Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 241143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
543 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022

...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW050 SCT250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be relatively strong and from the northwest
between 15 and 25kts with possible gusts up to 35kts between 15Z
and 06Z Wednesday. The winds will decrease thereafter to below
10kts. There will be no reduction in the VIS across much of the
runways expected at KTCS between 18Z and 05Z Wednesday due to
smoke in the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...428 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing disturbance through an upper trough over the region
will strengthen winds today for a breezy to windy afternoon.
Northwest winds across the area will drop temperatures a couple of
degrees, but highs will be very near seasonal averages. Winds
will be in the 20 to 30 mph range this afternoon. Coupled with
warm and dry conditions, wild fire concerns will be elevated. High
pressure aloft will move over the Borderland to drive up
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday while also lowering winds
speeds. Friday through the weekend the next Pacific trough moves
in to keep the region breezy to windy, while also keeping
conditions warm and dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
A trough of low pressure will be located across parts Central Plains
and the Southern Mississippi Valley impacting those areas while the
Borderland will be at its dry base slightly west of its axis. A few
clouds are possible before midday especially areas mainly east of
the Rio Grande as the this system gradually digs south
southeastward. The center of this system will be across the CO/NW/TX
border in the afternoon and with some energy rotating around it,
there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across
Sacramento Mountains. I should emphasis that this is a slight chance
only as much of the hi-res models keep convection outside of our
CWA. Also, the winds will increase mainly in the afternoon with low
pressure near the surface. In addition to the winds, smoke from the
BLack Fire could be an issue across parts of the Grant and Sierra
county at least through the afternoon. With a strong northwesterly
flow, the high temperature for El Paso will be at or slightly below
the climatological normal.

For tonight, the winds will begin to settle as the pressure gradient
relaxes. This is due to high pressure near the surface building in
across the New Mexico. Some clouds may linger across the far eastern
CWA as the trough meanders across the South Plains. With clear skies
and light winds, the low temperature in the morning for El Paso will
be several degrees below the normal temperature for this time of the
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Memorial Day...
We start the long term, Wednesday and Thursday, under a ridge of
high pressure aloft. We will have deep westerly flow with warming
and drying conditions. This feature will also lighten our winds.
Temperatures will warm quickly Wednesday with afternoon highs
around 5-7 degrees above normal. Winds will fall below breezy
levels for these two days. The atmosphere will be deeply dry
leading to few to no clouds and plenty of sun and stars.

Friday the ridge will quickly shift east as a shortwave trough
races eastward across the Southwest Deserts. This will induce a
lee surface trough over SE CO and NE NM. We will see increasing
low-level pressure gradients giving rise to stronger afternoon
winds from the west. We will continue dry and further increase our
heat, as lowland locations approach 100 degrees for the next
several days. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will all be hot, and
very dry, with breezy to windy afternoon conditions. This will
greatly elevate the fire weather concerns across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist today across much of the zones the winds
marginal for fire weather concerns. The temperatures will be on the
cool side. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from midday until 8 p.m.
for most of the zones expect for zone 113. For Wednesday, the
moisture will continue to be low across most of the area except
across parts of the Sacramento Mountains. The temperatures will
continue on the cool side across east of the Rio Grande. The winds
will decrease by then; thus, there will be no fire weather concerns
on Wednesday. For the rest of the period expect dry conditions with
the winds light on Wednesday and Thursday but then a bit more breezy
on the Friday. The temperatures will increase a couple of the
degrees each consecutive day.

The min RHs will be mainly at and below 15% through the end of the
week. The ventilation rates will be excellent today then good to
excellent the rest of the week.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           83  50  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              87  49  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              84  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              60  35  60  42 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   85  51  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             79  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  88  47  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      88  56  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               87  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            90  50  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  48  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  90  53  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            87  50  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          87  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  49  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   87  50  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                87  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               87  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 72  36  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               69  37  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                70  41  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 78  42  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               83  52  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               85  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            80  43  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  82  44  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   89  38  93  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              81  49  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 82  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  87  51  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 86  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          87  52  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              82  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>112.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

36-Texeira/14/36


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