559
FXUS64 KEPZ 232136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
236 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

 - Cold mornings expected through the remainder of the work week

 - Warming trend this weekend with afternoon breeziness

 - The next upper level system approaches the area Monday bringing
   breezy conditions and slight chances for precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

For those tired of the cold, a warming trend is on its way. But
first, dry, modified arctic air remains in place beneath N`LY
flow. Lows will fall well into the teens this morning again,
except for maybe El Paso, and even the slightest winds will make
it feel about 5 degrees colder. Therefore, more cold weather
advisories are in place.

As we head into tomorrow and into the weekend, flow will gradually
become more zonal by tomorrow evening and then SW`LY by Saturday.
This pattern will send temperatures upward. We will still be below
normal for Friday, but temperatures will climb above normal by
this weekend. This SW flow aloft is thanks to a closed low over
CA. We remain in SW flow into early next week as the low decides
to vacation in CA through the weekend. By Tuesday, the low will
start a slow migration eastward, but today`s model and cluster
analysis show a slower eastward progression. Normally, this
pattern would result in increasing breezes, but high pressure
will inhibit lee troughing. Thus, Monday onward will bring mild
temperatures with some afternoon breeziness, especially west.
Precip chances enter the picture by Tuesday and Wednesday, but
mainly for the Gila. It will ultimately depend on the evolution of
this slow- moving low, which remains to be seen with certainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW250. Wind speeds will
generally be AOB 10 knots. A gust or two to 20 knots cannot be
ruled out. Direction will largely favor the north for TCS and ELP,
east or northeast for DMN, and variable for LRU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2025

No critical fire conditions are expected, but very dry air is in
place. Min RH values will drop well into the teens for Friday, but
winds will generally be at or below 10 MPH. Winds increase some
for Saturday with min RH values in the mid teens. Thus, some
locally elevated fire conditions with wind speeds topping out
around 15 MPH. Sunday into next week remains breezy, but with
improvements in RH values.

Venting will be poor in the lowlands with fair to good in the
mountains. Venting improves for Saturday, ranging fair to very
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  21  49  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            16  49  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               14  47  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               11  47  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft                6  38  23  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    15  47  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              14  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   13  48  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                13  50  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       21  48  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                11  50  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             14  55  25  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               19  44  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   15  51  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             16  47  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           19  47  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            11  47  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    11  50  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 17  47  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                13  44  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  11  55  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                 8  45  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                  7  44  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                   8  49  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                17  50  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                12  47  21  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             14  54  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                    9  47  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                     3  57  14  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               15  53  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  15  47  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   12  53  22  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  12  48  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           16  51  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               22  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Friday
     for Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Friday
     for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
     Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
     Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila
     River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown