Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 051900 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 200 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Another fast-moving system could bring light precipitation to our region Sunday night and Monday, and possibly another round of light snow for the mountains. Seasonably cool and dry weather is otherwise expected through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Saturday...Satellite imagery continues to show some residual low cloudiness over the nrn mountains, but cloud top temps have continued to warm to the point where no significant threat of wintry precip exists. The clouds should gradually diminish late in the day, as will the occasional wind gusts. Over the next 24 hours, a complex split flow upper pattern will continue to slowly evolve, although it will be of little consequence for the western Carolinas, which will remain in the middle of the triumverate of upper lows. Instead, we should be left in the middle of a relative flat upper ridge that supports weak high pressure and temperatures near normal, in spite of clear sky and calm wind tonight. On Sunday, expect more bright sunshine and near normal high temps. Some high clouds streaming out of the next upper low over TX may begin to invade from the southwest in the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Sat: A developing light pcpn event is still expected Sunday night as encroaching southern stream energy aids in blossoming pcpn shield northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensembles continue to adverise mean QPF of less than a tenth of an inch through daybreak Monday and mainly limited to the piedmont. In the critical chillier air over the mountains, thermal profiles still support frozen pcpn, but with only a few hundreths liquid accum expected, hard to believe that any pre-dawn light snow accums would be seen outside of the higher elevations of the SW mtns. In conjunction with potent looking northern stream vort, showers are expected to redevelop and expand on Monday, especially in the mountains in conjunction with llvl caa and upslope flow. Temperatures will remain cool enough across the higher elevations for accumulating snow, maybe even for a higher elevation advisory level event, into Monday evening. With clouds and caa keeping maxes well below normal and vertical temp profiles becoming increasingly supportive of frozen pcpn even across the lower elevations as Monday wears on, will be monitoring the situation closely to see if there is enough lingering moisture to carry precip downstream of the mountains. After a chilly start to the day on Tuesday, widespread 20s for morning minumums, a sunny, brisk and chilly day is on tap featuring maximum temperatures several categories below climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Sat: Deamplyfing flow aloft and rising upper heights are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. This will maintain the dry wx allow maximum temperatures to rebound to above climo values on Thursday. Well upstream of the cwfa on Friday, an increasingly active cold front is progged to progress acrs the mid-south and gulf coast, but lingering quiet and relatively mild conditions are expected in the Southern Appalchains to end the work week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period, with only a few stratocu across parts of NC through sunset. A few gusts are possible at the NC sites as well. All this should diminish with sunset, leaving us with clear sky and a light N or variable wind overnight as high pressure settles in. Sunday should start out clear, with wind returning light from the SE/S. Some high clouds will start to invade in the afternoon. Outlook: Moisture will return Sunday night with cig restrictions possible at times on Monday as another low pressure system lifts out of the Gulf and up the Atlantic Coast. Once that system departs Monday night, the rest of the period should be VFR. Confidence Table... 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 98% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 98% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...PM

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