Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
210 PM MST Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and cooler weather is expected this weekend.
Unsettled weather with a chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms are forecast from Monday through Tuesday. Dry and
warmer conditions return starting Thursday.


The fast moving upper level disturbance that brought isolated
showers and thunderstorms to far northern Arizona today will exit
through the 4 corners late this afternoon. Expect fair weather
tonight with breezy S-SW winds across the favored downslope

Sunday - low pressure will move into the Great Basin and push a
dry cold front through our area. Another day of gusty S-SW winds
is in store, with afternoon gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Max temps to
cool an additional 3-6 degrees, which will be near average for
late April.

Monday through Tuesday night - the low pressure system is
forecast to close off over Arizona, and then move slowly from west
to east across the state. Daytime temperatures will remain near
average for late April. Cooler mid level temperatures associated
with the low will combine with increasing mid level moisture will
produce instability and a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms through the period. Most areas that get rain will
see only light amounts.

Wednesday through Saturday - model guidance is in good agreement
that high pressure will move back over the state. Dry conditions
expected with temperatures warming back above seasonal average.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies for the next 24 hrs. Winds SW at 15-25 kts gusting 25-35
kts will diminish in most areas through this evening. Overnight
expect gusty winds to continue along and NE of higher terrain. SW
winds will pick up again after 15Z Sunday to 10-15 kts gusting 20-25
kts across much of northern Arizona. Winds will be stronger at 15-25
kts gusting 25-35 kts northeast of higher terrain and southeast of
the line KINW-KRQE to the NM border. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions continue Sunday with breezy
southwest winds. Monday has a chance of showers and thunderstorms in
Coconino and northern Apache Counties.

.Tuesday through Thursday...Expect a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and a slight chance Wednesday along the
Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains and over the Chuska Mountains.
Thursday will be warm and dry with westerly breezes.






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