143
FXUS66 KHNX 122330 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
330 PM PST Sun Jan 12 2025

...Update to Air Quality Issues Section...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures will prevail
this week.

2. Widespread freezing temperatures are forecast across mainly
rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley this morning through
Wednesday morning. There is up to a 95 percent probability for
low temperatures of 32 degrees or below in the rural areas. A
Freeze Warning is in effect from late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

3. Strong northeast to east winds are forecast across eastern
Kern County on Monday and Tuesday. There is up to a 83 percent
probability for wind gusts of 45 mph or higher at Mojave. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 10
AM Monday to 10 PM Tuesday.

4. Latest CPC Outlooks give a 50 to 70 percent chance of
below average temperatures and a 33 to 50 percent chance of
below average precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We currently have a ridge off the coast with a trough over the
Great Basin this morning. However, latest ensembles have a
shortwave develop from this trough and retrograde over Southern
California into the Pacific this afternoon into tomorrow. This
pattern change brings another round of strong winds to the
desert as there is an 83 percent chance of 45 mph gusts or
stronger on Monday for Mojave. This retrograding trough will
provide another round of strong Santa Ana winds to Southern
California which has prompted even more Red Flag Warnings to our
south. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Monday through 10
PM Tuesday for the MOjave Slopes because of the strong winds.

The ensembles agree that by late Monday through Wednesday, a rex
block will be in place thanks to that retrograding trough
finally stopping to a rest and the ridge rebuilding and setting
up over the Pacific Northwest. This rex block will keep the
major fire concerns due to a easterly flow over Southern
California.

In the Valley, the rex block will allow for clear
skies overnight leading to freezing temperatures. From Monday to
Wednesday, there is a 50 to 95 percent chance of freezing
temperatures in the rural areas of the Valley, a 40 to 50
percent chance of freezing temepratures in Hanford, Visalia,
and Merced, and a 10 to 25 percent chance in the major cities of
Bakersfield and Fresno. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until
9 AM on Wednesday because of this.

Ensembles have the trough from the rex block sliding to the east
and merging with a stronger trough sliding in from Canada into
the northern Plains. This will cause the ridge to move east
through the US and a new ridge to develop off the coast. By next
weekend, the ridge will remain off the coast bringing northwest
flow into the area. This pattern goes with the CPC`s latest 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks which give a 50 to 70 percent chance of
below average temperatures and a 33 to 50 percent chance of
below average precipitation.



&&


.AVIATION...
VFR Conditions will prevail until about 6Z when MVFR conditions
return with mist in spots until 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail for the next 24 hours in the Valley.

Sierra and Kern County Desert/Mountains VFR.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday January 13 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.




&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for
CAZ338.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ302-305-306-
309>311-313-316.
&&

$$

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idss/pio......................DH

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