Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
316 AM MST Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect showers and thunderstorms across central and
eastern Arizona through this evening. A few strong thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain, strong winds and hail are possible. Dry
weather is forecast starting Wednesday with above normal high
temperatures this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms
have developed this morning over central and eastern Arizona,
along an instability axis that extends from SE AZ to near
Flagstaff. This activity is forming ahead of the trough moving
across Baja and into S. Arizona.

We expect active weather today across central and eastern Arizona.
The lift ahead of the trough currently over S. California and
Baja will move into Arizona today, and compliment the diurnal
convective response. We expect the ongoing showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the morning, with more
widespread showers and stronger thunderstorms developing with the
heat of the day, most numerous east of Flagstaff. Some storms will
be strong, and a few severe storms are possible. The primary
threats from the storms will be locally heavy rain, hail, and
gusty winds. Those areas vulnerable to flooding with additional
rainfall across the desert east of Flagstaff to the New Mexico
border should be alert for the possibility of rapidly
deteriorating conditions with the passage of the showers and
thunderstorms through this evening.

The aforementioned trough will pass through Arizona tonight,
bringing an end to the precipitation by Wednesday morning. The
rest of the week will be dry, with above normal high temperatures
expected by this weekend as a large ridge builds across the


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Through the early morning, SCT
SHRA/-TSRA will continue to move northeast near KINW and KRQE.
During the daytime, SHRA/TSRA will be most widespread across Navajo
and Apache counties. MVFR conditions and gusty winds possible near
the stronger storms. Outside of the storms, anticipate VFR
conditions and southerly surface winds at 5-15 mph. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The most widespread shower and storm coverage will be
across Navajo and Apache counties Tuesday. Wednesday begins a period
of dry weather that will push across the state from west to east
Tuesday night.

.Thursday through Saturday...Expect dry weather and a gradual
warming trend. Afternoon ventilation fair at best due to light
mixing layer winds.






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