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636
FXUS63 KFGF 081949
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated thunderstorms in northwest Minnesota Friday.

- Continued shower chances through the weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The upper low continues to sag south amid weak 500mb flow with
deformation along the north edge producing a broad cumulus field
this afternoon in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
This is still expected to pop in the next few hours and yield a few
showers along and south of HWY 2 though sunset. Closer to the low on
the SD border instability of a few hundred CAPE should be enough for
some weak thunderstorms though not seeing any lighting north of the
Sioux Falls forecast area yet. Once this low drifts far enough south
the clouds will dissipate for the night as lows fall into the 40s
tonight. Not expecting much in terms of fog though isolated pockets
cant be ruled out as we cool past the afternoon dewpoint, a good
proxy for fog potential.

Ridge begins to then build east and dominate flow over the western
and central CONUS for the next few days. A shortwave rounding the
ridge on friday could produce some scattered thunderstorms in
northwest MN with MLCAPE nearing 500 j/kg and eff shear of 25-30
kts. main concern would be lightning and gusty winds t0 40-50 mph
with inverted V soundings (high LCL near 2000m) and a lower
associated hail threat. Next round of shower activity would be this
weekend with more shortwave activity. chances for widespread rain
look minimal with most of the coming activity looking to be
diurnally aided by weak height falls and sub par instability for
severe weather.

Despite deep mixing on the eastern of the ridge for the next few
days lower relative humidity in the 20-40% range through early next
week is not expected to cause fire weather concerns between a low
fire danger per MN DNR and recent rains helping to saturate fuels.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Largely VFR this afternoon with a less than 20 percent chance
for some showers to form from DVL to BJI from 4pm to 10pm. CU
could occasionally become broken creating a ceiling below 6000
but but showers would be the only hindrance to aviation this
afternoon. The light northeast winds turn more due northerly
overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT