Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
402 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will be dry and warmer than normal throughout this
forecast period, with breezy afternoons most of the days. Today`s
high temperatures will flirt with record levels, topping the
century mark in the lower elevations. As high pressure aloft
weakens afternoon temperatures will not be quite as hot Sunday
into midweek, but still above normal. Then triple digits will
return late next week as another upper ridge builds over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge overhead will be pushed eastward today by an upper
low moving onshore and into the Great Basin. This puts us in the
sweet spot for hot maximum temps...heights aloft still high but
combined with increasing southwest flow. Thus El Paso will top
out at or slightly over 100 and flirt with the record high for the
date. That upper low will settle over the Great Basin for a few
days before weakening and moving off to the northeast. Meanwhile
west to southwest flow will bring us dry weather and breezy
afternoons for the next several days.

After today afternoon temps will drop a few degrees but still be
warmer than normal. However, those triple digit lowland temps
will return by late next week as another upper high builds out of
Mexico over central Texas. Still dry, too. Beyond the forecast
period one of the computer models is teasing us with moisture
sneaking in from the southeast, but being more than a week away
it`s probably fantasy at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z... P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-
BKN250 during the period. Winds will mainly be out of the S to SW
AOB 12 KTS, increasing to 10-20G30KTS after 18Z with strongest
winds west portion.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge moving across the region followed by southwest flow will
keep temperatures much above normal with relative humidities into
the single digits through the period. Expect highs in the mid 90s to
near 100. Winds will increase this afternoon out of the south to
southwest at 10 to 20 mph which will create some near red flag
conditions most of the area, with red flag conditions northern
Grant and Hidalgo counties. After today winds should remain below
critical speeds but come close during the next several afternoons.
Vent rates will remain very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  70  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca          100  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              98  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              98  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              77  53  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   97  62  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             89  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  98  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               96  56  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     100  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              102  65  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           104  70  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              96  66  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 102  66  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            99  66  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          98  67  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           98  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   99  60  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                99  62  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  68  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 86  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               85  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                84  55  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 89  52  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               94  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               97  61  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            87  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  91  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   93  48  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              90  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 93  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  97  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 98  57  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          97  58  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              92  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ110.

TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett



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