158
FXUS64 KEPZ 262047
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
247 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Our rain chances don`t look to good over the next seven days, with
the best chances for rain west of the Rio Grande. High
temperatures this weekend will run a few degrees above average.
For the start of next week, we will continue to see a slight
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but the main story
will be the heat. For Tuesday through the end of the week, we will
see much of the lowland high temperatures at or a a few degrees
above 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

An area of upper level high pressure will continue to control our
weather over the next seven days. Though the upper level ridge
will not be centered much on our region, it will take almost a
circular path around New Mexico. This path will keep deep moisture
from being able to move into the region, which will generally
limit our rain chances through the middle of next week.

For tonight through Saturday the upper level ridge will be
centered to our west which will allow some thunderstorms to
develop over area mountains and then move to the south or
southwest, but with precipitable water values (PW`s) at a little
less than an inch, I am not expecting any widespread rainfall.
High temperature on Saturday will run a little above average. For
Sunday, the upper level ridge will briefly be centered over
southern New Mexico, which will again limit thunderstorm activity.
High temperatures on Sunday will run 3 to 5 degrees above
average.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level ridge will be
centered over central Texas. Usually that would be good to get
some deeper moisture pulled up out of Mexico. But the upper level
ridge is just a little too close to allow the deeper flow to get
going. The best chances for rain will be along the NM/AZ border.
By the end of next week the upper level ridge will drift to near
the Four Corners region, which again is not the best for rain
chances. What we will notice is the hot high temperature returning
to the region. For Tuesday through Friday, high temperatures in
the lowlands will run near or a few degrees above 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. We will see a
chance for thunderstorms this evening, mainly west of the Rio
Grande, but gusty outflow winds could effect just about anywhere.
While there is not a good chance for thunderstorms to directly
impact area airports, the winds and ceilings of BKN120 could
affect the airports later this evening. The middle ceilings
should lift late tonight, but we will again see a chance for
thunderstorms, mainly west of the Rio Grande on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low for the next seven days. We will
see isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each
day, with the best chances for rain west of the Rio Grande. Min
RH`s on Saturday will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the
20`s in area mountains. Min RH`s will be a little higher for
Sunday and Monday, before coming back down some for the middle of
next week. Very warm to hot temperatures will return to the region
next week. Ventilation rates will range good to very good over the
next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  99  76 101 /   0  30  40  20
Sierra Blanca            66  90  67  92 /   0  30  30  30
Las Cruces               72  99  72 100 /  30  40  50  10
Alamogordo               69  95  69  97 /  10  30  20  20
Cloudcroft               53  73  53  74 /  20  60  20  50
Truth or Consequences    69  94  70  95 /  40  50  30  20
Silver City              63  88  63  88 /  60  90  50  50
Deming                   70  96  70  97 /  60  60  50  20
Lordsburg                70  94  69  95 /  50  80  50  40
West El Paso Metro       76  97  75  98 /   0  30  40  20
Dell City                69  96  70  99 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             71  98  71 100 /   0  30  40  30
Loma Linda               68  90  67  92 /  20  40  30  30
Fabens                   73  97  73  99 /   0  30  30  20
Santa Teresa             72  96  72  97 /  30  40  50  20
White Sands HQ           73  96  73  97 /  20  40  40  20
Jornada Range            70  96  70  97 /  40  40  40  20
Hatch                    70  99  70 100 /  50  50  50  20
Columbus                 73  96  72  97 /  50  60  50  20
Orogrande                70  94  70  96 /  10  30  20  20
Mayhill                  58  82  58  85 /  30  50  20  40
Mescalero                58  83  57  86 /  30  70  20  40
Timberon                 56  81  56  83 /  10  50  20  40
Winston                  57  86  58  87 /  50  80  40  40
Hillsboro                66  92  66  93 /  60  70  60  30
Spaceport                67  95  67  97 /  30  50  30  20
Lake Roberts             59  88  60  88 /  60  90  50  50
Hurley                   64  91  65  92 /  50  80  50  40
Cliff                    64  98  65  98 /  50  80  50  40
Mule Creek               66  91  65  90 /  40  80  50  40
Faywood                  66  90  66  92 /  60  80  50  30
Animas                   70  94  68  94 /  60  80  50  50
Hachita                  69  94  67  92 /  60  70  50  30
Antelope Wells           69  92  67  92 /  50  80  50  50
Cloverdale               65  87  64  87 /  70  80  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice