


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
205 FXUS65 KFGZ 162310 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 410 PM MST Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A more active monsoonal period is forecast through Friday, with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today...A weak trough sitting off the coast of Baja California is prevalent in mid-level WV imagery. This sits in conjunction with general ridging over New Mexico and Texas. These features are working to set up an ideal axis of southerly moisture advection into northern AZ. The 18Z FGZ sounding shows precipitable water right around 0.79 inches, up from 0.65 inches at 12Z. We are seeing activity firing along the higher terrain sites as of 1430 MST. Conditions are ideal for cells to stay rather stationary while maintaining high precipitation rates, and there is a risk of flash flooding today. Other than flooding the hazards expected today are hail and gusty outflows to around 35-45 mph. Tonight...Ample moisture will be present well into the overnight hours. Things stay active as we see a transition to lighter and widespread showers northeast of the Mogollon Rim a little after sunset. Additionally, a small vorticity maxima currently apparent in satellite imagery south of Tucson is heading towards northern AZ. This feature could bring a region of overnight showers to Yavapai county lasting through tomorrow morning, but there is some uncertainty in the guidance at this time. Tomorrow and Friday...The low pressure system continues to meander northward and we will see another round of convection initiate around 1200-1300 MST tomorrow. Further periods of locally heavy precipitation are possible. This is complicated by the fact that the latest hi-res model runs are picking up a trend where dry mid-level air wraps around the cyclone and begins to intrude northern AZ. This will help to shut down thunderstorm activity after sunset Thursday, and PW will tick down a bit Thursday afternoon through Friday. Overall high coverage of thunderstorms is still expected each day, but perhaps a bit less numerous than today. Saturday and beyond...Another round of dry air may intrude this weekend. Right now it looks as if it will be wet enough for some scattered-numerous thunderstorm activity on Saturday, but this is still very uncertain. After the trough passes, a period of drier conditions could be in store. However, high pressure out east maintains its structure and keeps enough moisture around for daily isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION...Thursday 17/00Z through Friday 18/00Z...-SHRA/-TSRA will continue through at least 06Z, with -SHRA possible overnight primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Heavier storms will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds (35-45 kts). Outside of outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 5-15 kts. VFR conditions should persist, but brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible in heavier storms. OUTLOOK...Friday 18/00Z through Sunday 20/00Z...SHRA/TSRA will continue through the outlook period, with best chances between 18Z-03Z. Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds, hail, and lightning. Outside of storm driven outflow winds, looks for W-SW winds 5-15 kts. MVFR conditions possible in heavier storms, with VFR conditions expected otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Increasing monsoon moisture will bring numerous thunderstorm Thursday and Friday, capable of producing a wetting rainfall. Gusty/erratic outflow winds and flash flooding will be the primary hazards. Otherwise, daytime winds west through southwest 5-10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, becoming scattered to isolated Sunday and Monday. Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Winds west through southwest 5-10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorm && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff