Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000 FXUS64 KHUN 160442 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .UPDATE...
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For 06Z TAFS.
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&& .NEAR TERM...
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(Rest of tonight) Issued at 918 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Despite a warm afternoon with highs reaching the 93 to 97 degree range in most locations, temperatures under clear skies and calm winds have dropped into the low to upper 70s already at 8 PM. Dewpoints west of I-65 are remaining in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees at this hour. Further east, dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. With clear skies and light winds expected the remainder of the night, optimal radiation cooling should continue. This looks to set the stage for some patchy fog development after midnight in northwestern Alabama in particular. Further east, models show low level flow from the northeast or east advecting drier air into north central and northeastern Alabama overnight. This drier air should keep fog from forming just east of the I-65 corridor into northeastern Alabama through daybreak. Tweaked dewpoints and temperatures lower after midnight. Think that some fairly widespread lows in the lower 60s look possible east of I-65. This may not even be cool enough, as some upstream observations have dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Otherwise, no changes made to the previous forecast. .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the work week, as the aforementioned H5 ridge continues amplifying and slowly sliding east. The good news is that while highs will be in the low to mid 90s through mid-week, dew point temps will struggle to reach the middle 60s on Monday, and only climb a few degrees more on Tuesday and Wednesday as slightly better low level moisture streams down into the Valley. Expect clear to mostly clear skies on Monday, and an increase in cu Tuesday and Wednesday. Have kept a dry forecast through the short term period, given subsidence and the lack of any real forcing to support shower and storm development. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Northerly winds will remain on the lighter side through Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Big picture forecast for the extended continues dry conditions, with warmer than normal temperatures. Despite a more active northern stream bringing a series of systems over the Pacific NW, and more generalized troughing occurring over the western third of the lower-48, upper ridging will overall maintain itself over the southern states. The existence of this ridging and high pressure over the SE CONUS will continue a string of very warm to hot days (for middle September) and little to no chance of rain. At the beginning of the extended, tropical system Humberto (probably a hurricane at this time) should be located well off of the GA/FL coast, passing dangerously close to Bermuda during Thursday. High pressure otherwise will build southward from the NE CONUS, continuing a warmer than normal trend. One item of interest was the GFS (and to a lesser extent the Canadian), hinting at light shower possibilities on Thursday as a weak boundary traverses the region. Given the dry trend already going, opted dry during this period. One change from Thu into the weekend should be a slight cooler trend. From high temperatures in the mid 90s into the midweek, highs there after should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Normal high/low temperatures by next Sunday for reference (the last day of summer 2019) are around 83/60 -- with forecasts of 92/64.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019 No changes from previous forecast thoughts. Light winds and clear skies later this evening and overnight are expected. Slightly more moist air should remain in place near the KMSL terminal. Coupled with good radiational cooling conditions, think that some brief patchy fog dropping VSBYS to MVFR conditions is possible after 09Z at KMSL. However, with drier air in place at KHSV, leaving MVFR reductions out of the forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at both terminals after 14Z with winds becoming more northeasterly around 5 knots.
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&& .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...KTW For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.

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