269
FXUS62 KFFC 141124
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
624 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Key Message:

 - Dry weather and slightly below average temperatures (2 to 7
   degrees) are expected through Wednesday.

Today, Tonight & Wednesday:

Uneventful weather is anticipated in Georgia during this period. A
surface high in place across the region today will be reinforced by
a secondary high building in from the Plains on Wednesday. The
surface pressure gradient trends associated with this pattern will
keep west to northwest winds moving across the state. Wind speeds
should be modest (4 to 12 mph). CAA (driven by the surface winds)
should keep temperatures below seasonal averages through Wednesday,
and we anticipated afternoon highs and morning lows that are 2 to 7
degrees below average. Winds chills will be in the teens this
morning and 20s Wednesday morning. Skies should generally be partly
cloudy with a mix of mid and high level cloud cover. The exception
to this rule may occur in the north Georgia mountains tonight, when
a weak frontal boundary (associated with a shortwave moving through
the Ohio Valley) may increase low level cloud cover. There is very
small potential for snow flurries (< 10%) along the northwest facing
mountain slopes as this feature moves through.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

At a glance:

 - Temps will be pleasant this week before the next weekend`s
   rain.

 - Gusty winds will be likely through the week.

High pressure will dominate much of the southeast with it`s center
over the panhandle of FL. This will allow high temperatures to
recover to seasonal or even slightly above with highs in the 40s,
50s and even 60s toward the end of the work week. Wind gusts as high
as 15-20mph will be likely this week.

Toward the end of the week, the next system approaches. Rain is
expected to begin on Saturday morning and push off by Sunday
morning. Still looking at a widespread total of less than an inch
and a half for most of the CWA.

Sunday afternoon and into Monday will give us a chance to dry out,
but temps drops pretty substantially behind that system and while
models agree with that statement, that`s pretty much where any
remaining agreement ends. The GFS is spinning up a gulf low and
pushing it through the SE. Given the cold temps and overnight lows
well below freezing, this solution would result in a wintery mess
across much of Georgia. The ECMWF on the other hand, is bone dry.
The major difference between the two is where the weak trough in the
upper level wants to propagate. The Euro keeps that trough to the
south and over the Gulf which results in the drier solution. Pops
have been limited as a result, and weather elements have been kept
at either rain, or wintery mix in the south to show lack of
confidence in the forecast.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR conditions (SKC-FEW AOA 20,000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will continue through at least 18Z Wednesday. Winds
will be from the west or northwest (280-360 degrees) at 4 to 12
kt. Wind gusts in the 16 to 24 kt range could occur before 22Z
today.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence in the KATL TAF.


Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  29  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         45  29  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     42  20  41  19 /   0  10   0   0
Cartersville    45  24  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        54  32  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     47  28  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           54  31  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            46  24  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  48  27  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         55  35  56  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Albright