-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
023
FXUS64 KFWD 261022
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50 to 70% chance) are
  expected north and east of the Metroplex this morning before
  diminishing this afternoon.

- More widespread rain and storms are expected tonight through
  Friday with the highest rain chances (80 to 90 percent) on
  Thursday and Friday.

- Average rainfall totals through the week will range from 1/2 to
  2 inches with highest rain amounts across central Texas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/NEW/
Update:
The current short term discussion still holds with minor
adjustments. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of the Red River Valley and northeast Texas. Storms are
expected to weaken and decrease in coverage through the morning
hours as they slowly move east/southeast. Precipitation should
end in our forecast area by mid-afternoon, potentially a couple
hours earlier than previous guidance.

06Z guidance is also more conservative on the northward expansion
of precipitation during the day on Thursday. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms across southern Texas will somewhat stunt
northward return of moisture into our area, potentially limiting
convection across north Texas until more substantial height falls
and forcing for ascent arrive with the main upper-level
disturbance Thursday night.


Darrah

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Morning/

...Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning...

Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and north of the Red
River Valley. These thunderstorms are oriented along a northwest
to southeast band, and are expected to move southeast across far
northern and northeast Texas through the morning hours on
Wednesday. While the severe weather threat has continued to wane
heading into the overnight hours, isolated pockets of large hail
will still be possible with the strongest updrafts, primarily
north of US-380 and east of I-35. Late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, the focus will switch more to potential impacts
from heavy rain due to the training nature of overnight
convection. A corridor of 1 to 2 inches of rain appears probable
(50 to 70 percent chance) wherever the axis of the training
thunderstorms line up. Current guidance suggests the highest
rainfall amounts will extend from northern Grayson County into
Hopkins County. There is still some uncertainty with the exact
track of these storms, so this band of higher precip may shift
east or west by a county depending on storm configuration through
the overnight hours.

...Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning...

By mid-day Wednesday, showers and storms across northeast Texas
are expected to weaken and move east of our area. Upper-level flow
Wednesday will continue to be split, with a ridge in the polar jet
amplifying over the Rockies while the sup-tropical jet will
feature a shortwave trough over the Baja of Mexico. This trough
is expected to slowly move east over the Mexican Plateau,
resulting in widespread shower and thunderstorm development across
much of central and southern Texas by Wednesday night. The bulk
of this activity will remain well to our south where most of the
synoptic forcing for ascent will reside. As the upper-level trough
slowly shifts east into southern Texas late Wednesday night into
Thursday, height falls and the northward transport of Gulf
Moisture will support the development of widespread rain showers
across central Texas. The greatest rain chances (80 to 90 percent)
look to remain south of the I-20 corridor for the short-term
forecast period.


Darrah
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/Issued 430 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

An upper level trough is anticipated to move slowly eastward
across Texas from Thursday into Friday per latest 00Z guidance.
Main upper level divergence will continue to be focused to our
south across the EWX and HGX areas where the heaviest rain amounts
will occur. However, fairly widespread showers and storms still
look to spread northward through Central Texas on Thursday morning
then into North Texas on Thursday afternoon. This activity will
continue Thursday night before gradually shifting eastward out of
our forecast area on Friday as the upper trough exits. Categorical
pops appear warranted areawide with latest NBM precip chances
peaking in the 80-90 percent range. Latest WPC QPF also appears
more reasonable than earlier in the week, ranging from 1/4 inch in
our far northwest to around 2 inches or more in our far
southeast. SPC Day 3 outlook places our southeast counties in a
marginal risk on Friday. However, while forecast soundings do show
strong low level shear, little to no instability is forecast with
very poor near-moist adiabatic lapse rates. Therefore the
potential for any strong to severe activity in our forecast area
looks low.

Over the weekend, a large and broad H5 trough is forecast to
develop across the western CONUS per 00Z guidance, with stronger
westerly flow setting up a classic West Texas dryline. This
dryline looks to move eastward towards the I-35 corridor by
Saturday night, then into East and Central Texas on Sunday.
Forecast soundings show a very strong cap in place Saturday
through Sunday morning, so no precip is anticipated through that
time. By Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, however, cap looks
to erode enough for at least isolated shower and storm
development in our eastern and southeastern counties. Strong deep
layer shear around 50 knots, high MLCAPE up to 3000 J/Kg, and
steep mid level lapse rates over 8.0 C/km all indicate some
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible.
Tornado threat appears quite low as 0-3km SRH looks to be quite
weak at less than 100 m2/s2. SPC has accordingly included our
eastern half in a slight risk for severe storms on Sunday.

A cold front moving southward through the CWA on Sunday night
will bring much cooler temperatures on Monday with lows in the
mid 40s to mid 50s and highs only in the mid 60s north to the mid
70s south. This cooldown will be shortlived, however, as we warm
back into the mid 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday. Although after the
current forecast period, gulf moisture will rapidly return
northward into North and Central Texas by Wednesday with another
dryline setup and potential for more strong to severe storms
across the region. Tis the season!


Shamburger
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/NEW/
/Through 18Z Thursday/

Widespread convection still looks to remain northeast of the DFW
Metroplex and associated TAF sites. There are some isolated rain
showers that have developed over Denton County which have prompted
the inclusion of VCSH at KDFW and KDAL. There is some uncertainty
with any additional storm development through the morning hours,
though the most likely scenario is storms will continue to remain
just north and east of TAF sites. Northeasterly outflow winds from
these storms are also expected to weaken and return out of the
south/southeast over the next few hours. MVFR stratus across
central Texas is expected to build north into KACT this morning.
There remain some uncertainties with the timing and northward
extent of this cloud deck. However, confidence is high enough to
include MVFR ceilings at KACT from 13Z through 18Z Wednesday.

Darrah
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
-- Changed Discussion --
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  63  75  60  75 /  30   5  50  80  70
Waco                81  64  68  61  73 /   0  20  70  80  70
Paris               70  59  75  60  69 /  70   5  20  50  80
Denton              79  62  75  56  74 /  30   0  50  70  70
McKinney            77  61  75  58  74 /  50   5  40  70  80
Dallas              81  64  75  61  73 /  30   5  50  80  80
Terrell             79  62  74  60  73 /  30   5  50  70  80
Corsicana           82  64  74  61  75 /   5   5  50  70  80
Temple              81  64  68  61  76 /   5  40  90  80  70
Mineral Wells       84  62  75  56  78 /  10   5  70  80  60
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$