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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190850
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Dense cloud cover and heavy rain will continue tracking north through
southern Mississippi and south/central Alabama today as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three continues to track northeast. The overall
trend has continued to show a sharp northeast turn as zonal flow amid
a broad upper trough keeps the tropical impacts suppressed to the
southeast coastal states. This will keep the axis of the heaviest
rain and the majority of flooding impacts south of the forecast area.
As for today, will remain dry through most of the morning area wide,
but heavy rain begins to impact Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb
counties by this afternoon. Based on ensemble guidance and recent
discussion from the WPC, feel most confident that any 1-2" total rain
amounts will occur in these counties, and areas north of the
Tennessee River will struggle to receive more than a few tenths. In
fact, northwest Alabama may not see much in the way of rainfall at
all with the strong easterly push expected. With PWATs around 2",
will not rule out some localized flooding south of the TN river and
east of I-65, with the heaviest rain expected to begin this
afternoon in these areas.

With the increasing cloud cover and chances for rain throughout the
afternoon, high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 80s
today. In fact, some areas south of the TN River may not even reach
80 degrees.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The heaviest rain should move through the area and exit to the east
by the morning hours, and once again any 1-2" amounts should remain
south of the TN river and east of I-65. Cannot rule out a few rumbles
of thunder overnight in these areas as well, but no severe weather is
expected. Additional showers and storms will be possible on the back
side of this system as it exits to our northeast later Sunday
afternoon. Not expecting this activity to amount to much in the way
of rain, but something to keep in mind if planning on spending time
outdoors for Father`s Day. High temperatures will be in the 80s and
clouds should begin clearing temporarily late Sunday.

Will keep an active pattern going in the short term, as upper trough
begins to dig over the Midwest and into the lower OH Valley region on
Monday. Will spend the first half of the day dry, with high
temperatures in several locations climbing back into the upper 80s.
A strong cold front will begin pushing rain and thunderstorms, likely
in a linear form, into the area by Monday evening. Will have to
monitor this system for some stronger storms and flooding concerns,
especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall from the tropical
disturbance. With afternoon/evening instability in the 1500-2000 J/kg
range, a moderately unstable airmass will preclude the frontal
boundary, and could work to sustain decent updrafts despite a less
favorable shear environment. Will keep our eyes on this system, but
heavy rain and a few strong wind gusts will be possible within this
line of storms that moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

While there are some minor timing discrepancies between medium range
guidance, the cold front is expected to move south and east of the
area during the morning hours on Tuesday. Rain will be coming to an
end at the beginning of the period as northerly flow takes hold of
the weather pattern in the wake of the passing cold front. Expect
cloud cover to linger through much of the day, keeping temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. A drier airmass will settle into the region
Tuesday night as high pressure slides through the Ohio Valley, with
good radiational heating conditions allowing temps to fall into the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned high will move into the mid Atlantic states during
the day on Wednesday and high pressure is expected to build along
the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, upper ridging will begin to move eastward
from the Plains, placing the TN Valley in northwest flow aloft on the
eastern periphery of the ridge. Surface flow will slowly veer to the
south through the day, with moisture return expected by Wednesday
night. After a dry day on Wednesday, a return to our summertime
pattern will come on Thursday, with diurnally driven convection
possible during the afternoons through the end of the period. Temps
will rebound to seasonal norms rather quickly, with highs approaching
90 and lows nearing 70 by the end of the upcoming work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Mid/high clouds will continue to spread into the area from the south
heading into the early morning hrs Sat. MVFR cigs near 3K ft will
then develop late Sat morning, as a tropical system moves nwd across
the cntrl Gulf Coast. PROB30 groups have been maintained for the
latter half of the TAF period for possible shra along with reduced
vis/cigs below 2K ft. Light/var winds will also become SE near 10kt
with higher gusts Sat morning.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...09


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