Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
102 FXUS66 KHNX 262053 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 153 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Kern County Mountains including Lake Isabella and Kernville until 11 PM Saturday. Dry fuels, low relative humidity, and stronger terrain-induced winds may cause already-burning fires to quickly spread and could initiate new ones. 2. The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with enhanced fire behavior even with lower wind speeds. 3. Afternoon temperatures drop slightly today before dropping significantly Saturday and will remain below average through Wednesday. 4. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Slopes this evening into Saturday morning with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and wind gusts up to 45 mph. && .DISCUSSION... The ridge that has dominated the southwest for the past several days is being pushed to the east by an incoming trough of the west coast of the CONUS. Along with that trough is a smaller circulation embedding in it`s flow, with drier air associated with it, which will lead to stronger winds and lowered relative humidities of 15-20% for the region as the circulation passes through tonight. The combination of these elements and the very dry fuels throughout our CWA may lead to enhanced fire weather danger through today into Saturday night. This dryness will also lead to the thunderstorm likelihood fall to less than 5% for the week. As the trough moves over California, the high and low temperatures will lower significantly when compared to this morning and what is expected this afternoon. This change is illustrated in the probability for 100 degrees for this afternoon and tomorrow: Fri Sat Bakersfield: 99% 15% Coalinga: 95% 0% Delano: 99% 5% Fresno: 96% 1% Hanford: 97% 0% Madera: 90% 0% Merced: 75% 0% Porterville: 96% 5% Reedley: 95% 1% Visalia: 97% 10% This Sunday is expected to be the coolest day with a 15-50% chance for high temperatures of 95 or higher and a less than 5% chance for triple digits. As we move into the workweek, the ridge is expected to build back into the southwest, bringing back those triple digits, with the valley seeing a 45-75% for 100 degrees or higher by Thursday. As the ridge strengthens, the temperatures will increase and they are expected to remain above normal as we enter August. This ridge may also bring up some monsoonal moisture and may cause more thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada next weekend. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibility will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains, including the areas of Lake Isabella and Kernville until 11 PM Saturday night. This is due to low relative humidities of 15-20% (with the possibility to become lower) and wind gusts of 30-40 mph during the period. These winds are expected to by westerly/upsloping. Fire danger will be critical during this time, with extreme fire behavior expected during the afternoon as the wind picks up speed. Any active fire may spread faster and new fires may start more easily. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 07/25/2024 14:31 EXPIRES: 07/26/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ338. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ595. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather..........EW IDSS/PIO..............................AB weather.gov/hanford