Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 171156
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
356 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain and mountain snow will continue today and into
tonight. Fog will be possible in the San Joaquin Valley starting
Friday morning, and is possible Saturday and Sunday morning. A
weak disturbance will impact the area Sunday, followed by an
extended period of dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rain and snow continue over the CWA this morning as the last in a
series of weather systems moves through the region. The cold front
continues to move south through the district and will exit the
region by mid morning. Precipitation has decreased behind the
front, but satellite images show another area of moisture heading
for the central CA coast. This will help regenerate showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the San Joaquin Valley
through the afternoon. Orographics will continue to aid
precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. Snow levels rose to near 8500
feet overnight, but are expected to lower back down to near 7000
feet this morning and down to 5500 to 6000 feet tonight. By then
showers will be diminishing. A winter storm warning continues in
effect for the Sierra Nevada until 10 pm.

Another concern with this system is flash flooding, rock slides
and debris flow, especially over the recent burn scars. A flash
flood watch remains in effect through this evening. A flash flood
warning is in effect for the Ferguson burn scar this morning.

A few showers may continue in the Kern County mountains Friday
morning. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday will be dry as a shortwave
ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Patchy fog is a
possibility in the San Joaquin Valley Friday morning and again
Saturday morning. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure will move
over across the northern part of the CWA, bring a chance of
showers, mainly over the mountain areas Sunday and Sunday night
with a few showers lingering into Monday morning. Medium range
models are in good agreement that a ridge of high pressure will
strengthen over California later Monday and remain through the
rest of next week. This will bring an extended period of dry
weather. As the ridge builds, fog once again will become a strong
possibility in the San Joaquin Valley.



&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread mountain obscuring IFR across the Southern Sierra Nevada
and Tehachapi mountains due to precipitation and low clouds.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the San Joaquin Valley until
00Z Fri. In the San Joaquin Valley, southern Sierra foothills and
Kern County Deserts, areas of MVFR conditions with local IFR
conditions thru 06Z Fri due to low clouds, rain and mist with
improving conditions after 06Z Fri.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening CAZ093-094-096-097.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

&&

$$

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