Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
386 FXPQ50 PGUM 272044 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 644 AM ChST Sun Apr 28 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite shows short-lived, quick moving, isolated showers over the region. Moderate trade winds will prevail. Altimetry shows combined seas of 4 to 5 feet in the far west, and 5 to 7 in the far east of the Marianas. && .Discussion... The forecast was largely unchanged. A fairly dry trade-wind regime will continue through the next several days. A few quick-moving, short-lived showers will pop-up over the week. && .Marine/Surf... Winds are expected to be gentle to moderate through the week. Surf is expected to fall on east facing reefs from 6 to 8 feet down to 4 to 6 feet by then end of the week. Seas are relatively benign for this weeks with 5 to 6 feet. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... The surge in trade winds continues to push across Chuuk, with mainly isolated showers currently over the lagoon in its wake. Convergence is becoming better defined this morning across central and eastern Micronesia, with showers and thunderstorms increasing from near Pohnpei, Kosrae and over towards Majuro. This zone will fluctuate between trade convergence zone and an ITCZ across central and eastern Micronesia for much of the week. Multiple trade troughs and surges will pass through the region as well for the period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected for all forecast points for most of the period, with showers becoming numerous and heavy at times. The trade surge continues to bring fresh winds with strong gusts for Chuuk today, along with seas of 7 to 10 feet, and a Small Craft Advisory continues. In addition, the High Surf Advisory continues through today for east facing reefs of Kosrae, due to the elevated trade swell. Winds will be moderate to fresh for most of the period across the region, along with seas of 5 to 8 feet. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau... A more defined trade trough is pushing across western Micronesia today. Increased showers to numerous for Palau today and mention of heavy downpours based off the deep convection near and to the east. Scattered showers for Yap this morning will likely become isolated this afternoon as the trough shifts west. Showers will generally be more scattered, with a potential for some thunderstorms, for Palau through next week, as multiple troughs/surges push into the republic over the coming days. Mainly isolated trade showers expected for Yap during the week. In addition, a near-equatorial trough with an embedded circulation could develop near to south of Palau by late week, helping to keep the convection potential elevated for Palau, but unlikely to bring much of an increase for Yap. Moderate to fresh winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 feet for Palau and 4 to 7 feet for Yap are expected to continue through Monday. Some strong gusts possible today, especially with heavier downpours in Palau coastal waters. Winds and seas look to decrease as next week progresses and the trade flow diminishes as the NET develops and creeps north. Winds becoming gentle to moderate for Palau and moderate for Yap. Seas look to diminish about two to three feet by the end of next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Bowsher Micronesia: Slagle