Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 121724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 AM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Brisk northerly winds and cold temperatures will
persist across the area today. Expect lighter winds and a modest
warming trend back towards normal temperatures by the middle and
end of this week.


.DISCUSSION...A cold and blustery day across northern Arizona with
afternoon high temperatures expected to be around 15 degrees below
normal. Current observations indicate gusts of 30-40 mph with some
locally higher values along the Mogollon Rim and southward. These
winds will gradually relax through the afternoon and evening
hours setting the stage for a cold night tonight. With this
forecast update, we lowered the forecast minimum temperatures
tonight to account for the decreasing winds and cold airmass over
the region. Areas along the Rim will fall well into the teens with
single digits likely in some of the colder locations such as
Bellemont and the South Rim of the Grand Canyon. Otherwise, the
current forecast remains on track and no other changes are needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /411 AM MST/... Cold and breezy conditions will
continue today behind a dry front that passed over the region on
Sunday. A high amplitude ridge off the Pacific Coast will slowly
move inland over the next few days bringing a reinforcing
northerly flow to the region, and limiting the warming of the cold
air mass behind the front. High temperatures are expected to be
around 15 to 20 degrees below climatological values today, with
overnight lows around 10 degrees below normal values. Breezy
northerly winds are expected again today as a strong pressure
gradient remains over the area and daytime mixing allows for some
of the winds to be transported to the surface.

Temperatures will begin to warm on Tuesday, to about 5 to 10
degrees below climatological normals, and will continue to climb
back to near normal Wednesday and through the rest of the week as
the stable dry influence of the large scale ridge of high pressure
remains over the area. Winds are expected to relax each day as the
pressure gradient weakens as the ridge moves further overhead.

By next weekends models begin to diverge over the timing and
location of another shortwave moving south along the rocky
mountains along the back side of the ridge of high pressure. Among
the inconsistencies that could have a major impact on next
weekends weather is the location of the ridge axis and subsequent
location of the shortwave trough. Models solutions show a wide
range of possibilities, with some being another strong cold front
directly over northern Arizona, and the other end of the spectrum
showing a weaker backdoor cold front with limited impacts to the
area. Moisture looks to be limited with the bulk of the solutions,
with dry conditions expected to continue through at least the
next week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. NE winds 15-25g30kts until 01Z Tuesday. Light NE
winds overnight for most locations, with the strongest winds again
along the Mogollon Rim and southwest up to 15kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty north to northeast winds will persist through
today. The strongest winds will occur along and southwest of the
Mogollon Rim. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees below normal
today, with some warming on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Lighter northeast winds and warmer
temperatures are expected, as dry conditions persist.






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