Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 140545
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1145 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...06Z TAF Cycle...
Winds will continue to subside overnight as earlier convection has
come to an end. Expect generally VFR conditions through 00Z with the
exception of KTCS where some earlier convection could result in
lower visibilities in passing storms after 11Z. At all other
terminals convection is expected to begin around or after 00Z. In
general winds will be AOB 12KTS with the exception of passing
outflow from storms which will result in VAR20G40 at times.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
The next couple of days will bring a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the Borderland. The main threat with these storms
will be gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rain. Dry southwest
winds return for the weekend into early next week with
temperatures remaining in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A brief cool
down is expected for Tuesday as an upper low moves across the
southern Rockies with a slight chance for storms. Temperatures
return to near normal for the later part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
Low level southeasterly flow continues to import low level moisture
into the area with dewpoints ranging from the mid 30s west of the
divide to upper 40s east of the Rio Grande. A modest amount of CAPE
will be available for a few thunderstorms (mainly eastern portion)
this evening, especially near the international border where
outflows will be propagating northward from storms over northern
Chihuahua. A limiting factor is the upper ridge over the area. Also,
any storms will be high based with strong gusty winds and localized
blowing dust the primary threats.

On Friday the temperatures should be a little above normal, with
perhaps even more low level moisture in the eastern portion. That
adds up to more instability so thunderstorm chances increase from
the Rio Grande eastward. Drier air will be pushing in from the west
in advance of an approaching upper trough, but this drier air will
not reach the eastern portion until Saturday. Gusty winds and
localized blowing dust will again accompany the storms, though
additional moisture east of the Rio Grande may allow a few spots
there to get some much needed rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Friday night moisture will be still over much of the CWA with
thunderstorms likely ongoing at the beginning of the period
coming off the higher terrain. Best chances will be east of the
Rio Grande where highest moisture remains in place. Instability
still limited, but gusty winds and maybe some small hail is
possible. Going into Saturday, an upper low will be very slowly
moving through northern CA with upper and lower flow turning more
southwest and pushing the moisture out of the area. Winds will
pick up to about 15-25 mph in the late afternoon. Enough low level
moisture may linger over the Sacs for a storm or two to develop,
but generally do not expect any storm activity.

The California upper low will continue to slowly move SE through
Monday and southwest flow increases over the area. Expect daily
breezy to windy conditions going with high temperatures near
normal around 90 degrees for the lowlands. Even with a decent
upper low moving into the area, the moisture doesn`t accompany it
so do not expect any storms with the passage of the upper low
which looks to be passing area Tuesday. Now on the back side of
this low Tuesday, some moisture may wrap around and bring a few
storms to the east and higher elevations. Temperatures will cool
down a few degrees with this system passing to our north.

For the end of the period, another upper low moves into the Great
Basin/southwest U.S. with southwest flow returning and
temperatures rebound back toward 90 degrees with breezy
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An increase in low level moisture from southeast breezes has lowered
the fire danger somewhat, and this will continue into Friday. A few
thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially near the
international border and over the Sacramento Mountains.
Unfortunately the storms will be high based with strong gusty winds
and even some dry lightning possible. Friday will bring even more
moisture to the area east of the Continental Divide, with
thunderstorms a little more numerous and even some wetting rains
possible in that area. Meanwhile, dry air will begin pushing in from
Arizona during the afternoon west of the divide.

Moisture sweeps out of the region Saturday with dry west winds
returning. Temperatures will also warm a bit to slightly above
normal. Afternoons beginning Saturday will be breezy, but should
stay below critical levels. High mixing heights, typical of the
season, and fair wind speeds, will keep the ventilation categories
high. Of concern during this period will be any lightning caused
fires that start this evening and Friday.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  90  65  91 /  20  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca           56  83  57  87 /  30  30  30  10
Las Cruces              60  86  58  88 /  20  20  20   0
Alamogordo              58  88  58  88 /  20  40  30  20
Cloudcroft              45  65  45  64 /  30  60  30  20
Truth or Consequences   58  84  58  89 /  10  40  20   0
Silver City             56  82  55  81 /  10  20  20   0
Deming                  55  91  56  89 /  10  20  20   0
Lordsburg               57  90  57  88 /   0  20  20   0
West El Paso Metro      65  91  65  90 /  20  20  20   0
Dell City               55  88  57  90 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Hancock            60  91  59  92 /  30  20  30   0
Loma Linda              57  83  58  85 /  20  30  30  10
Fabens                  62  91  62  92 /  20  30  20   0
Santa Teresa            59  89  60  89 /  20  20  20   0
White Sands HQ          61  88  63  88 /  20  30  20  10
Jornada Range           58  85  54  87 /  20  20  20   0
Hatch                   58  88  59  89 /  10  20  20   0
Columbus                59  90  62  89 /  10  20  30   0
Orogrande               58  88  60  87 /  20  30  30  20
Mayhill                 48  75  53  76 /  30  60  30  20
Mescalero               48  75  51  76 /  30  60  30  20
Timberon                44  73  48  73 /  30  50  30  20
Winston                 44  77  45  81 /  20  50  20   0
Hillsboro               54  84  55  86 /  20  20  20   0
Spaceport               55  84  57  86 /  20  30  20   0
Lake Roberts            50  83  42  79 /  10  20  20   0
Hurley                  50  85  50  83 /  10  20  20   0
Cliff                   47  92  46  89 /   0  20  20   0
Mule Creek              53  85  45  84 /   0  20  10   0
Faywood                 55  85  55  83 /  10  20  20   0
Animas                  54  91  56  89 /  10  20  20   0
Hachita                 54  90  56  88 /  10  20  20   0
Antelope Wells          56  90  57  87 /  10  20  20   0
Cloverdale              56  85  56  82 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird/27/27


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