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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081744
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Warm and dry conditions will move into the area today, with little
to no rain chances expected through next week. Afternoon
temperatures will slowly start to increase with our first 100
degree day possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A dry pattern is expected to move into the area today with ridging
dominating our area through next week. Expect southwest flow
throughout the period with breezy conditions for most afternoons
with seasonal temperatures through early next week. Winds look to
pick up Monday through Wednesday as a shortwave trough pushes
through the area. Tuesday looks to have the highest winds with
gusts in the mid to upper 30s possible. The first 100 degree day
for El Paso might happen next week with NBM showing a 20 percent
chance of > 100F after Tuesday. Chances increase to near 40
percent going into the weekend, so odds are we will get that mark
by the end of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. High clouds will be
moving in through the area. Winds will be generally from the
southwest with speeds around 5-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts this
afternoon. Winds subside around sunset with speeds below 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A warm and dry pattern will set up through the period, with min RH
values mostly below 10% in the lowlands and 15% in the mountains.
The limiting factor will be winds, with most of the period below
15 mph until Sunday. Winds will slightly pick up Sunday afternoon
with 15-20mph and increase slightly Monday afternoon. Winds pick
up enough Tuesday that there will be critical fire weather
conditions over the Sacramento Mountains as winds get over 20 mph,
RH drops below 15%, and ERC percentiles increase into the 90th
percentiles. Vent rates will be good to excellent throughout the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  70  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            88  62  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               93  64  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               89  60  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               67  47  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    89  61  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              81  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  58  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  58  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  67  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  59  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  64  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  63  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  66  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  63  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  69  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  60  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  61  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 91  64  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  80  52  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  80  53  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  60  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                89  58  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             82  51  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  56  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  47  87  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  54  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  86  59  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  57  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  89  58  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  58  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               82  56  81  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...01-Barham
FIRE WEATHER....01-Barham
AVIATION...29-Crespo