Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191031
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
431 AM MDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A windy first half of the week is in store for the Borderland as
several upper level disturbances make their way across the western
U.S. Temperatures will fluctuate between below and above normal
through the forecast period. Most of the area will remain dry
except for a few thunderstorms possible in the Gila region on
Monday and across far eastern locations to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The calendar says it`s May, but the weather pattern across the
southwestern US says it`s more like March or early April. A slower
moving upper low will be making its way across the area creating
breezy to windy conditions each day through Wednesday. Today will
feature increasing cirrus clouds as upper level moisture streams
in from the west. Winds today won`t be as bad, though some gusts
to 25mph will be possible for areas west of the Rio Grande valley.

Monday is the day to highlight as the deep low pressure system
digs down into New Mexico. The tightened pressure gradient and
strong nature of this system will create windy conditions across
the entire forecast area. Widespread 30-40mph sustained winds with
gusts upwards of 55+ mph, especially along eastern slopes of area
mountains, will create hazardous driving conditions and areas of
blowing dust. A High Wind Watch has been issued for locations
along and east of the Rio Grande for Monday afternoon and evening.
A Wind Advisory will likely be issued for the rest of the area in
the next forecast package.

The first low will lift out of our area on Tuesday, however, a
secondary low will move into the Great Basin region in its wake.
This will keep us windy, though not quite as strong as Monday.
Temperatures will remain below normal in the mid to upper 70s to
around 80 for the lowlands.

The aforementioned second upper low will then swing through
Arizona and into our area on Wednesday keeping winds elevated in
the windy category. Blowing dust will be possible during the
afternoon hours once again. The flow will turn a bit more
southwesterly allowing temperatures to warm above normal and close
in on 90 degrees for El Paso.

Moving forward into the second half of the week, winds will begin
to relax on Thursday as the core of the upper level disturbances
lifts away from the area. Focus will then turn to eastern zones
as an oscillating dryline lingers along the CWA boundary. Due to
the increased moisture, low-end POPs have been included mainly for
Hudspeth and eastern Otero Counties Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Skies SCT-BKN250 through the period. Surface winds will be
southwesterly around 10-20KTS after 20Z. Gusts to 25-30KTS will
be likely from KTCS/KDMN and areas to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area will remain in an active pattern over the next several
days as an upper level low currently centered along the west
coast pushes in. Since gusty winds will be our main hazard for
the forecast period, some locations could experience an hour or
two of critical conditions each day today through Wednesday. For
today, winds will be breezy mainly for areas west of the Rio
Grande valley. Monday will be the windiest day as widespread
30-40mph sustained surface winds are expected. As a result, a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for the lowlands Monday afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy to windy both Tuesday and Wednesday as a
second upper low moves in. Temperatures will fluctuate between
below and above normal through the period. Vent rates will remain
very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 87  65  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           87  59  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              83  56  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              83  58  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              60  43  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   80  56  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             72  47  59  36 /   0   0  20  10
Deming                  83  53  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               81  50  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      86  63  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               89  58  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            92  63  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  59  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  90  63  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            86  60  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          83  61  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           83  55  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   83  55  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                85  55  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               84  60  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 72  49  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               69  48  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                70  47  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 73  44  61  35 /   0   0  20   0
Hillsboro               77  50  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               81  54  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            70  42  58  32 /   0   0  30  20
Hurley                  75  47  62  37 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                   77  45  63  35 /   0   0  30  20
Mule Creek              74  47  58  37 /   0   0  30  20
Faywood                 76  48  64  38 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                  83  50  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 83  50  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          83  49  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              77  48  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ111-112.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     NMZ410>417.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

32-Pegram


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