Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 100800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
100 AM PDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm weather to continue for the next couple of
days as high pressure remains over the area. On Tuesday, an upper
level low will bring a slight chance of light snow showers to the
Sierra Crest, with gusty conditions possible in the wind-prone
areas of Kern County. Dry weather is expected to continue across
the San Joaquin Valley through next week.


Ridge axis just off the California Coastline is keeping the area
warm and dry again today. Another round of breezy conditions is
expected to occur just below pass level in Kern County, but model
guidance is showing the gusts up to around 40 mph, which is just
below advisory criteria. Afternoon highs today should be similar
to what they were yesterday as the ridge remains locked in. The
ridge is forecast to amplify a bit on Sunday, so afternoon highs
in the low 80s are expected to occur across the San Joaquin
Valley, which would be several degrees above average for this time
of the year. Currently, the NBM probabilistic data show a 76%
chance of 80 degree heat in Fresno on Sunday, rising to an 83%
chance on Monday. For Bakersfield, the probabilities of reaching
80*F are 58% and 79% for Sunday and Monday respectively.

An upper low will enter the Great Basin on Tuesday, leading to a
cool down of afternoon highs by a few degrees. Blended model
guidance is suggesting there may be just enough instability on
Tuesday afternoon to generate some light snow showers over the
Sierra Crest, but any accumulations would be nominal as there is
no true moisture tap with this system. The main impact on Tuesday
will likely be strong winds in the Mojave Desert. WPC cluster
analysis is pretty consistent in showing the upper jet flowing
favorably over the Tehachapi Mountains by Tuesday afternoon, so a
wind product may be required for these areas. Through the middle
of next week, the upper low is forecast to meander over the Great
Basin as a blocking pattern evolves with a ridge building over
British Columbia. This may allow for a daily occurrences of a snow
shower or two over the Sierra Nevada Crests and will keep
afternoon highs from reaching 80 in the SJ Valley. By the end of
next week, there is agreement between the EPS and GEFS of the
Eastern Pacific ridge building back in over the area, effectively
booting the stubborn upper low out of the Great Basin. For us, we
can expect continued dry weather with a warming trend by the end
of next week if the EPS/GEFS solution verifies.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the
central CA interior over the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.




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