Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 241143
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
543 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW050 SCT250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be relatively strong and from the northwest
between 15 and 25kts with possible gusts up to 35kts between 15Z
and 06Z Wednesday. The winds will decrease thereafter to below
10kts. There will be no reduction in the VIS across much of the
runways expected at KTCS between 18Z and 05Z Wednesday due to
smoke in the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...428 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing disturbance through an upper trough over the region
will strengthen winds today for a breezy to windy afternoon.
Northwest winds across the area will drop temperatures a couple of
degrees, but highs will be very near seasonal averages. Winds
will be in the 20 to 30 mph range this afternoon. Coupled with
warm and dry conditions, wild fire concerns will be elevated. High
pressure aloft will move over the Borderland to drive up
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday while also lowering winds
speeds. Friday through the weekend the next Pacific trough moves
in to keep the region breezy to windy, while also keeping
conditions warm and dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
A trough of low pressure will be located across parts Central Plains
and the Southern Mississippi Valley impacting those areas while the
Borderland will be at its dry base slightly west of its axis. A few
clouds are possible before midday especially areas mainly east of
the Rio Grande as the this system gradually digs south
southeastward. The center of this system will be across the CO/NW/TX
border in the afternoon and with some energy rotating around it,
there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across
Sacramento Mountains. I should emphasis that this is a slight chance
only as much of the hi-res models keep convection outside of our
CWA. Also, the winds will increase mainly in the afternoon with low
pressure near the surface. In addition to the winds, smoke from the
BLack Fire could be an issue across parts of the Grant and Sierra
county at least through the afternoon. With a strong northwesterly
flow, the high temperature for El Paso will be at or slightly below
the climatological normal.
For tonight, the winds will begin to settle as the pressure gradient
relaxes. This is due to high pressure near the surface building in
across the New Mexico. Some clouds may linger across the far eastern
CWA as the trough meanders across the South Plains. With clear skies
and light winds, the low temperature in the morning for El Paso will
be several degrees below the normal temperature for this time of the
year.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Memorial Day...
We start the long term, Wednesday and Thursday, under a ridge of
high pressure aloft. We will have deep westerly flow with warming
and drying conditions. This feature will also lighten our winds.
Temperatures will warm quickly Wednesday with afternoon highs
around 5-7 degrees above normal. Winds will fall below breezy
levels for these two days. The atmosphere will be deeply dry
leading to few to no clouds and plenty of sun and stars.
Friday the ridge will quickly shift east as a shortwave trough
races eastward across the Southwest Deserts. This will induce a
lee surface trough over SE CO and NE NM. We will see increasing
low-level pressure gradients giving rise to stronger afternoon
winds from the west. We will continue dry and further increase our
heat, as lowland locations approach 100 degrees for the next
several days. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will all be hot, and
very dry, with breezy to windy afternoon conditions. This will
greatly elevate the fire weather concerns across the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist today across much of the zones the winds
marginal for fire weather concerns. The temperatures will be on the
cool side. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from midday until 8 p.m.
for most of the zones expect for zone 113. For Wednesday, the
moisture will continue to be low across most of the area except
across parts of the Sacramento Mountains. The temperatures will
continue on the cool side across east of the Rio Grande. The winds
will decrease by then; thus, there will be no fire weather concerns
on Wednesday. For the rest of the period expect dry conditions with
the winds light on Wednesday and Thursday but then a bit more breezy
on the Friday. The temperatures will increase a couple of the
degrees each consecutive day.
The min RHs will be mainly at and below 15% through the end of the
week. The ventilation rates will be excellent today then good to
excellent the rest of the week.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 90 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 83 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 87 49 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 84 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 60 35 60 42 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 85 51 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 79 52 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 88 47 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 85 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 88 56 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 87 46 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 90 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 82 48 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 90 53 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 87 50 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 87 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 85 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 87 50 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 87 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 87 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 72 36 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
Mescalero 69 37 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
Timberon 70 41 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 78 42 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 83 52 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 85 48 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 80 43 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 82 44 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 89 38 93 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 81 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 82 51 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 87 51 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 86 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 87 52 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 82 53 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ110>112.
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
36-Texeira/14/36