Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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991
FXUS62 KFFC 222333
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

A broad area of upper-level troughing encompasses the eastern
half or so of the CONUS, with north and central GA beneath
southwesterly flow. PWAT ranges from 1.7" to 2.0", and the FFC
morning sounding shows moisture well-distributed through the
atmospheric column. MUCAPE is analyzed at ~2000 J/kg, but mid-
level lapse rates are meager. Persistent cloud cover through the
morning and early afternoon delayed shower development and
convective initation, so the first of the afternoon showers and
storms are just now beginning. Expect coverage to increase over
the next few hours, but most CAMs indicate that coverage will not
be as widespread as the previous couple of days. Steering winds
aloft have increased compared to the previous couple of days, so
storm motion should be less conducive to localized flash flooding
concerns. That said, any especially efficient rainfall-producing
storms that train over the same area could lead to drainage issues
and nuisance flooding, as SPoRT-LIS near-surface soil moisture
exceeds the 70th percentile across much of the CWA. Frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning is expected with storms, and precip-
loading in downdrafts could lead to damaging wind gusts of 40-50
mph. A severe storm with even stronger gusts cannot be ruled out.

The continued moisture advection and broad-scale ascent will
allow for periods of isolated to scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms overnight. The lack of well-defined disturbances in
the flow aloft make pinning down where exactly precip will occur
overnight difficult, so have gone with slight chance to chance
PoPs (~20% to ~40%). Have adjusted low temperatures up a couple
degrees overall, so expect upper 60s to mid-70s with mid-60s in
the mountains.

No significant pattern change will take place tomorrow (Tuesday)
with continued upper-level troughing as well as similar moisture
and instability parameters to today (although maybe slightly
greater PWAT and an even more saturated atmospheric column
tomorrow). As such, expect scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms with a maximum in coverage in the afternoon and
early evening. Hazards will be locally heavy rainfall and the
possibility of localized flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Again, a severe storm or two
cannot be ruled out. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid-80s to mid-90s (with the warmest conditions in our southern
counties).

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

An active and unsettled weather pattern will continue through
late week. A broad upper level trough axis will keep ribbon of
enhanced moisture across the deep South and Southeast US,
sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day through Saturday. Although isolated strong
to severe storms are possible, the absence of strong dynamic
support should keep convection more garden variety. The main
concern will continue to be localized flash flooding as abnormally
high (1.5-2 inch) PWATs are present and antecedent rainfall and
soil moisture remain high. The combination of precipitation
activity and cloud cover will produce more mild high temperatures
this week, with most of the area topping out in the 80s.

Late-term guidance continues to indicate a shift in the weather
pattern by Sunday as subtropical ridge returns to the area.
Moisture trapped beneath the ridge will still support diurnal
convection, but coverage is expected to be more traditionally
summer-like than we`ve had the last week or so.

LGB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Mostly low-VFR through the remainder of the eve. Iso SHRA across
Central GA. Confidence is low in the development of TS. Should
TS get going, further TS development is expected. Pushed back
TEMPO through 02Z for this. Iso SHRA should continue into very
early hours tmw morn. MVFR/IFR cigs and or MVFR vsby at all site,
though likely brief south of ATL. More widespread tsra expected
tomorrow aftn and eve. Winds remain out of SSW to SW at 8kts or
less through the period. Gusty and variable winds psbl near tsra.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence TS this evening.
Medium confidence cigs/vsby south of ATL tomorrow morning. High
all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  89 /  40  60  50  80
Atlanta         72  87  72  87 /  40  70  50  90
Blairsville     66  81  67  80 /  40  80  60  90
Cartersville    70  86  71  85 /  40  80  60  90
Columbus        73  92  74  90 /  40  60  40  90
Gainesville     71  85  71  85 /  40  70  60  80
Macon           72  92  73  91 /  50  50  40  90
Rome            71  86  71  84 /  50  80  60  90
Peachtree City  71  88  71  88 /  40  60  50  90
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  50  40  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...SM