  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                30  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  29  52  35  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  50  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 25  48  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  30  54  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                29  61  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                25  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             24  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   30  60  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    22  61  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               30  54  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   28  65  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  28  65  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           31  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               34  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for NMZ402-408-415-416.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34-Brown
LONG TERM....31-Dhuyvetter
AVIATION...29-Crespo


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