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316
FXUS64 KEPZ 162003
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
203 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances aloft will combine with low level moisture to
bring a few showers and thunderstorms to southern New Mexico and
west Texas tonight through Thursday. Westerly winds will produce
seasonably warm mostly dry weather this coming weekend and early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass remains moist and unstable across southern New Mexico
and west Texas with precipitable water around 1.2 and CAPE`s from
1000 to 2000 J/kg early this afternoon. The region was also
located between a deep upper trough moving into the Great Basin
from the west and high pressure to the east. Resultant circulation
will be favorable for weak impulses aloft moving into the CWA
from the southwest tonight and Tuesday causing a few showers and
thunderstorms.

Another deep upper trough will move across the west coast and
Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday with weak impulses aloft again
expected to move into the region. Southerly low level winds will
concurrently sustain low level moisture transport with dewpoints
around 55 to 60 and precipitable water mostly around an inch. Air
mass will be weakly unstable during this time so expect a few
showers and thunderstorms again Wednesday and Thursday.

A zonal flow aloft ensues by Friday afternoon and continues into
the weekend with the deepening westerly flow advecting drier
stable air. Precipitable water will fall to only around .5 inch by
Sunday afternoon with almost no instability. Thus expect
seasonably mostly dry weather Friday through Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
VFR conditions prevail this period. A few areas of MVFR to IFR could
be possible near thunderstorms. However, storm coverage is expected
to be less than yesterday with its main focus over area mountains.
Winds will be from the northwest, west of the Continental Divide,
and from the south everywhere else in the region through 3Z, then
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough left the area overnight and residual moisture from it
is still lingering in the region. This moisture will lead to more
scattered thunderstorms in the mountains and isolated storms in the
lowlands this afternoon and evening. Over the next few days, we keep
drying out with minimum relative humidity in the 25 to 30 percent
range in the lowlands and 30 to 40 percent in the higher elevations.
This will result in more isolated storms through the week with
better chances in areas to the east. Ventilation rates will remain
mostly in the fair to good categories due to slightly warmer
temperatures and the lighter transport winds. Towards the weekend,
an upper trough to the north sets a westerly flow bringing drier and
warm air to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  90  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  87  64  89 /  10  20  20  20
Las Cruces              63  87  63  89 /  30  10   0   0
Alamogordo              64  87  65  91 /  30  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  66  50  70 /  30  30  10  10
Truth or Consequences   63  85  62  89 /  30  20   0   0
Silver City             57  79  57  82 /  30  20   0   0
Deming                  62  86  61  89 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg               61  85  62  88 /  20  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  89  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City               66  91  66  94 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Hancock            70  91  70  94 /  10  20  20   0
Loma Linda              64  85  65  87 /  20  20   0   0
Fabens                  68  90  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  88  65  90 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          65  87  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
Jornada Range           63  86  62  90 /  30  10   0   0
Hatch                   62  87  62  90 /  30  10   0   0
Columbus                63  87  63  89 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande               65  88  65  90 /  30  10   0   0
Mayhill                 54  76  54  80 /  30  30  10  20
Mescalero               53  76  53  80 /  30  20  10  10
Timberon                53  75  53  78 /  20  30  10  10
Winston                 51  79  52  82 /  30  20   0   0
Hillsboro               58  84  59  88 /  30  20   0   0
Spaceport               61  86  61  89 /  30  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            52  79  51  83 /  30  20   0   0
Hurley                  57  81  57  85 /  30  20   0   0
Cliff                   57  84  56  89 /  20  20   0   0
Mule Creek              58  81  58  84 /  20  10   0   0
Faywood                 58  82  57  85 /  30  20   0   0
Animas                  62  85  61  89 /  20  20   0   0
Hachita                 60  85  60  88 /  20  20   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  84  61  88 /  20  20   0   0
Cloverdale              60  81  60  84 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/29 Crespo