Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 061945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Latest satellite loop shows some CU developing across the with
some isolated storms developing along the old boundary that moved
into the area early this morning. This boundary is located just
north of downtown ATL and just South of AHN. Its moving slowly
south so should see some more storms pop up across the ATL and
areas south and east of the city. An Omega block pattern remains
in place across the majority of the CONUS through the short term
but it does begin to break down towards the end of the week. A
persistent upper high remains centered over the Northern Plains,
while cutoff lows are positioned near the southern California
coast upstream of the high and in the Canadian Maritimes
downstream. The northeastern closed low is expected to weaken some
over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves onshore the new england
states. A weakening frontal boundary rotating south around the
back side of the main low center will move out of KY/TN Wed and
into N GA Wed night.

The boundary laying across the area now and the reinforcing
boundary moving in Wed night will keep diurnally driven showers
across the area through Thu. There is not much instability across
the area so not expecting any widespread convective outbreaks. We
will mainly see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
with some becoming strong.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning are expected to be in the low
60s across the far northern tier, and in the mid to upper 60s
elsewhere across the area. High temperatures will once again be in
the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday afternoon.



(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

No major changes to the forecast at this time. Still anticipating
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into the evening as FROPA pushes through the CWA. Highest
confidence for PoPs is across central/east-central GA as diurnal
heating kicks in with FROPA lifting mechanism. Dry conditions
expected to kick off the start of the weekend with PoPs returning
on Sunday.

See previous discussion..

As we move into Thursday and the start of the long term, the
presiding Omega block across the majority of CONUS remains the key
feature for sensible weather. With bookend closed lows set up across
California and New England and a high amplitude ridge across the
country`s midsection, the Southeast is progged to be situated right
on the western periphery of the New England low. Beginning very
early Thursday morning, a shortwave rounding the base of the broader
trough to our north pushes an expansive frontal boundary into
northern Georgia. Slight differences exist among global models and
ensembles regarding the strength of the associated moisture
gradient/frontal forcing, but for now chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will increase roughly from from north to
south for the better part of the day Thursday. Given weak deep layer
shear and CAPE progged to be on the order of 500-1000 J/kg,
expecting any storms that form to be primarily pulse in nature, with
chances for any organized severe weather very low at this time.

Beginning Friday, the center of the New England low begins to slide
eastward, leaving the majority the country east of the Mississippi
under the influence of northwesterly flow through Saturday, ushering
in a pocket of dry continental air from across central Canada.
Meaningful PoPs are thus unlikely to return until Monday, and any
afternoon development Friday through Sunday is likely to be across
our far southern tier, in the vicinity of the stalled front across
the Florida panhandle.

Next week sees the breakdown of the Omega block, with a secondary
lobe of low pressure developing across the Great Lakes and forcing
the lingering New England low offshore. This opens the door for
subsequent shortwave activity as disturbances traverse the outer
edge of the closed low (and at present, this feature looks to remain
quasi-stationary through the end of the period). Expect this to
materialize in the form of heightened chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Highs look to be in the 80s to
near-90 (just a few degrees above average for early June) and lows
in the upper-50s to 60s each day.



(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Some CU beginning to develop across the area but staying VFR.
Expect to see SHRA/TSRA pop up over the next few hours along the
old boundary laying across the area from yesterdays convection. It
looks like the boundary is between the ATL and MCN areas so any
of our TAF sites could see some precip this afternoon/evening.
Winds expected to stay out of the West in the 6-12kt range. Will
see some higher gust in and around any convective activity.
Ceilings and VSBYs will stay in the VFR range but may get down
into the MVFR range with afternoon storms today and Wed afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements



Athens          65  90  64  80 /  10  20  30  50
Atlanta         68  89  66  81 /  10  20  20  40
Blairsville     56  82  56  76 /   0  30  40  30
Cartersville    63  89  62  81 /   0  20  20  40
Columbus        67  90  67  89 /   0  30  20  40
Gainesville     64  88  64  80 /   0  20  30  40
Macon           68  91  67  88 /  10  30  20  50
Rome            63  90  62  83 /   0  20  30  30
Peachtree City  65  89  64  83 /   0  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  92  69  91 /  10  40  30  60




LONG TERM....Morgan
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