Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 101951
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
151 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms continue through the end of the week
for area mountains while most other areas remain dry. However, the
big story will be the heat, peaking Wednesday through Friday,
with highs approaching 105 degrees across desert lowland
locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Drier air is moving into the forecast area from the northeast,
which is evident on the GOES 16 TPW product showing 1.0" of PW
roughly south of a Lordsburg to Roswell line, and less of an inch
to the north/NW. A few isolated mountain storms have sparked this
afternoon thanks to forcing from orographic lifting, but given the
decreasing moisture and lack of instability, storm development
will be limited. The better chance for rain will be in Hudspeth
County where there is better moisture, however the timeframe for
storm development will be limited to the next few hours due to
waning instability. *IF* anything develops, a few storms may have
some gusty outflows given the 40-50 degree dew point depressions.

The bigger story for today and tomorrow (and the upcoming week for
that matter) is the HEAT. Upper level high pressure has settled over
the region, and has become stationary.  This will help temperatures
to rise 10+ degrees above normal, with lowland highs resulting in
widespread 100F temperatures. Warm mid-levels and strong subsidence
will help also keep the atmosphere capped, limiting storm chances
tomorrow afternoon to the higher terrain in our eastern zones...
and even then, storm chances will be minimal.

&&

33

.LONG TERM...
Heat will be the big story through this upcoming week. Temperatures
rise into the 100-105 degree mark most lowland locations through the
end of the week, with perhaps Thursday and Friday the hottest days.
Highs will approach, and possibly eclipse, 105 degrees across El
Paso and adjacent SW NM desert locations. This is all consequent of
an upper ridge intensifying over the region reducing any good
quality, rich, moisture transport into the region. Subsidence aloft
will reduce storm chances as well, especially over lowland
locations, but perhaps even area mountains struggle a few days. All
in all, only isolated thunderstorms through the end of the week
mainly with hot temperatures approaching record values.

Upper ridge shifts west this weekend and then northwest into early
next week, perhaps increasing moisture a bit, especially early next
week. This will increase storm activity, especially if an embedded
perturbation within the flow can can eject into our region.
Nevertheless, in this configuration, temperatures will begin to
decrease.

&&

35

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
NWerly surface winds will help usher in drier air this afternoon,
essentially shutting off the moisture tap we`ve seen the past
several days. Thunderstorm development today will remain east of
terminals this afternoon. Therefore expect VFR conditions with
ceilings FEW120 FEW250 and northwest winds AOB 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect very hot and dry conditions overall through Friday. An
area of high pressure will sit over the Borderland starting today
and persist through late week. This has ushered in drier air and
will limit any afternoon storm chances to the higher terrain,
though storm chances will be minimal overall. Min RHs will drop to
10-15% through Friday, and high temperatures will top out above
100 degrees in most lowland locations each afternoon (this is 10+
degrees above normal for this time of the year). Winds look to
remain below critical thresholds, except for around any
thunderstorms where gusty, erratic winds will be possible. Vent
rates will generally be fair to good.

&&

33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75 104  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           69  98  69  99 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces              69 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              72 103  72 104 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              55  79  54  80 /   0  10   0  20
Truth or Consequences   71 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  67 102  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               68 100  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      76 104  77 105 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               71 103  71 104 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            75 104  75 105 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              72  97  72  98 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                  76 103  76 104 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            72 103  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           70 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   70 102  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                72 103  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               72 102  72 103 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                 61  88  61  90 /   0  10   0  20
Mescalero               59  89  59  90 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                59  87  59  88 /   0  10   0  10
Winston                 59  91  59  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               67  99  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               69 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            59  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  64  96  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   61  99  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              65  95  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 67  97  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  67 100  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 66 100  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          67  98  67 100 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale              64  93  65  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

33-Reynolds/35-DeLizio


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