532
FXUS62 KFFC 121900
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Heat will continue to build from Friday into the weekend with
    heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s, potentially
    exceeding 105 in some areas by Saturday.

  - A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
    this afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5)
    is in place in far north Georgia.

  - A stormier weather pattern returns from late weekend into
    early next week. Several inches of rainfall will be possible
    across much of north and central Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface and mid-level ridging is currently extending from the Deep
South to as far northeast as New York, which is continuing to
contribute to the steady warming trend across the region. Hot and
humid conditions will persist through the short term period. In all
but the far northern mountains, high temperatures today will climb
into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s will lead to heat index ("feels like"
temperature) values in the upper 90s to near 100 in areas along and
north of I-85 and between 100-104 degrees in areas to the south. For
now, this remains below Heat Advisory criteria, though anyone
planning to spend time or do anything strenuous outdoors should use
caution, as this is the warmest we`ve been so far this year and it
takes time to reacclimate to Georgia summer.

In the midst of hot and humid conditions, SBCAPE values have
increased to between 2500-3500 J/kg. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms have begun to develop as a result, with the
greatest coverage in east-central Georgia where atmospheric
moisture and instability are greatest. Drier air aloft above the
700 mb level has helped limit the coverage of these diurnal storms
and capped their vertical growth. Severe weather thus appears to
be unlikely with these diurnal storms, though they could still be
capable of producing frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 40
mph. Furthermore, with precipitable water values of nearly 2
inches, stronger storms that develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. The combination of heavy rainfall rates, weak
steering flow, and slow storm motion could produce isolated flash
flooding, most likely in urban or low-lying areas.

As this has been going on, the axis of a trough has swung through
the lower Midwest, driving a cold front trough Tennessee and towards
north Georgia. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front had entered the far northwest corner of Georgia at the
time of this writing. As the trough axis quickly moves away to the
east, the progression of the cold front will stall and forcing ahead
of it will quickly weaken. Storms could nonetheless get an
additional push southward from convective cold pooling, though the
lack of upper level dynamics and shear often means that cold pools
eventually outpace storms even in spite of strong instability. This
likelihood will increase in the late afternoon and early evening as
storms continue south, which adds up to higher PoPs across the far
northern tier in the early/mid afternoon and progressively lower
PoPs to the south in the late afternoon/early evening. With the
aforementioned strong SBCAPE and DCAPE values between 750-1000 J/kg,
an isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the
leading edge of the cold pool, which will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and warranting a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather across far north Georgia.

With the cold front stalling before reaching Georgia, another hot
and humid day are forecast on Saturday, dewpoints rising a few
degrees into the low to mid 70s areawide and high temperatures
forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s in north Georgia and mid
to upper 90s in central Georgia. Heat indices are expected to be
highest along and south of a line from Columbus to Athens, which
could exceed Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. A potential
point of uncertainty would be the coverage of convection and how
quickly it develops. Increased coverage would serve to limit heat
indices, and thus decisions on advisory will be made either this
evening or overnight. Speaking of convection, that will be tricky on
Saturday. In the absence of shear or organized forcing, initiation
is expected to be diurnally-driven and then persist through the
afternoon and early evening. It appears development and coverage
will have some dependency on where residual outflows linger from
today. Hi-res guidance continues to favor central Georgia for the
best convective chances where mild moisture convergence is
anticipated.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Extended forecast period kicks off with a transition to a wetter,
more active weather pattern that holds through next week. The first
features is a short wave impacting the area Sunday, returning
categorical rain chances of 70-80% over north Georgia. At this time,
severe risk is low, particularly as the forcing is offset to the
north, but with PWATs near or above 2 inches, showers and
thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producers.

On Monday, a frontal system will focus showers and thunderstorm
development along its axis as it stalls over north/middle Georgia
Monday and Tuesday. The enhanced moisture, combined with the
anchoring front, will produce a heavy rainfall and flooding concern
over the area. Rainfall amounts are highly dependent on where the
boundary sets up and the level of storm training or redevelopment
occurs over an area. WPC`s guidance has backed off slightly on
totals in the last 12-24 hours -- favoring amounts under 2 inches
Monday through Thursday -- but the spread in the ensemble 25th and
75th percentiles of accumulated precipitation (1-1.5 inches) show
that it`s still possible to see meaningful QPF increases into next
week.

Though shower and thunderstorm activity has the typical diurnal ebb
and flow in coverage and intensity, in this wetter pattern, activity
is unlikely to completely shut off in the overnight hours.

The trade off with the wet weather is the return to more moderate
summer highs for Georgia. Sunday appears to be the last day for
upper 80s and low 90s, with  the rest of the week generally in the
low to mid 80s. It`s possible that Tuesday (the wettest day) could
top out in the upper 70s in many north/west Georgia locations (6 to
10 degrees below climatology).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are in place across north and central GA, with a
cu field between 040-050 expected across the area this afternoon.
The development of isolated convection in and south of the ATL has
warranted the inclusion of prevailing VCSH and a PROB30 for -SHRA
from 18-20Z. More organized SHRA/TSRA entering far north GA is
anticipated to remain north of all TAF sites before dissipating.
Winds will be W/NW at 5-10 kts this afternoon, diminishing to 3-6
kts after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on precipitation timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  96  73  93 /  10  20  20  50
Atlanta         75  93  74  90 /  10  20  20  60
Blairsville     68  87  67  84 /  20  30  20  80
Cartersville    74  91  73  90 /  20  30  30  80
Columbus        75  98  75  95 /  10  20  20  50
Gainesville     73  91  72  89 /  10  20  10  50
Macon           76  97  74  93 /  10  20  30  50
Rome            73  90  73  88 /  30  30  30  80
Peachtree City  74  94  73  91 /  10  20  20  60
Vidalia         78  99  77  96 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...King