Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081744
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Warm and dry conditions will move into the area today, with little
to no rain chances expected through next week. Afternoon
temperatures will slowly start to increase with our first 100
degree day possible next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
A dry pattern is expected to move into the area today with ridging
dominating our area through next week. Expect southwest flow
throughout the period with breezy conditions for most afternoons
with seasonal temperatures through early next week. Winds look to
pick up Monday through Wednesday as a shortwave trough pushes
through the area. Tuesday looks to have the highest winds with
gusts in the mid to upper 30s possible. The first 100 degree day
for El Paso might happen next week with NBM showing a 20 percent
chance of > 100F after Tuesday. Chances increase to near 40
percent going into the weekend, so odds are we will get that mark
by the end of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period. High clouds will be
moving in through the area. Winds will be generally from the
southwest with speeds around 5-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts this
afternoon. Winds subside around sunset with speeds below 10 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
A warm and dry pattern will set up through the period, with min RH
values mostly below 10% in the lowlands and 15% in the mountains.
The limiting factor will be winds, with most of the period below
15 mph until Sunday. Winds will slightly pick up Sunday afternoon
with 15-20mph and increase slightly Monday afternoon. Winds pick
up enough Tuesday that there will be critical fire weather
conditions over the Sacramento Mountains as winds get over 20 mph,
RH drops below 15%, and ERC percentiles increase into the 90th
percentiles. Vent rates will be good to excellent throughout the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 94 70 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 88 62 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 93 64 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 89 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 67 47 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 89 61 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 81 56 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 91 58 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 87 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 91 67 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 92 59 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 94 64 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 85 63 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 94 66 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 89 63 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 91 69 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 89 60 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 91 61 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 91 64 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 89 60 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 80 52 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 77 50 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 76 50 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 80 53 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 87 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 89 58 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 82 51 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 86 56 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 89 47 87 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 83 54 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 86 59 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 89 57 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 89 58 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 89 58 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 82 56 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...01-Barham
FIRE WEATHER....01-Barham
AVIATION...29-Crespo