Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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565 FXUS62 KFFC 132055 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 455 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 ...Afternoon Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 448 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Forecast required a quick update this afternoon to better reflect the cooler airmass left in the wake of this morning/early afternoon`s precipitation, so have lowered temperatures by a few degrees areawide. Additionally, a wake low has developed across portions of west central and southwest central Georgia, and gusts to 40-45 mph are possible for areas south of the Atlanta Metro and east of Macon through approximately 6:30 PM this evening. Unsecured outdoor items and furniture may be blown around, and trees and powerlines may be downed in areas that have more saturated soils from recent rainfall. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Current Mosaic radar loop shows mainly showers moving across North and Central GA this afternoon. There are a few lightning strikes mainly south of MCN and CSG but the main area of thunderstorms is staying along the Gulf coast. With these storms hugging the gulf coast over the next 24 hours and the best instability and atmospheric energy staying south as well it makes sense that SPC has pulled the marginal risk out of north and central GA and keeping it across South GA Forecast rainfall totals through tonight have also been reduced due to the decreased convective potential, and we now expect amounts in the 0.20 to 0.90 inch range through 8 AM Tuesday mainly across central GA. As for Tuesday a weak shortwave trough should rotate around the parent trough in the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning. This should lead to a relative peak in rainfall coverage across the state. Clearing skies behind the shortwave and diurnal heating should result in the development of scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Though mid-level lapse range appear modest (5.5-6.0 C/km), increasing instability (SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km shear values between 20 and 35 kt could generate a couple of strong or severe thunderstorms. The main hazards with any storms are expected to be damaging winds, periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning strikes, and hail. The storm prediction center currently has all of North and Central GA painted with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish after sunset Tuesday with some showers continuing across North GA with the wrap around moisture from the parent low over IL/IN/KY. 01 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Looking at the week ahead beginning with Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area as the low pressure system to the north moves off into the Atlantic. Following this system slight ridging sets up to the west causing us to have a dry period into Thursday as our next system sets up. This dry period will accompany a slight warmup but overall a pleasant week is expected. Looking at the next system, there relies a bit of model spread at this point. A low pressure system moves eastward across the mid Mississippi valley bringing us rainfall for Friday along with a cool down into the mid to upper 70s for highs. Where the uncertainty comes is whether the system will become cutoff and mainly affect southern GA through the weekend or if we will see this rainfall into north and central GA. Currently kept PoPs relatively on trend from the overnight package, but increased rainfall will be something to watch for central GA into the weekend should this system track further north. Current rainfall amounts are 2-2.5" over 18 hours but our Pwats are anonymously higher for this time of year with Pwats close to 2.5" forecasted which remains a concern. Will keep watching this as the week progresses. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Ceilings are mainly VFR with precip ending across the ATL/AHN area TAF sites. Will continue to see precipitation across CSG/MCN for a few more hours. expecting MVFR and IFR ceilings to move in after sunset and stay across the area through early Tue afternoon. Will also see some light showers/drizzle overnight through Tue morning ahead of the next round of precip moving back in across the state Tue Afternoon. VSBYs are also in the VFR range but will fall into the MVFR range over night with the lowered ceilings. They should comeback into the VFR range as the ceilings lift Tue. Winds are out of the East right now and will turn to the SE this evening then to the SW just after daybreak Tue. Wind speeds will stay in the 6-12kt range. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence medium to high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 61 76 62 81 / 80 90 70 30 Atlanta 62 77 63 80 / 60 90 70 30 Blairsville 56 70 57 73 / 70 80 80 70 Cartersville 61 77 61 79 / 50 90 70 40 Columbus 65 80 66 83 / 60 100 50 10 Gainesville 61 73 63 78 / 70 90 70 50 Macon 64 79 65 83 / 60 90 50 10 Rome 62 77 61 80 / 40 90 70 40 Peachtree City 62 78 63 81 / 50 90 60 20 Vidalia 66 81 69 86 / 70 90 60 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...01