-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
688
FXUS64 KHUN 130105
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have basically dissipated early this
evening. There are clusters well southwest of our area in east MS
and north-northwest entering northern middle TN. These are not
expected to affect our area at this time, but will keep watching.
The one small shower that reached us here at the office managed
0.19 inches just a few minutes. A non-zero chance of thunderstorms
remains, but the chance overnight is 10% or less so have left out
of the forecast. Given the very moist dew points in the lower to
middle 70s and a few areas receiving rain, patchy fog is expected
late tonight. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the upper
60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Fairly typical summertime pattern is in place, much like we have
seen the last several days. A 5h anticyclone along the eastern
Gulf Coast will narrow and lift northward very slowly into
southern MS or southwest AL Monday, and into north AL Tuesday.
This keeps the trough axis and shortwave well west of the MS
River, and ridge rider MCVs moving through the OH Valley into the
central Appalachians. I expect limited convective activity Sunday
into Monday with the ridge placement. But given the strong
instability and moisture, like today, a couple of small clusters
may develop producing outflows that trigger additional
thunderstorms surrounding the original. By Tuesday, one or more
weak MCVs will turn back southwest from the central Appalachians,
sparking convection that could start to migrate southwest into
eastern AL perhaps as far northeast AL and southern middle TN.
High temperatures will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s each
day, especially Tuesday with lows in the lower 70s each morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Without any significant synoptic features to disrupt our current
pattern, the forecast will remain largely unchanged as we head into
the long term forecast. For a majority of the forecast period we will
again find ourself sandwiched between mid level troughing to our
north and ridging to our south. At the surface this will amount to
hot and humid conditions with continued daily chances for
afternoon thunderstorms. While the weather conditions listed above
have become quite familiar for residents of the TN Valley this
summer, their inherent risk still warrants discussing. Starting
with heat and humidity, high pressure to our SE will allow high
dew points in the mid 70s to remain situated. This paired with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day will easily push
apparent temperatures above 100 degrees for most locations. We
will be keeping a close on on Wednesday and Thursday should a Heat
Advisory be needed. Regardless of any heat products, individuals
should continue to practice proper heat and sun safety each day.

While we will retain a low to medium (30-60%) chance of afternoon
shower and thunderstorms each day, the good news is that we are not
forecasting a widespread severe risk at all in the long term
forecast. Rather, diurnal heating will allow for significant CAPE
each afternoon with outflow boundaries being a primary forcing
mechanism for storms. Storms that do fire up will be capable so gusty
outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. For those with
outdoor activities next week make sure to remain weather aware and
remember when thunder roars go indoors.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A cluster of TSRA that has moved into northwest and north central
AL will dissipate by 01Z. Patchy BR or FG is expected from
08-12Z, but not expecting this at either KHSV or KMSL at this
time. VFR conditions are anticipated for most of Sunday, but there
is a low to medium chance of TSRA during the afternoon hours.
With low confidence on exact development areas, have left out of
KHSV and KMSL for now, but may need to add in future updates.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17