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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132044
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
144 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend will be warm with windy conditions as an upper level
system swing by to our north. The strongest winds will occur
Sunday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph across the New Mexico
lowlands and even stronger winds over area mountains.
Temperatures will be significantly cooler Monday and Tuesday as a
backdoor cold front arrives from the east. Dry weather is expected
to continue through the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday...
Strengthening westerly winds aloft will persist sustaining transport
of warm dry air mass. Thus expect dry weather and above average
temperatures with  Saturday afternoon highs around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal.

The zonal/westerly flow aloft will result in downslope conditions
along the front range with lee surface troughing established by
Saturday afternoon. Thus surface to mid level gradients will tighten
with dry lapse rates from the surface to about 720 mb later Saturday
where wind speeds will be around 35 kts. This scenario will result
in breezy to marginally windy conditions tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Winds will be the main concern on Sunday as an upper wave
progresses across the Intermountain West. A deep, lee side surface
low is expected to develop through the day on Sunday centered over
eastern NM in response to strong 500 mb vorticity lobe. Surface
pressure gradients will tighten even further from what we will see
on Saturday. Temperatures will also reach what may be our warmest
of December as we push 70 degrees in El Paso. The current
forecast calls for sustained wind speeds of 20-35 mph across the
southern NM lowlands, with widespread gusts to 40 mph. Even
stronger winds are expected closer to the surface low, primarily
over the Sacramento Mountains eastward. Gusts to 60 mph will be
possible there. I did include mention of blowing dust across the
I-10 corridor despite soils still being damp from last Monday`s
rains. Warmer temperatures and windy conditions should dry dust
sources quickly over the weekend and I`m guessing we see a
response in places. Winds should reach their peak around 21Z
Sunday before weakening after sunset.

A backdoor cold front arrives on Monday behind the aforementioned
system. Temperatures will cool significantly Monday afternoon,
resulting in a 10 to 20 degree cooling from Sunday`s highs. This
means highs in the lower 50`s for the NM lowlands. Cold easterly
flow will establish itself further on Tuesday, with most areas
failing to reach 50 degrees Tuesday afternoon. This also means
cold nights Mon/Tues, with mountain zones dipping into the teens.

Dry weather will prevail through the week as progress upper flow
quickly advects an upper ridge eastward on Wednesday. Long term
models show poor agreement Thursday and beyond as both global
models struggle to keep up with the speed of flow. Next Thursday
is most interesting, as upper troughing would promote breezy winds
and maybe some mountain snows. Low confidence in the extended
means I can provide few details. That said, next weekend looks to
be dry and mild.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
Strong westerly flow aloft will exist over high pressure at the
surface this afternoon and tonight. This pattern will bring dry
weather with VFR conditions and skies mostly SKC-SCT250. Surface
winds around 5-15kts lower elevations but around 20kts with gusts
around 30kts higher mountain locations through this afternoon before
diminishing to around 10-20kts tonight. However surface low
development to the northeast will result in winds increasing to
around 15-25kts with gusts to 35kts most locations after 18Z
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be elevated over the weekend as winds
increase, dry weather prevails, and temperatures rise to around 15
degrees above climate normals.

Saturday will be breezy areawide along with warm temperatures for
mid December. 20-ft winds of 15-25 mph will produce Fair to Good
ventilation. Temperatures will peak at 10-15 degrees above normal.
Winds will be even stronger on Sunday as an upper level system
swings by to our north. We should stay dry though the day, with
mountain wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Even stronger gusts will be
possible over the Sacramento Mountains/LNF.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday as winds turn
to the east. No precipitation chances forecasted in the week
ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  71  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           39  71  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              39  69  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              32  52  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   38  69  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  62  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  37  69  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  67  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  74  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  77  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              42  66  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  41  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          43  71  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           37  69  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   38  71  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                41  71  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               39  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 37  65  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               33  61  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                32  60  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 36  63  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               37  69  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               36  70  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            34  62  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  37  64  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   31  68  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  63  38  56 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 39  66  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  39  71  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 37  69  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          40  72  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              42  67  43  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/30/05