Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
433 AM MST Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A significant moisture increase today will bring
greater thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona. Good chances
for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least Friday.


A notable increase in moisture is pushing northward across Arizona
this morning. A few thunderstorms are likely even before sunrise,
with more widespread coverage by this afternoon. Some models are
indicating enhanced potential for very heavy rain across north-
central AZ today, and Flash Flood Watch has been issued for these

Monsoonal flow will persist for the next several days with daily
rounds of thunderstorms anticipated. Extended range models
indicate a possible change to a drying westerly flow by early
next week. Will continue to monitor this potential shift in the
coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Monsoon moisture will be on the
increase across northern Arizona over the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
morning hours, lasting into the evening. Activity will tend to
form first over central Arizona this morning then spread northward
through the day. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will be on the increase today
and Wednesday. Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms both
days generally most numerous during the daytime into the early
evening hours. Cooler today by 5 to 10 degrees.

Thursday through Saturday...Monsoon moisture will persist across
northern Arizona with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.


MST this morning through this evening FOR AZZ004>007.




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