384
FXUS65 KFGZ 140427
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 PM MST Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon through at least Thursday. Drier and
warmer conditions return Friday through the weekend with winds
increasing as well.

&&

.UPDATE...It took a while this afternoon, but several of the scattered
cumulus clouds that developed over high terrain did end up producing
light rain and a few weak thunderstorms across portions of northern
Arizona. The dry air near the surface helped to minimize the
accumulation of precipitation, but it also allowed for some gusty
conditions due to evaporative cooling. Similar conditions are
expected tomorrow with an uptick in convection. Slight adjustments
were made to the forecast to increase the chance of thunderstorms
so that it meshes with precipitation chances. However, widespread
activity is not expected with QPF remaining on the low end.
Additionally, both morning low and afternoon high temperatures
were raised a tad for Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /426 PM MST/...Despite a ridge being over much of the desert
Southwest, lingering moisture mixed with daytime heating will
allow for showers/thunderstorms to be possible today. The main
area of focus for precipitation will be across the higher
elevations, but accumulation amounts are expected to be minimal.
Winds will generally be out of the west around 5-15 mph, with
localized areas seeing elevated breezes.

Precipitation chances will gradually increase through the middle
of the week, as a low looks to push in from off the California
coast. The NBM continues to fall behind compared to both the U of
A WRF model and SPC HREF guidance in terms of precipitation
chances. Heavy blending/manual editing was necessary to bring
mentionable showers into the forecast for the next few days. Even
with the steady increase in rain chances through the middle of the
week, confidence is low for widespread wetting rains. QPF amounts
favor this low confidence with only a few areas across higher
terrain looking to receive 0.01-0.05" of rainfall between today
and tomorrow, and a few spots creeping towards 0.10" on Wednesday.

A drying/warming trend looks to return by the end of
the week and through the weekend, with afternoon highs ranging
3-10 degrees above normal. Throughout this weekend ridge pattern,
model guidance is suggesting a stronger low building off the
California Coast. There are not many details to share at this
time, with the main impacts likely being a week+ out. On the flip
side, elevated winds could return over the weekend ahead of this
disturbance, but should remain below any advisory/warning
criteria.

Outside of rain, wind, and temperatures, prescribed burns are
continuing to take place (weather permitting), so do not be
surprised by areas of smoke/haze. The Wild Bill Prescribed Burn
began today just north of Bellemont. With the forecast west winds
for today, smoke may be noticed over/near HWY 180 and the Fort
Valley area. The overnight drainage from this burn will likely
impact the Bellemont community/Camp Navajo as well as portions of
I-40.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Light and variable winds overnight will
becoming southwest to west at 5-15 kts Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
showers will come to an end after 02Z but start up again after
18Z over the higher terrain. locally gusty winds near any
showers/thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/00Z through Friday 17/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Afternoon southwest to west winds 5-15 kts
gusting to 20-25 kts. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms
over the higher terrain Wednesday will become isolated on
Thursday. Locally gusty winds near any showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and a few high-based thunderstorms, mainly
confined to the higher elevations. Greatest precipitations chances
are on Wednesday. West to southwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting 20-25
mph each afternoon, with locally higher gusts near storms. Warm
temperatures with minimum RH between 10-25% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm chances
continue, decreasing each day through the end of the week. Westerly
winds around 5-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph on
Saturday. Minimum RH values 15-30% on Thursday, dropping to 10-20%
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff