Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000 FXUS64 KHUN 040014 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 714 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A pleasant day across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures early this afternoon in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will continue to climb a few degrees with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The upper level pattern features a closed low across the Northern Rockies and another closed low across the Mid-Atlantic. Ridging is in place between these closed lows across the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. Closer to home, mid and upper level flow is generally from the north. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Great Lakes. PW values remain around the 10th-25th percentiles for early October as the dry airmass remains in place. The dry airmass will radiate will overnight and will allow for temperatures to drop down into the mid 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 Dry conditions will continue to feature in the short-term portion of the forecast period. The upper level closed low will remain nearly stationary over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Models indicate a 70-90 kt jet developing along the southern periphery of this closed low near the Georgia/Carolina coastline. This will lead to upper level confluence across the Tennessee valley with subsidence aloft. Models indicate PW values dropping down into the 0.3-0.4 inch range on Tuesday as the dry airmass become even drier. These values will be near minimum values observed for early October climatology. This dry airmass will heat up well during the day and cool off efficiently at night with a big swing in temperatures throughout the day. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning dropping down into the low to mid 40s. The upper level pattern begins to become a bit more progressive on Wednesday as the upper level low currently across the Mid-Atlantic moves out over the Atlantic. The closed low currently across the Northern Rockies will transition into an open wave and will progress southeastward across the northern and central Plains on Wednesday. The associated cold front will move through the Great Plains on Wednesday. Across the Tennessee Valley, the dry airmass will persist with cool morning lows and warm afternoon highs. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the mid to upper 40s. This dry airmass coupled with warm afternoon temperatures will lead to RH values dropping down into the 20-30% range on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Please see the Fire Weather Forecast for further discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 A dry cold front will race through the Tennessee Valley late Thursday into early Friday. With little to no southerly return flow ahead of the front, do not expect any precipitation will be possible with the front. This front will bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the forecast area. Temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will drop down into the low to mid 40s with upper 30s possible in a few locations. This will depend on how elevated winds remain overnight behind the departing front. Highs on Saturday will also be on the cool side with highs only in the mid to upper 60s. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will set up Saturday night into Sunday morning behind the departing front. Lows will drop down into the upper 30s to low 40s with clear skies and light winds. This could potentially be the first frost/freeze of the season. Temperatures will moderate quickly next week as the bulk of the cold airmass retreats back to the north and east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with highs on Monday back in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 713 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period with light winds and a clear sky.
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&& .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MA SHORT TERM....MA LONG TERM....MA AVIATION...AMP.24 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.