Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211643

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
943 AM MST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front is pushing through the area today
bringing gusty southwest winds, much cooler temperatures, and
scattered rain and snow showers. Gusty northeasterly winds will
continue on Tuesday, with cool daytime temperatures. Quiet weather
with a gradual warming trend is anticipated through the remainder
of the week.


.DISCUSSION...Active weather across northern Arizona this morning
as a strong cold front approaches the area. Very strong wind gusts
have already been reported across the region with the highest
gusts seen at the Springerville Airport (67 mph) and the Winslow
Airport (52 mph). Numerous other locations have reported wind
gusts in the 40-50 mph range. These gusty winds will continue and
expand in coverage as the strong winds aloft mix to the surface
through the morning and early afternoon. Winds will begin to
decrease from west to east from early afternoon through early
evening as the front pushes through the area. Additionally,
scattered rain and snow showers are occurring across Coconino
County with the visibility having earlier fallen to half a mile
at the Grand Canyon Airport. These showers will affect areas along
and north of the Mogollon Rim through this afternoon, but amounts
are still expected to be light. Any snow accumulation is forecast
to be less than two inches. Temperatures are noticeably cooler
today and the wind will make it feel even colder. Daytime highs
will be 10-20 degrees colder than Sunday.

Behind the front expect winds to shift to the west-northwest and
eventually northerly by Tuesday morning. Localized strong gusts
will occur in the favored locations including the San Francisco
Peaks late tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool
on Tuesday at around 5-10 degrees below normal.

Updates were made this morning to increase wind gusts across
Yavapai County, but otherwise the current forecast is on track.


.PREV DISCUSSION /402 AM MST/...A quick moving strong cold front
will punch across the area Today bringing strong gusty winds
across the high country Today, along with a significant drop in
temperatures from Sundays mild values.

A high wind warning remains in effect for much of today in the
White Mountains and Little Colorado River Valley of Apache County
due to potentially damaging winds. Elsewhere along and north of
the Mogollon Rim, a wind advisory is in effect today due to
potentially hazardous winds, especially for high profile vehicles.

Some snowfall will be possible with the passage of the cold front,
however snowfall amounts currently are forecast to be light, with
only an inch or two possible at the higher elevations.

As the system exits the area, a high amplitude ridge will develop
just off the Pacific Coast, leaving the Four Corners region in the
dry, cool, and potentially breezy quadrant. Shortwave energy is
expected to flow down the backside of this ridge throughout the
rest of the week, and could bring reinforcements of cooler air due
to associated backdoor cold fronts. There is also some concern
that a weak inversion could once again develop in the high
altitude valleys of northeastern Arizona, keeping temperatures
cooler than model guidance.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect strong SW winds shifting to
the NW this afternoon and SHRA/SHSN moving west to east across
northern Arizona today with a passing cold front. The strongest
winds will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, where wind gusts
35-45kts are likely. Local gusts to over 50kts are possible in the
vicinity of the White Mountains. Showers and strong winds should end
by 06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will bring gusty southwest winds,
chances for precipitation, and significantly cooler temperatures
today. Continued cold, but dry, weather is expected Tuesday.

.Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will warm back to near
normal through the remainder of the week, with dry weather


this afternoon FOR AZZ005-009>013- 016-039-040.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ014-017.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ004-015.




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