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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 192017 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 217 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Another cold front will move across southern New Mexico and west Texas on Saturday and this will result in a few mainly light rain showers Saturday and Sunday along with cooler temperatures again on Sunday. Gusty east winds are also expected Saturday and Sunday especially along western facing slopes. Warmer air will flow back into the region early next week. However an upper level disturbance will also move west to east across the southern Rocky Mountains causing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Mild temperatures with isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions occurring next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Complex situation and weather pattern will exist next several days across the southwestern United States. Upper low was spinning off the southern California coast early this afternoon but satellite images showing drier stable air aloft has advected into the CWA while low level easterlies continue to push in cooler air at the surface. This scenario has sustained extensive low cloud coverage but with some breaks allowing air to become a little warmer than previous days. Since moisture is shallow rainfall is unlikely most locations through tonight. Winds will also become stronger with gusts around 40 mph along western facing slopes. Upper low will remain off the California coast Saturday and Sunday with cyclonic flow around it advecting another surge of moist air aloft into the CWA from the southwest. Concurrently a cold Canadian front will push to the southwest through New Mexico and far west Texas with easterly winds behind the boundary advecting another round of cool air. In addition the cool air mass at the surface will isentropically lift the warmer moist air coming up from the southwest resulting in cool cloudy weather with areas of light rain Saturday through Sunday. In addition Sunday high temperatures will fall to around 15 degrees below normal. Low level winds will become more southerly by Monday with advection of warmer more moist air pushing surface temperatures back to around 70 and dewpoints up to near 50. This will make air mass weakly unstable. Upper low will meanwhile drift into the Great Basin on Monday with weak short waves ejecting ahead of it into the CWA. This will induce a few showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Tuesday now looking very active. Low level southerly winds will sustain transport of mild moist air at low levels with forecasted sounding showing MUCAPE`s around 500 to 1000 J/kg in the afternoon. A stronger wave will also move eastward across the CWA with differential PVA fields suggesting rather strong dynamic upward forcing. This should generate more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds at 6 km will be from the southwest at around 40 kt overlaying southeasterly surface winds near 10 kt with resultant wind shear favorable for a few storms producing large hail and wind damage. Of course still some uncertainties this far ahead. Wednesday through Thursday flow becomes more zonal resulting in mild drier weather but weak embedded waves will still induce mainly isolated storms each day. && .AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z... P6SM SCT-BKN040-050 BKN080-100 through period. Isolated -SHRA mainly south of I-10 after 12Z. Winds continue out of the northeast to southeast at AOB 12KTS increasing to 10-20G30KTS after 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper low will continue to linger along the west coast until midweek. Warmer temperatures will remain in place for Saturday with a few rain showers possible. Another back door front will enter late Saturday into Sunday and drop temperatures about 10 degrees for Sunday. As trough finally starts to move eastward early next week, temperatures will warm back up to near 70 degrees, but there will be an increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become strong to severe Tuesday. Trough finally pushes east of area late Wednesday and drier air returns for the end of next week. Inversion will remain in place however for the next several days which will keep vent rates poor to fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 66 50 61 / 0 20 20 20 Sierra Blanca 47 59 47 58 / 0 30 20 30 Las Cruces 49 65 49 60 / 0 10 10 20 Alamogordo 48 66 48 60 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 38 47 34 45 / 0 0 10 30 Truth or Consequences 48 66 48 61 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 45 63 45 59 / 0 0 20 20 Deming 50 66 51 61 / 0 10 20 20 Lordsburg 51 69 51 65 / 0 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 54 65 52 60 / 0 20 20 20 Dell City 50 65 48 60 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Hancock 53 65 51 64 / 0 30 20 30 Loma Linda 48 59 46 56 / 0 20 20 20 Fabens 53 66 51 63 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Teresa 52 65 51 61 / 0 20 20 20 White Sands HQ 50 65 50 59 / 0 0 10 20 Jornada Range 48 65 49 59 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 48 66 50 62 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 52 66 52 62 / 0 20 20 20 Orogrande 50 65 49 60 / 0 0 10 20 Mayhill 40 52 36 49 / 0 0 10 30 Mescalero 41 54 38 51 / 0 0 10 30 Timberon 41 53 39 50 / 0 0 10 30 Winston 39 59 39 57 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 44 63 45 58 / 0 0 10 20 Spaceport 48 65 47 59 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 40 63 40 61 / 0 0 10 20 Hurley 45 63 45 59 / 0 0 20 20 Cliff 44 68 47 68 / 0 0 20 20 Mule Creek 45 68 48 66 / 0 0 20 20 Faywood 46 62 46 58 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 51 68 51 66 / 0 20 20 20 Hachita 49 67 50 63 / 0 20 20 20 Antelope Wells 49 66 50 66 / 10 20 20 20 Cloverdale 49 64 49 65 / 10 20 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz
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