Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000 FXUS64 KHUN 270922 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 322 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Shower activity for the most part has ended across the Tennessee Valley for now, given a warm front had moved north of the area. The showers were displaced to our north, heading NE from SW Arkansas to across Nashville and eastern Kentucky. This has brought a noticeably warmer and more moisture laden atmosphere across the forecast area. Temperatures since the midnight hour have risen from the mid/upper 50s, now into the low/mid 60s. Normal highs for today are around 60 for reference. The warm air came with a little fan fair, as light ESE winds veered to the SW and increased into the 10-20 mph range with gusts above 25 mph. SW winds should subside somewhat later today into the 5-15 mph range. Despite more clouds than sun, warm air advection will boost high temperatures later today into the lower 70s most spots, obviously much warmer than a usually cooler late February. The warmer air has lessened an inversion previously above the surface, allowing for more instability to realized with the warmth. With plenty of moisture in the column (precipitable water in the 1.3" range), have to keep in a chance of showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. With shower activity staying on a scattered basis, did not hoist Flash Flood nor Flood Watches this issuance, given that only 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall is expected. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Shower activity should wind down Sat night with a loss of daytime heating and more stable atmosphere. Unseasonably mild conditions for late Feb will continue, with lows only in the lower 60s. For the start of a new week, even warmer conditions despite more clouds than sun are again expected. High temperatures on Sunday should warm into the low/mid 70s most spots. The higher end of this should it occur will challenge standing record high temperatures of 80-1918 in Huntsville and 77-1904 in Muscle Shoals (KMSL will be a close one). The warmth and resultant instability will also bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary to our north will also begin returning southward as a cold front Sun afternoon and evening. Precipitable water amounts in the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range will bring another dose of locally heavy rainfall. Another 3/4 to 1.5 inches of rainfall falling on an already wet ground will increase chances for flooding. A Flash Flood or Flood Watch may be needed for Sun afternoon to early Monday if this wet trend continues. That said, rainfall amounts have backed off somewhat from previous runs, but there is enough to push more rivers/streams into Action or Flood Stage, as well as produce areal or flash flooding. This is something we`ll monitor closely over the next couple of days. Colder air following the front passing before daybreak Mon will be a reality check, as temperatures tumble into the upper 40s late Sun night. Highs on Mon under cloudy skies and a chance of showers will only warm into the mid/upper 50s, and lows Mon night cooling into the mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 The latter half of the global model suites continue to diverge with the evolution of the overall wx pattern over much of the SE states heading into Tue, with the OOZ ECMWF far more aggressive than the latest GFS solution. The ECMWF continues to hint at a sfc wave developing across the NW Gulf, as an upper low/trough axis rotates ewd into the ARKLATEX region Tue morning. THE 00Z GFS on the other hand has more of an open wave over the far wrn Gulf, as a very weak upper shrtwv traverses ewd across the lower SE. The blended guidance continues to favor the more aggressive ECMWF, with sct/perhaps num showers/tstms spreading into the area later in the day Tue, as the sfc low lifts into the srn Atlantic states, while the upper low translates more ENE across the Mid South/mid TN Valley regions. This could result in some locally heavy rainfall late Tue thru Tue night, before rainfall tapers off to the east Wed morning, as the sfc wave passes SE of the area. A few showers may linger on Thu, given some residual moisture in the area. Rainfall amounts Tue/Tue night are lower now given a faster/more progressive blended solution, with QPF totals near 0.5-1.0 inch with maybe locally higher amounts. Given perhaps some type of a clearing trend developing Wed, afternoon highs look to climb into the lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week, while overnight lows trend in the lower 40s. Weak upper ridging over much of the Gulf region will also help keep temps near seasonal trends for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR to IFR conditions due to reduced visibilities and ceilings from light fog/mist and low ceilings between 700 to 1500 feet. Gradual improvements will occur during the day on Saturday, but expect generally MVFR ceilings to continue through most of the daytime hours even as visibilities improve. Some scattered -SHRA will likely develop in the afternoon, but given the limited coverage and the lack of appreciable impacts, have kept a mention out of this TAF issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...09 AVIATION...AMP.24 For more information please visit our website at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.