Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
081 FXUS64 KEPZ 140502 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1102 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, daytime temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The area will continue to be sandwiched between two upper high pressure systems Monday keeping moisture in place over the area. Lingering convection tonight may help keep clouds largely socked in through much of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours. If clouds can stay socked in, this will help to delay storms and depending on how cloudy the area can stay, this will help suppress convection too allowing for less storms. On the other hand, cloudy skies that clear out mid-afternoon will add more instability to storms. CAMs are suggesting storms will initiate over the area mountains with lesser activity heading into the mid to late afternoon hours presumably from the cloud cover. Heading into Tuesday, a small upper low will shift westward just off shore of Baja California which will weaken the ridge over the desert southwest. An easterly wave progressing over the Gulf of Mexico will create a weakness in the other ridge to our east Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue with the afternoon monsoonal thunderstorm chances but by Thursday this weak low pressure looks to slowly meander and spin away until where it takes a northerly trajectory centered over northern Baja and southern California. This will help bring a focus for moisture and storms wherever this moisture plume sets up. This will also increase our PWs to above average which will increase the flash flooding threat with thunderstorms. This added upper level support could keep thunderstorms/showers going overnight Thursday into Friday. It looks like we keep thunderstorm chances each day through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Late night outflows are triggering off more thunderstorms tonight with lingering showers behind it. Activity should be done by around 10Z with lingering clouds left to stay through much of the morning hours. How widespread and intense storms will be tomorrow will be dependent on how slow/fast clouds can clear out. Can expect at least storms popping up over the area mountains with isolated to scattered lowland storms but does look less intense and less widespread as what we saw today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Moisture will remain elevated throughout the period, keeping minimum relative humidity values in the mid to upper teens for most zones, and higher with storm activity. Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms will be present, with gusty outflow winds being the primary concern outside of brief heavy rainfall. Venting conditions will generally range from poor to fair, with some periods of very good venting, especially westward. Consistent rainfall chances will temper critical fire weather conditions, but localized strong winds from thunderstorms still pose a risk for rapid fire spread should a new ignition occur. Additionally, lightning into receptive fuel beds may create new starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 73 95 74 / 40 50 30 20 Sierra Blanca 89 63 87 65 / 50 40 20 10 Las Cruces 96 68 92 69 / 50 60 30 30 Alamogordo 94 65 91 67 / 50 40 50 10 Cloudcroft 71 49 67 49 / 60 30 80 10 Truth or Consequences 96 68 92 69 / 40 60 40 30 Silver City 91 60 86 62 / 80 60 80 50 Deming 99 68 95 68 / 50 60 50 50 Lordsburg 98 67 92 67 / 50 60 60 60 West El Paso Metro 96 73 93 74 / 40 40 30 20 Dell City 94 68 91 69 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 97 71 95 73 / 50 40 30 20 Loma Linda 88 65 85 66 / 40 40 40 10 Fabens 96 71 94 72 / 40 40 20 10 Santa Teresa 95 71 92 72 / 40 50 30 30 White Sands HQ 96 71 92 74 / 40 50 40 20 Jornada Range 96 67 92 69 / 40 50 40 20 Hatch 99 68 95 69 / 50 60 40 30 Columbus 99 70 94 71 / 50 70 30 50 Orogrande 92 66 90 68 / 50 40 40 10 Mayhill 81 54 77 54 / 70 30 80 10 Mescalero 83 54 79 54 / 60 40 80 10 Timberon 78 53 75 53 / 70 40 70 10 Winston 88 56 85 56 / 60 60 70 40 Hillsboro 94 63 90 64 / 50 60 60 40 Spaceport 95 65 92 67 / 30 60 40 20 Lake Roberts 92 56 87 57 / 80 60 80 50 Hurley 94 62 89 63 / 70 50 70 50 Cliff 99 64 93 65 / 70 60 80 50 Mule Creek 96 62 90 62 / 70 50 80 50 Faywood 92 63 87 64 / 70 50 70 50 Animas 99 66 93 67 / 50 60 60 60 Hachita 97 65 91 67 / 50 60 60 50 Antelope Wells 96 65 91 66 / 60 80 60 70 Cloverdale 91 63 87 63 / 60 80 70 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher