Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000 FXUS64 KHUN 190850 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 .NEAR TERM...
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(Today) Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dense cloud cover and heavy rain will continue tracking north through southern Mississippi and south/central Alabama today as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continues to track northeast. The overall trend has continued to show a sharp northeast turn as zonal flow amid a broad upper trough keeps the tropical impacts suppressed to the southeast coastal states. This will keep the axis of the heaviest rain and the majority of flooding impacts south of the forecast area. As for today, will remain dry through most of the morning area wide, but heavy rain begins to impact Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb counties by this afternoon. Based on ensemble guidance and recent discussion from the WPC, feel most confident that any 1-2" total rain amounts will occur in these counties, and areas north of the Tennessee River will struggle to receive more than a few tenths. In fact, northwest Alabama may not see much in the way of rainfall at all with the strong easterly push expected. With PWATs around 2", will not rule out some localized flooding south of the TN river and east of I-65, with the heaviest rain expected to begin this afternoon in these areas. With the increasing cloud cover and chances for rain throughout the afternoon, high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 80s today. In fact, some areas south of the TN River may not even reach 80 degrees. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The heaviest rain should move through the area and exit to the east by the morning hours, and once again any 1-2" amounts should remain south of the TN river and east of I-65. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder overnight in these areas as well, but no severe weather is expected. Additional showers and storms will be possible on the back side of this system as it exits to our northeast later Sunday afternoon. Not expecting this activity to amount to much in the way of rain, but something to keep in mind if planning on spending time outdoors for Father`s Day. High temperatures will be in the 80s and clouds should begin clearing temporarily late Sunday. Will keep an active pattern going in the short term, as upper trough begins to dig over the Midwest and into the lower OH Valley region on Monday. Will spend the first half of the day dry, with high temperatures in several locations climbing back into the upper 80s. A strong cold front will begin pushing rain and thunderstorms, likely in a linear form, into the area by Monday evening. Will have to monitor this system for some stronger storms and flooding concerns, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall from the tropical disturbance. With afternoon/evening instability in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, a moderately unstable airmass will preclude the frontal boundary, and could work to sustain decent updrafts despite a less favorable shear environment. Will keep our eyes on this system, but heavy rain and a few strong wind gusts will be possible within this line of storms that moves through. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 While there are some minor timing discrepancies between medium range guidance, the cold front is expected to move south and east of the area during the morning hours on Tuesday. Rain will be coming to an end at the beginning of the period as northerly flow takes hold of the weather pattern in the wake of the passing cold front. Expect cloud cover to linger through much of the day, keeping temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A drier airmass will settle into the region Tuesday night as high pressure slides through the Ohio Valley, with good radiational heating conditions allowing temps to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The aforementioned high will move into the mid Atlantic states during the day on Wednesday and high pressure is expected to build along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, upper ridging will begin to move eastward from the Plains, placing the TN Valley in northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Surface flow will slowly veer to the south through the day, with moisture return expected by Wednesday night. After a dry day on Wednesday, a return to our summertime pattern will come on Thursday, with diurnally driven convection possible during the afternoons through the end of the period. Temps will rebound to seasonal norms rather quickly, with highs approaching 90 and lows nearing 70 by the end of the upcoming work week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Mid/high clouds will continue to spread into the area from the south heading into the early morning hrs Sat. MVFR cigs near 3K ft will then develop late Sat morning, as a tropical system moves nwd across the cntrl Gulf Coast. PROB30 groups have been maintained for the latter half of the TAF period for possible shra along with reduced vis/cigs below 2K ft. Light/var winds will also become SE near 10kt with higher gusts Sat morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...73 AVIATION...09 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.

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