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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262116
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
316 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
We will have just enough moisture across the region to give us a
slight chance for thunderstorms each day through the first of next
week. Most days, most of us will stay dry, but each day a few
spots will get some rain. Our high temperatures the next couple of
days will run a few degrees above average, then back to near
average for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will be seeing a very slow to change weather pattern over the
next week, so our weather will be very similar from day to day
through the first of next week. At the surface a modest amount of
moisture has moved into the region, while aloft an area of upper
level high pressure was building across New Mexico. The moisture
at the surface will help fuel isolated thunderstorms each day,
with the best chances in area mountains. While the upper level
area of high pressure will continue to limit the areal extent of
thunderstorms. For today, the thunderstorms will be limited to
locations east of the Rio Grande, then on Thursday most of the
area will see a chance for rain (but most of us will remain dry).
As a matter of fact, I mentioned the potential for some dry
lightning in the Gila Region Thursday afternoon. On Friday and
Saturday the ridge aloft will try and limit the thunderstorms to
area mountains and locations west of the Rio Grande. For Sunday
and Monday, we will see even less thunderstorm coverage as the
upper level ridge drifts to our west. Then with the upper level
ridge a little to our west, the circulation around the ridge will
pull down some recycled moisture from the north. But then just as
quickly both the extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that for the
middle to the end of next week, the ridge will build back into
New Mexico ending our rain chances. Right now, first guess for the
the Fourth of July, it is looking hot and dry.

Our high temperatures won`t change much from day to day.
Thursday`s highs will be similar to today`s highs and for Friday
through the first part of next week, high temperatures will drop a
few degrees to near average, then for the middle and end of next
week, temperatures look to climb back a little above average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z
With moisture levels slowly increasing, most terminals will continue
to see FEW-SCT100 thru the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms will
become possible after 18Z with the main focus on the higher terrain
of the Sacramento Mountains and the Gila. However a stray storm
could also impact any terminal by late afternoon. Winds look to
generally stay below 12 knots thru the evening and overnight with
winds becoming mainly from the south at 10 to 15 KTS after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While moisture continues to slowly work its way west across the area
the next few days, only isolated afternoon activity is expected
thanks to high pressure aloft.  The main focus for initial storm
development will be over higher terrain with additional storms
possible later each afternoon across the lowlands. Of primary
concern for fire weather operations will be the potential for dry
lightning the next few days along with very gusty and erratic winds
near individual storms.  Better chances for wetting precip will
eventually arrive later next week.

Min RH levels will generally be increasing but will still be near
critical levels for a few more days across lowland areas. However
winds should stay below Red Flag criteria through the period. In
general vent categories should be good to very good with only a few
exceptions over the highest of terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  99  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  93  66  91 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              68  96  68  93 /   0   0  10   0
Alamogordo              66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  20
Cloudcroft              50  75  51  71 /  10  20  10  40
Truth or Consequences   68  97  68  94 /   0  10  20  20
Silver City             63  91  64  89 /   0  10  20  40
Deming                  65  98  66  96 /   0   0  20   0
Lordsburg               65  98  66  96 /   0   0  20   0
West El Paso Metro      73  99  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City               67  99  68  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            73 101  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              70  93  70  90 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  74 100  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            69  98  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73  97  73  93 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range           66  96  66  93 /   0   0  10  20
Hatch                   66  98  66  95 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus                70  99  72  96 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande               68  96  68  93 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  85  55  82 /  10  30  10  40
Mescalero               53  85  54  81 /  10  30  10  40
Timberon                52  82  53  79 /  10  20  10  40
Winston                 53  91  53  88 /   0  20  20  40
Hillsboro               63  96  63  93 /   0  10  20  40
Spaceport               63  96  64  93 /   0  10  20  20
Lake Roberts            55  94  56  91 /   0  10  20  40
Hurley                  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  20  30
Cliff                   54  99  55  98 /   0   0  10  20
Mule Creek              63  94  64  92 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 63  94  64  91 /   0  10  20  30
Animas                  64 100  66  98 /   0   0  20   0
Hachita                 63  99  64  96 /   0   0  20   0
Antelope Wells          65  99  66  96 /   0   0  20   0
Cloverdale              63  94  66  91 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Laney