Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 011109
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
409 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

Warmer temperatures today as dry weather returns to the area. Warm
and breezy conditions this weekend, with lowland gusts to around
30 mph each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

Temperatures rebound back to seasonal normals today under light
west flow. Should be a pleasant weather day.

Southwest flow aloft this weekend, promoting more mild and dry
weather. Winds do pick up again this weekend in response to the
polar jet streak positioned over the central Rockies. Winds
becoming breezy out of the southwest Saturday afternoon with
Sunday afternoon looking to be the strongest winds. Currently,
speeds look to remain below any headlines with lowland gusts to
around 30 mph both days. Patchy blowing dust will be possible
Sunday as the nearby playas quickly dry out.

Fairly benign weather pattern early next week as the main storm
tracks remain well to our north. Ensemble solutions hinting that
a series of shortwaves will be able to dig south enough to affect
our weather after next Wednesday, with breezy winds and low-end
precipitation chances likely with any disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

VMC through forecast period. SKC with FEW-SCT250 Saturday morning.
Surface winds out of the west this afternoon 240-270 at 06-12
knots. A few gusts to 20 knots mid-afternoon at KDMN/KLRU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM MST Fri Mar 1 2024

Dry conditions return today and into the weekend along with more
seasonable temperatures. Good smoke ventilation this afternoon
under prevailing west flow 10 to 15 mph. Min RH in the 20-30%
range.

Elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend as fine fuels
dry out and winds increase out of the west-southwest. 20-ft winds
20 to 30 mph combined with RH 15-25% leading to good mixing and
Very Good ventilation. Conditions are favorable for prescribed
fire activity. Not anticipating any fire headlines at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70  41  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67  39  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               44  32  46  33 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              59  37  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   69  37  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  45  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                71  36  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  39  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               64  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            69  39  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    72  37  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  60  37  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                56  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 54  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  61  33  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  32  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   64  34  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    67  36  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               62  37  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   69  36  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  69  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           70  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  40  64  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt


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