Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192017
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
217 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front will move across southern New Mexico and west
Texas on Saturday and this will result in a few mainly light rain
showers Saturday and Sunday along with cooler temperatures again
on Sunday. Gusty east winds are also expected Saturday and Sunday
especially along western facing slopes. Warmer air will flow back
into the region early next week. However an upper level
disturbance will also move west to east across the southern Rocky
Mountains causing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Tuesday. Mild temperatures with isolated thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions occurring
next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Complex situation and weather pattern will exist next several days
across the southwestern United States. Upper low was spinning off
the southern California coast early this afternoon but satellite
images showing drier stable air aloft has advected into the CWA
while low level easterlies continue to push in cooler air at the
surface. This scenario has sustained extensive low cloud coverage
but with some breaks allowing air to become a little warmer than
previous days. Since moisture is shallow rainfall is unlikely
most locations through tonight. Winds will also become stronger
with gusts around 40 mph along western facing slopes.

Upper low will remain off the California coast Saturday and Sunday
with cyclonic flow around it advecting another surge of moist air
aloft into the CWA from the southwest. Concurrently a cold
Canadian front will push to the southwest through New Mexico and
far west Texas with easterly winds behind the boundary advecting
another round of cool air. In addition the cool air mass at the
surface will isentropically lift the warmer moist air coming up
from the southwest resulting in cool cloudy weather with areas of
light rain Saturday through Sunday. In addition Sunday high
temperatures will fall to around 15 degrees below normal.

Low level winds will become more southerly by Monday with
advection of warmer more moist air pushing surface temperatures
back to around 70 and dewpoints up to near 50. This will make air
mass weakly unstable. Upper low will meanwhile drift into the
Great Basin on Monday with weak short waves ejecting ahead of it
into the CWA. This will induce a few showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday now looking very active. Low level southerly winds will
sustain transport of mild moist air at low levels with forecasted
sounding showing MUCAPE`s around 500 to 1000 J/kg in the
afternoon. A stronger wave will also move eastward across the CWA
with differential PVA fields suggesting rather strong dynamic
upward forcing. This should generate more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds at 6 km
will be from the southwest at around 40 kt overlaying
southeasterly surface winds near 10 kt with resultant wind shear
favorable for a few storms producing large hail and wind damage.
Of course still some uncertainties this far ahead.

Wednesday through Thursday flow becomes more zonal resulting in
mild drier weather but weak embedded waves will still induce
mainly isolated storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-050 BKN080-100 through period. Isolated -SHRA mainly
south of I-10 after 12Z. Winds continue out of the northeast to
southeast at AOB 12KTS increasing to 10-20G30KTS after 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low will continue to linger along the west coast until
midweek. Warmer temperatures will remain in place for Saturday with
a few rain showers possible.  Another back door front will enter
late Saturday into Sunday and drop temperatures about 10 degrees for
Sunday. As trough finally starts to move eastward early next week,
temperatures will warm back up to near 70 degrees, but there will be
an increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms
could become strong to severe Tuesday. Trough finally pushes east of
area late Wednesday and drier air returns for the end of next week.
Inversion will remain in place however for the next several days
which will keep vent rates poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  66  50  61 /   0  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           47  59  47  58 /   0  30  20  30
Las Cruces              49  65  49  60 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo              48  66  48  60 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              38  47  34  45 /   0   0  10  30
Truth or Consequences   48  66  48  61 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             45  63  45  59 /   0   0  20  20
Deming                  50  66  51  61 /   0  10  20  20
Lordsburg               51  69  51  65 /   0  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro      54  65  52  60 /   0  20  20  20
Dell City               50  65  48  60 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Hancock            53  65  51  64 /   0  30  20  30
Loma Linda              48  59  46  56 /   0  20  20  20
Fabens                  53  66  51  63 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            52  65  51  61 /   0  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          50  65  50  59 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range           48  65  49  59 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   48  66  50  62 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                52  66  52  62 /   0  20  20  20
Orogrande               50  65  49  60 /   0   0  10  20
Mayhill                 40  52  36  49 /   0   0  10  30
Mescalero               41  54  38  51 /   0   0  10  30
Timberon                41  53  39  50 /   0   0  10  30
Winston                 39  59  39  57 /   0   0  10  20
Hillsboro               44  63  45  58 /   0   0  10  20
Spaceport               48  65  47  59 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            40  63  40  61 /   0   0  10  20
Hurley                  45  63  45  59 /   0   0  20  20
Cliff                   44  68  47  68 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek              45  68  48  66 /   0   0  20  20
Faywood                 46  62  46  58 /   0   0  10  20
Animas                  51  68  51  66 /   0  20  20  20
Hachita                 49  67  50  63 /   0  20  20  20
Antelope Wells          49  66  50  66 /  10  20  20  20
Cloverdale              49  64  49  65 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz


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