223
FXUS65 KFGZ 182338
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
438 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect only isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the next several days, expect near the White
Mountains, where more numerous activity may develop. Seasonably
warm days continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona will remain somewhat "trapped" in an atypical
pattern for the season, a quasi-permenent weak low to west and high
pressure to the east. Much of our region is stuck in dry and capped
mid-level flow, without many mechanisms to advect moisture north or
west. There is some deeper moisture to our east, which may send
periodic outflows as far west as the I-17 corridor, but then this
moisture will then erode in the drier southwesterly flow over
western Arizona.

So, we stay in roughly the same pattern fo several days, ebbing and
flowing here and there, but favoring the east-central CWA, closest
to any significant outflows. No major changes were made from the
previous package, as aside from higher PoPs over the White
Mountains. The low grade Monsoon continues.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 19/00Z through Sunday 20/00Z...VFR
conditions, isolated thunderstorms possible between 18Z and 03Z.
Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, SW 5-15kts,
gusts to 20kts during the afternoon. Brief MVFR and gusty winds
possible near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 20/00Z through Tuesday 22/00Z...VFR conditions,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each day between 18Z
and 03Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light
and variable or terrain driven overnight. Brief MVFR and gusty
winds possible near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening, most
numerous along the high terrain. Localized wetting rains and
gusty/erratic outflow winds are possible. Away from storms, daytime
winds west/southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day.
Expect seasonably cool temperatures and daily minimum RH 15-30%.

Monday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, with the best chances over the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely
within any stronger storms. Daytime winds west through southwest 5-
10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds
possible in and around thunderstorms. Expect seasonably cool
temperatures and daily minimum RH 15-30%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff